Jacques Groenewald

Father, market follower , reader, my private views and interesting items Liked, understand Grit, sustainable entrepreneurship

[Vivid.🇮🇱 @VividProwess]

The photo that broke the internet in 2026.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Current situation:

1. The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks
2. Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package
3. China has approved a $1.4 trillion stimulus package
4. The Fed is officially ending QT on December 1st
5. The US is issuing~$1.9 trillion in treasures per year
6. Canada is restarting its Quantitative Easing program
7. Global M2 money supply is at a record $137 trillion
8. Global rate cuts are at 320+ over the last 24 months

In what world is another wave of inflation not on its way?

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE GREAT EXODUS: Silicon Valley’s Legends Just Fled AI’s $3.5 Trillion House of Cards

The smartest money in history just executed the largest coordinated retreat from a single technology in financial markets. What they discovered will redefine civilization.

Peter Thiel deleted 537,742 NVIDIA shares. Every single one. The man who turned $500,000 into $1.7 billion with Facebook and predicted the 2000 crash now runs from AI hardware while his own company Palantir rides AI euphoria to 174% gains. That contradiction is the signal.

Michael Burry deployed $1.1 billion shorting NVIDIA and Palantir, then announced fund closure. The investor who called the 2008 housing collapse is making his largest bet ever against AI infrastructure. His options generate 72% returns purely from volatility explosion, not price decline. He expects regime change from certainty to crisis.

SoftBank sold $5.83 billion NVIDIA to fund $22.5 billion for OpenAI, which buys NVIDIA chips. Parse that: they liquidated the stock to fund the customer. This circular architecture requires $140 billion yearly to avoid collapse. When capital inflows decelerate below that threshold, the loop breaks.

Ray Dalio cut NVIDIA 64%. Viking Global exited entirely. Bridgewater, Coatue, sovereign wealth funds from Norway and Canada, all rotating away. Total institutional selling reached $20.4 billion in Q3 while retail drove the stock up 47.6%. That divergence has a name: distribution into strength. It preceded every major crash.

The physics nobody mentions: AI compute demand grows 50% to 100% annually. Energy infrastructure grows 3% to 5%. By 2027, AI consumes 460 terawatt hours, exceeding UK total electricity. The math does not work. Exponential projection meets thermodynamic ceiling.

Thiel survived dot com by recognizing transformative technology can arrive 15 to 20 years before profits. Markets cannot wait that long. NVIDIA trades at 54x trailing earnings versus 20x historical norm. The valuation assumes 80% permanent market share, infinite energy, Taiwan geopolitical stability, and monetization within three years.

November 20 earnings decide everything. Guidance miss above 10% triggers what Burry positioned for: the largest AI infrastructure revaluation in history.

Three prophets with perfect records just ran. The building is still full. Your move.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/ApF0gPSIro

[Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran]

Stock and bond markets climbed walls of worry nonchalantly in 2025, but gold also had its best year since 1979. I am a novice when it comes to gold, but my thoughts on gold as investment and insurance are in this post. https://t.co/KeplE7HUdG

[Jacques Groenewald @JacquesGwald]

@felixprehn AI

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Ratio of the Defensive Consumer Staples ETF to the S&P 500 ETF has moved down to its lowest level on record, below where it stood at the dot-com bubble peak in March 2000. $XLP $SPY

https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih

[Jacques Groenewald @JacquesGwald]

Systemic Risk Scenario: “ETF-Passive Liquidity Meltdown”
The most plausible tail-risk event threatening the entire financial system is a coordinated bond-equity liquidity freeze, triggered by an abrupt Treasury yield surge (e.g., persistent inflation, geopolitical escalation, or debt ceiling impasse). This would overwhelm Authorized Participants (APs), halting ETF creations/redemptions across $18.81 trillion in global AUM—3x the 2020 level—igniting a self-reinforcing spiral.

[Jacques Groenewald @JacquesGwald]

Repo Market Risks: Implications for Financial Stability and ETF Liquidity
The repurchase agreement (repo) market, valued at approximately $11.9-12 trillion in gross volume as of 2024-2025, facilitates short-term secured lending, primarily using U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as collateral. For Authorized Participants (APs) in the ETF ecosystem, repos provide 3-5x leverage to finance creation/redemption baskets, enabling $1-2 trillion daily notional activity across $18.81 trillion in ETF assets. However, this reliance introduces acute vulnerabilities, exacerbated by ongoing Quantitative Tightening (QT) runoff and reserve scarcity.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

All Hell Breaks Loose In Repo Markets... And Why A Historical Meltup Could Follow https://t.co/qJwgtWeRvR

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🚨Oracle's risk of DEFAULT is surging:

Oracle's 5-year Credit Default Swap spiked to 81 basis pts, the highest in 2 YEARS.

Credit traders are buying protection against Oracle defaulting on its debt at the fastest pace since 2023.

Can Oracle sustain its aggressive AI buildout?

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

This is the first Michael Burry post that hasn't disappeared within 24 hours.

What's the significance of this one and why is he leaving it up?

[Gareth Soloway @GarethSoloway]

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) continues to raise cash, now having $381 billion. I still remember in 2008 when Warren Buffet used his cash pile to bail out financials like Goldman Sachs (GS) for an epic deal. He knows something big is coming and is preparing.

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

This time it’s different?

[Jacques Groenewald @JacquesGwald]

@KobeissiLetter Passive investing has increased the risk when markets turn down through Authorised Participants who are creating share for EFT and provide liquidity in bull market - the size of liquidity providers balance sheet vs passive investing is most unbalanced ever

[Jacques Groenewald @JacquesGwald]

@Speculator_io @grok rank these data centre operators on by EV/EBITDA and Debt / EBITDA in a table

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

“Money is essentially an information system for labor allocation, so it has no power in & of itself. it's like a database for guiding people as to what they should do.”

— Elon Musk

[Nostalgic Hubb @NostalgicHubb]

A Nostalgic Look Back at the 1990s
A Thread 🪡

1. Hands-free telephone headset tv commercial from 1993

[Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran]

It is too early to even call this the tariff cycle, but if history is any guide, there will be aftershocks, more negative than positive, near term economic damage and a long term effect on both the size of the economic pie as well as who gets what slice. https://t.co/bwZtRExVb3

[Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran]

I revisit my Tesla valuation from January 2024 (where I valued the stock at $182) and revalue the company with a less soaring EV story, competition from BYD and the backlash to Musk's politics to arrive at a value of about $150 a share. https://t.co/sF3DKGoM5V

[Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran]

On the day that Nvidia has the market's attention, and AI is the talk of the town, I look at the personal disruption (to you work and jobs) that is likely to come from AI, and what you can do to stay ahead of the game. https://t.co/V3kS2YtnNh