If it seems like there’s been more offense recently, there has, and then well there’s this. Drag on the ball currently lower than any year other than 2019, when baseball broke all kinds of homer records. Super weird considering MLB owns the ball maker, has humidors in every park:
Could this be an approach issue? Sure. He has been more patient this year, which he attributes to his swing not feeling right. Fair enough, but i don’t think it explains suddenly being the worst in the league at hitting pitches down the middle. He may just need to… focus?
If you want a quick summary of why Manny Machado is struggling without diving into the intricacies of a swing, here you go:
A- His intercept point is back, meaning he’s letting the ball travel further than he ever has.
B- he’s straight up not hitting pitches down the middle. The eye test matches the analytics on this one. The Padres have been one of the most aggressive teams down the middle this year, so this is an isolated issue for Machado.
Why is aiming at the center of the zone the optimal strategy in 0-0 counts?
The intuition comes from two key insights:
- Pitchers frequently miss their intended target
- An 0-0 ball is worse than a pitch down the middle