Jack

pats fan

[Jack @Jack012326]

In light of the Marty Walsh news... #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

ABINGTON (fully reporting)
Lynch 1177 (68.3%)
Roath 545 (31.7%)

A 13.3% swing from 2020. Improvement from 2020, but nowhere near what Roath needs.

[Jessy Han @hjessy_]

We're still waiting on (rainy!) Election Day vote out of Boston, which should drop sometime in the next 30 minutes.

As of now, #MA08 is shaping up as a high single-digit or low double-digit Lynch win.

[Jack @Jack012326]

Dedham fully reporting now:

LYNCH 2424 (52.9%)
ROATH 2162 (47.1%)

A 28% performance from 2020. Man, a lot of people are gonna be kicking themselves after tonight. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 3

Lynch 252 (55.4%)
Roath 203 (44.6%)

Was 68-32 in 2020- again, not too far off from what Roath needs if some other stuff breaks his way. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

In 2026, who on earth knows whether the early vote in a democratic primary is more or less progressive than the Election Day vote. People make arguments both ways.

Based on the few Back Bay/Charlestown precincts we’ve seen, Roath isn’t doing well enough with E-day, but we’ll see

[Jack @Jack012326]

In case people were wondering- the figure that NYT is reporting for Boston in the MA08 race is only the early vote- no precinct-level returns yet.

Early vote in Boston (includes pre-election day mail-ins)

ROATH 4,314 (54%)
LYNCH 3.735 (46%)

#mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

QUINCY fully reporting:

Lynch 6,695 (56%)
Roath 5,264 (44%)

Another stunning- but not quite good enough- result for Roath. A 24% overperformance from 2020! #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

AVON fully reporting:

Lynch 340 (67%)
Roath 168 (33%)

9% overperformance for Roath. Small, but not what he needs. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

First results in WEYMOUTH:

Lynch 255 (62.8%)
Roath 151 (37.2%)

Town was 72-38 in 2020, a 19% overperformance for Roath.

We’re approaching single-digits territory for Lynch, but tough to see him losing at this point. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

In the suburbs, Roath is consistently doing 25-28% better than Goldstein did in 2020. That's a great performance!

But unfortunately, Goldstein lost by 33%, and it remains to be seen whether Roath will be able to find enough juice in Boston to bridge that gap. Southie! #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

WALPOLE and NORWOOD just posted near-final results:

WALPOLE
Lynch 57.7%
Goldstein 42.3%

Was 71-28 Lynch

NORWOOD
Lynch 58%
Roath 42%

Was 72-28 Lynch

Good result for Roath

[Jack @Jack012326]

WALPOLE and NORWOOD just posted near-final results:

WALPOLE
Lynch 57.7%
Goldstein 42.3%

Was 71-28 Lynch

NORWOOD
Lynch 58%
Roath 42%

Was 72-28 Lynch

Good result for Roath

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 3

Lynch 252 (55.4%)
Roath 203 (44.6%)

Was 68-32 in 2020- again, not too far off from what Roath needs if some other stuff breaks his way. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

Correction- Roath running 25% of the 2020 margin in this precinct! Not quite what he needs, but closer.

[Jack @Jack012326]

Correction- Roath running 25% of the 2020 margin in this precinct! Not quite what he needs, but closer.

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 2:
LYNCH 355 (53.7%)
ROATH 306 (46.3%)

Little change from 2020. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 2:
LYNCH 355 (53.7%)
ROATH 306 (46.3%)

Little change from 2020. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 1:

LYNCH 412 (51.2%)
ROATH 387 (48.8%)

Was Lynch +7.4% in 2020- a small overperformance by Roath.

#mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

Another precinct in. Combined results:

LYNCH 166 (66%)
ROATH 86 (34%)

Still not really what Roath needs, but a move in the right direction. We need some votes from Southie! #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

First results from Brockton….

With one precinct reporting:
LYNCH 142 (75%)
ROATH 47 (25%)

This is the first result I’ve seen where it would really be a death knell for Roath if it holds. Trying not to overreact based on one precinct… #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

WHITMAN

LYNCH 294 (65%)
ROATH 158 (35%)

1/4 precincts reporting. Was 72-28 in 2020, so a modest Roath overperformance. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

799 votes here- in 2020, this precinct cast a little over 1000. Roath looks like he’ll get the Boston turnout differential he needs, but the margins in the suburbs may not be there.

Not going to call it yet, but would still rather be Lynch. #mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 1:

LYNCH 412 (51.2%)
ROATH 387 (48.8%)

Was Lynch +7.4% in 2020- a small overperformance by Roath.

#mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

DEDHAM PRECINCT 1:

LYNCH 412 (51.2%)
ROATH 387 (48.8%)

Was Lynch +7.4% in 2020- a small overperformance by Roath.

#mapoli

[Jack @Jack012326]

Incomplete results though, so the potential for some movement.

[Jack @Jack012326]

First results from Easton:
Lynch 310, Roath 252 (55-45).

This town was only just added to the district in 2022, so it isn’t super representative of how other similar towns will vote.

A not great, not terrible result for Roath- he was probably hoping to narrowly win it #mapoli