Do NOT Trade the SpaceX IPO Until You Watch This
Are you about to blindly jump into the SpaceX IPO the second it hits the tape, praying to the market gods for a quick explosive move higher?
Hint: If that’s your game plan, you might want to hand your wallet over to Mother Market, because she will absolutely eat you alive in the first 30 seconds [01:25].
I just watched a 5-minute value-packed tactical breakdown from my partner and SMB Capital co-founder, Steve Spencer. @sspencer_smb has been trading hot tech IPOs since the dot-com bubble [01:21]. I marvel at his recall on the trading of past IPOs, going back all the way to the late 90’s. He is like one of the golfers interviewed after a round at the Masters who can relive every shot in detail when interviewed- the lie, the distance, the club, the wind, the shape.
Steve has seen it all—the euphoria, the traps, and the massive transfers of wealth from retail gamblers to institutional pros. With the massive hype around SpaceX being priced at $135 a share [01:16], everyone and their barber wants a piece. But you cannot trade a historic IPO with a retail mindset. You need a professional game plan.
Here are the heavy-hitting trading rules Steve laid out for the trading community before SpaceX opens for trading:
1. Hands Off the Opening Print!
The absolute biggest rookie mistake you can make is trying to buy or sell the exact microsecond the stock opens on the tape [00:48].
The Competition: When SpaceX opens—likely gapping up somewhere between $150 and $175 [01:21]—you are competing directly against elite algorithms and professional firms like ours [01:31]. We have the speed, the tech, and the infrastructure to execute and exit in the blink of an eye [01:31].
Avoid the Hole: If you try to execute right at the open, the price will be wildly volatile, slippage will crush you, and you risk starting your day in a massive financial hole [01:44]. Relax. Take a breath. There will be hours and days of clean trending opportunities after the initial chaos settles [01:44].
2. Map Out Your Day 1 Tactical Key Levels
Because a brand-new IPO has no historical chart, standard technical indicators are completely useless [02:56]. Instead, you must build your game plan around the only prices that actually matter:
The Opening Print Price: This is your line in the sand for the first 15 to 30 minutes [02:02]. If the stock drops below the opening print, pros will aggressively short it on momentum [02:17]. If the stock dips initially but rips back above the opening price, that is your cue to buy the upward momentum [02:44].
The 5-Minute High & Low: Let the first five minutes print [02:56]. Mark the high and the low of that range on your chart—these are your definitive areas to judge institutional supply and demand [04:12]. A clean break above or below these levels will give you highly predictable momentum legs [03:23, 03:38].
3. Track the "Magic" Institutional Milestone
In trading, large psychological round numbers and structural milestones dictate real order flow. For SpaceX, the number is $153 per share [04:55].
The $2 Trillion Cap: $153 isn't a random chart line; it represents exactly a $2 Trillion market capitalization for the company [05:02].
How to Trade It: If SpaceX opens above $153 and pulls back to it, institutions will likely defend that valuation, making it a high-probability support level for a bounce [05:11]. If it opens below $153 and rallies up to it, expect heavy supply from IPO allocators looking to lock in profits at that massive milestone [05:22].
4. Respect the Flooding Retail Supply
This isn't your standard tech IPO where 99% goes to institutional hands. 30% of the SpaceX IPO allocation is being placed directly with retail investors [04:25]. That means roughly 165 million shares are sitting in the hands of everyday people [04:42]—many of whom are going to immediately look to "flip" their shares for a quick buck the moment they see a profit [04:25]. Anticipate real, heavy overhead retail supply hitting the market on day one [04:49].
An IPO as historic as SpaceX is a volatile arena. It has the power to make your month, or completely destroy your capital if you treat it irresponsibly. Do not act like a piker chasing the opening bell hype. Rely on your PlayBook, map out your levels at the opening print, the 5-minute extremes, and the $153 milestone, and execute with absolute discipline [02:02, 04:55].
Protect your trading runway, stay patient, and let the market prove itself to you first. Now go get ready.
#SpaceXIPO #DayTrading #IPOTrading #SMBCapital #RiskManagement
Do NOT Trade the SpaceX IPO Until You Watch This https://t.co/gr9rdfb0X0 via @YouTube
Someone was tracking the killer on camera.
When he makes it to the street they actually pan the camera to the right to continue to track him.
Watch for yourself, they know more than they let on 👇