JACKO

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Trump now finds himself in an entirely new situation with the War in Iran.

He doesn't hold the cards. He has no notable leverage. And he can't simply declare bankruptcy for the seventh time and move on.

And it shows.

Donald Trump is not a statesman. He is not a diplomat. And I think, in many ways, this is what endeared him initially to many of his voters. He was businessman that accumulated billions of dollars of personal wealth through casino's, real estate, television, golf courses, and a multitude of endeavors.

You can say what you will, but at the end of the day, you don't accrue a net worth well beyond a billion, or even hundreds of millions of dollars, without being "successful", so let's put that partisan argument to the side for now.

But all throughout Trump's life, he's held the upper hand. He grew up wealthy. He received significant financial assistance from his father. And he had an effectively unlimited financial safety net in the event of failure. These are not points meant to be political hits, nor are they able to be refuted. They are simply the facts. Reality.

As a result, Donald Trump always had the leverage. He was a trust fund baby. Again, this is simply the truth. It is reported that Fred Trump left his children around a billion dollars when he passed away in 1999. Trust me, if you know beyond a shadow of a doubt you are set for life regardless, you live life differently.

What this means is that Donald Trump, throughout his business career which WAS hyper-successful, never HAD to succeed. He could also walk away if a deal was not in his favor. He, by definition, always held the cards. Generational wealth.

And don't get me wrong, President Trump was savvy in his exploitation of this reality. You'd be a fool to enter a deal you didn't think was highly beneficial to you if you didn't have to make a gamble. That'd be stupid.

In every transaction, every business dealing, it was either in his favor, or he walked.

Because. He. Could.

And when business endeavors failed to pan out? Bankruptcy could be declared. Again, save me the partisan takes, Donald Trump declared bankruptcies on his businesses six times. And he was RIGHT to do so. That's the correct financial decision... but it's an off-ramp. A quick fix.

These same realities - holding all the cards, being able to walk away, having a legal escape valve - do not exist in the quagmire he finds himself in with the Iran War.

The reality facing Donald Trump is one that he has never had to navigate before. Iran does not care that he is wealthy. It's irrelevant. Trump can't simply walk away because Iran would retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and it would destroy Trump's legacy. There is no emergency "bankruptcy-equivalent" escape valve here.

Now, Donald Trump has to sit on the other side of the table at a time when the stakes are the highest they have ever been in his entire life. No training wheels. No safety net. Trump's been thrown right into the deep end with perhaps the most savvy negotiators in the world.

President Trump holds effectively zero leverage with Iran.

There is not a modicum of domestic American support for this war. It was never sold to the American people. Many see this as Israel's war that is not "putting America first". The goals and objectives have changed by the day. For this reason, alongside the unlikely chance of success in the first place, a large-scale ground invasion is not a serious suggestion being put for by anyone with an above room temperature IQ.

Iran holds insurmountable "escalation dominance". If the United States targets Iran's energy infrastructure? Iran will retaliate massively across the Gulf. GCC countries have already made it abundantly clear to Trump that they fear Iran. That they don't trust the US-bought military equipment to protect their infrastructure or civilians. Iran can cut undersea cables. Iran could close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and further cripple maritime shipping. Anything the US can do to hurt Iran, Iran can do tenfold to hurt the global economy.

Reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force? We tried that under Operation Freedom, and it was so ridiculous and stupid that it was canceled within 48 hours. Some are suggesting we try again, but seem to entirely misunderstand reality (as they have throughout the entire conflict). What? Is the United States supposed to effectively occupy the Strait of Hormuz until the end of time? How many vessels per day would be able to navigate the Strait of Hormuz with US naval escorts? What would the costs of this be? Can we adequately protect our sailors? Why wouldn't Iran, again, utilize their escalation dominance and shut down the Bab al-Mandeb or strike Gulf infrastructure? It. Doesn't Work.

The unfortunate reality is that President Trump holds no cards. He has no meaningful leverage. His ONLY option is making concessions at the negotiating table...

Is this something Trump is even capable of navigating in the first place though? A President, one who has made perhaps the gravest mistake in the history of American foreign policy, one who has never experienced these constraints before, one who has a litany of allies ready to turn their backs on him the second he capitulates... A man who's entire legacy will not be, "Trump the Businessman", nor will it be "Trump the President". It will eternally become, "Trump the Failure".

But it's his only choice. The Iran Hawks and Israeli Lobby that surrounds him, and they do, are prepared to claw him to shreds on Fox News and Newsmax. We saw this exact situation play out just this past weekend when initial terms of a potential Memorandum of Understanding was leaked. His so called "allies" in the United States turned their back on him immediately, leaving him with almost nobody remaining. Not after the Epstein Files. Not after this Iran War debacle.

Donald Trump now finds himself in an entirely unfamiliar situation. He doesn't hold the cards. He has no escape valve. And there is no realistic scenario where he can credibly claim victory... The only path forward is the one that will permanently destroy his legacy.

But it's the only way to end this war.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:

Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.

This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.

Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.

The rules built to protect passive investors:

1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.

2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.

3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.

[Mike Levin @MikeLevin]

Follow the money on this one. It is rotten to the core.

The Pentagon just lent $620,000,000 to a tiny North Carolina startup called Vulcan Elements. The company is two years old.

It had fewer than 50 employees.

And three months before the deal was announced, Donald Trump Jr.’s venture firm quietly took a stake in it.

Here is the part the administration tried to bury.

Of the dozens of companies the Pentagon was weighing, Vulcan was the only deal initiated by a top White House aide. That aide was Peter Navarro, a close friend of Trump Jr. The order came down to move fast.

One official put it plainly: The call came from the White House. We have to get this done.

Staff worked late nights to push it through in weeks. Deals like this normally take many months of vetting. And when it closed, Vulcan’s valuation jumped from about 200 million dollars to roughly 2 billion.

A windfall for the investors, including the president’s son.

This is public money. Your money.

Routed through the Pentagon to enrich the president’s family and their friends. The Bush administration’s own chief ethics lawyer called it corruption we pay for.

And there is more coming.

A drone parts company Trump Jr. holds a stake in is also under Pentagon review.

This is not a one-off. It is a pattern. The president’s family is treating the federal Treasury like a private bank, and the bill lands on every taxpayer.

https://t.co/4kB1cZNmlE

[Manatee Research @Manateeres]

Please see our report for our full disclaimer. We have taken a short position in shares of AMPX.

https://t.co/Lxoi51hbph

[InnocenceCapital.AI (🍆,🍆) @InnocenceCapit1]

Maybe the other goatfuckers should have figured out a way to get their hydrocarbons to the sea instead of bribing people to host the World Cup and trying to fuck up pro golf.

[Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump]

Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!

[Paulo Macro @PauloMacro]

https://t.co/9LYfImaIQl

So $220 million in advertising spend was such an emergency that it bypassed competitive bidding rules and went to a Delaware LLC formed days earlier and controlled by her longtime friend and the husband of her chief spokesperson.

This almost exactly (using ad agencies with no competitive bids to pay bribes to politicians) was an actual scandal a decade ago in…

Brazil.

As I been saying for years now: DMs become EMs.

[Chris Hayes @chrislhayes]

The countries where comedians can't mock the leader on late night TV are not really ones you want to live in.

[Governor Newsom Press Office @GovPressOffice]

ALL HAIL CHAIRMAN TRUMP! WITH HIS GLORIOUS 10% PURCHASE OF INTEL, THE SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF AMERICA ENTERS A BOLD NEW ERA OF GOVERNMENT-RUN BUSINESS.

[JACKO @JackHamp]

@OfficialNBARefs so fucking bad your jobs

[(((Tendar))) @Tendar]

Imagine seeing US weapons performing marvelously in the war in Ukraine and by doing so giving the best promotion of the technological edge US weapons theoretically possess, however, only seeing the Trump administration now completely ruining it by showing the world how erratic and unreliable those products are from a political and therefore effectively military point of view.

Nobody in his/her right mind would consider buying US weapons right now, if there is a viable alternative, and I say this as long-time military blogger. For defense and technology companies in Europe, South Korea, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Australia and elsewhere, gold rush times have begun.

Hundreds of thousands of American jobs in the defense sector are now hanging by a thread, because Trump is thinking that he has good relationship with Putin, an individual, who repeatedly bemoaned the fall of the Soviet Empire, and implicitly and explicitly made clear how much he hates the USA for that.

[Harj Taggar @harjtaggar]

Learning Not To Trust the All In Podcast in Ten Minutes:

[austin @jesuissupreme]

Kamala right now

[Ben Hunt @EpsilonTheory]

UnitedHealth chairman & 3 execs netted $102m in stock sales after DOJ investigation notice (Oct 9) and before probe made public (Feb 26).

Non-public by definition, obviously material (stock down >5% on news), blatantly illegal.

If SEC doesn't prosecute these guys, what the fuck are we even doing here? Instead, let's go fine an RIA $100k for not footnoting that the S&P 500 isn't an investable index.
https://t.co/A4nEcFLRhk

[BDK @bdk55]

Sure why not?

[Tang @tang_203]

@bdk55 Last Tim OJ was in the news, rangers won the cup and the Knicks were in Game 7 of the finals. Let’s go.

[Pat Forde @ByPatForde]

Column: After a second high-profile collision between players fans rushing the court in recent weeks, it’s time to get serious about finding a deterrent to court storms. https://t.co/4w0u4Dwpsb

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

When people say that the economy is super strong, please understand…

We are running a HISTORIC deficit.

6.2% of GDP. Never seen before outside of WW2, the GFC or Covid.

If we weren’t running this deficit and balanced the budget, or even got close, GDP would collapse.

[Walker⚡️ @WalkerAmerica]

@SquawkCNBC @jpmorgan It makes sense that Jaimie Dimon brought up money laundering, because JP Morgan is definitely an expert on that…

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Bidenomics