Jake

one life one love.

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

SpaceX a clôturé son premier jour de cotation à 2 100 milliards de dollars, +19%. Tout le monde regarde le chiffre. Personne ne regarde ce qu'il price réellement.

Laissez-moi vous dire ce que le marché vient d'acheter, et pourquoi je pense que cette boîte vaudra 30 à 50 trillions d'ici 5 ans.

D'abord, le symbole. Cette IPO est un référendum. D'un côté, 20 ans de discours sur la décroissance, la sobriété, la redistribution, la fin de l'histoire gérée par des comités. De l'autre, un homme qui a dit "je vais rendre l'humanité multiplanétaire", que tout le monde a traité de clown, et qui vient de créer la plus grosse entreprise cotée de l'histoire en partant d'un entrepôt à El Segundo. Le marché a voté. Le wokisme avait des départements RH, SpaceX avait des fusées. Les fusées ont gagné.

Ensuite, la mécanique économique, parce que c'est là que tout le monde se trompe. Les analystes valorisent SpaceX comme une entreprise de lancement plus Starlink. C'est comme valoriser Internet en 1995 sur le marché du fax. Starship ne réduit pas le coût du kilo en orbite de 20%, il le divise par 100. Et chaque fois dans l'histoire qu'un coût d'infrastructure est divisé par 100, ce n'est pas le marché existant qui grossit, ce sont des industries entières qui naissent. Le coût du calcul divisé par 100 a donné Internet, le smartphone, l'IA. Le coût de l'orbite divisé par 100 va donner une économie spatiale complète.

Faisons la liste de ce qui devient rentable quand le kilo en orbite coûte le prix d'un billet d'avion. Les data centers orbitaux, avec énergie solaire continue et refroidissement gratuit, au moment exact où l'IA fait exploser la demande énergétique terrestre. La fabrication en microgravité de semi-conducteurs, de fibres optiques, d'organes imprimés impossibles à produire sous gravité. Le tourisme orbital de masse, puis les hôtels lunaires, qui passeront du fantasme au business plan exactement comme la croisière de luxe au 20ème siècle. Le transport point à point terrestre, Paris-Tokyo en 40 minutes. L'industrie minière des astéroïdes, dont un seul corps de classe M contient plus de métaux que tout ce que l'humanité a extrait depuis le néolithique. Et Mars en ligne de mire, pas comme destination touristique, mais comme le plus grand projet d'infrastructure jamais entrepris, avec tout ce que ça implique de demande en énergie, matériaux, robotique, IA.

SpaceX ne participera pas à ces marchés. SpaceX possède le péage d'entrée de tous ces marchés. C'est AWS, mais pour la civilisation. Apple vaut 3 500 milliards en vendant des rectangles de verre sur une seule planète. Le premier monopole d'accès à une frontière infinie à 30 ou 50 trillions dans 5 ans, ce n'est pas de l'exubérance, c'est une simple règle de trois sur l'expansion du marché adressable.

Et maintenant, la partie que je préfère. Ce futur n'a pas besoin de bureaucrates. Il n'y a pas de comité consultatif en orbite. Pas de commission Théodule sur Mars. Chaque dollar de cette nouvelle économie sera créé par des ingénieurs, des techniciens, des soudeurs, des pilotes, des entrepreneurs. Les diplômés en gestion de la norme vont devoir apprendre un métier utile, et franchement, c'est une excellente nouvelle pour eux aussi : construire est infiniment plus fun que contrôler.

Parce que c'est ça, le vrai signal d'aujourd'hui. Pendant 50 ans on nous a vendu un futur rétréci : moins d'énergie, moins d'enfants, moins d'ambition, gérer le déclin proprement. Et là, d'un coup, le plus gros actif financier du monde est un pari sur l'abondance, l'expansion et l'aventure. Le pessimisme vient de passer en position vendeuse sur lui-même.

Le futur sera méga fun. Il y aura des hôtels avec vue sur la Terre, des honeymoons en orbite, des gamins qui diront "papa, c'était comment avant les fusées réutilisables" comme on dit "c'était comment avant Internet". Et quelque part dans les années 2030, un humain marchera sur Mars en livestream devant 5 milliards de personnes, et ce jour-là plus personne ne se souviendra du nom d'un seul de ses détracteurs.

Achetez de l'optimisme. C'est encore sous-valorisé.

[blue @bluewmist]

A salary is a drug they give you to forget your dreams.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

Never give up

[Anmol @anmoldsg]

SpaceX IPO is finally here tomorrow. What a time to be alive. History is going to be made tomorrow.

The world will get its first public Trillionaire person. Billions are going to be coming into stock market over the next few weeks.

Many people will be millionaires tomorrow, and many will also become broke. You decide which side you will be on.

WE ARE IN THE GREATEST TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT MANKIND HAS EVER WITNESSED.

Either you risk your balls now or stay broke forever.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is absolutely insane:

The SpaceX IPO has now drawn more than $70 BILLION worth of retail orders alone.

SpaceX is raising $75 billion, making retail interest ALONE enough to nearly fill the entire sale.

To put this in perspective, the previous record IPO was Saudi Aramco in 2020 at $29.4 billion.

This means that retail interest in SpaceX is now 2.4 TIMES larger than the total amount raised in the previous largest IPO in history.

As a result, SpaceX has announced that 20% of their IPO will be allocated to retail investors, following through on @elonmusk's vision to democratize the record IPO.

Nothing even remotely near what SpaceX is about to do has ever happened.

Friday will be a historic day.

[Mindset Machine  @mindsetmachine]

You don’t find confidence.
You build it through doing hard things consistently.

[Jake @Jakewhitcomb_]

🧐🧐🧐

[NoName @WhaleNoName]

🚨 SPACEX IPO IS A GIFT - BUT NOT FOR YOU 🚨

In 2012 Meta went public with the same energy - everyone called it a generational opportunity

Then stock dropped 73% in the first 100 days

Everyone who bought the IPO funded the exit of everyone who built the company

Now look at SpaceX

June 12 SpaceX goes public at $1.75T valuation

Insiders hold 95% of all shares - $1.66T of private wealth waiting for a public market to sell into

You are that market

You are the liquidity they've been waiting for

In just 60 days the first wave of insider shares unlocks

And the schedule only accelerates from there

By November - 93% of eligible insider shares can already be sold

Remember Michael Burry?

The man who shorted the housing market in 2008 while everyone laughed at him

Right now he's saying the situation is far worse than anyone admits

And his positions speak for themselves - $912M in Palantir puts and $186M in Nvidia puts extended into 2027

He's positioned for exactly what comes after the unlock

I don't think I need to explain what fate awaits the S&P 500 under these circumstances

If you've been following me closely you knew when and why S&P 500 would start correcting

Many of my followers also took profit from the GOLD pump

The next stock market updates will be the most important ones

The reason is simple - we're entering a correction phase

Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.

"So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

[Jake @Jakewhitcomb_]

I like when money makes a difference but it doesn’t make you different

[☔ @Whotfismick]

So basically, companies pay Youtube to show ads and we pay Youtube to not show ads

[Leni @lenion]

🚨 WARNING: THE SPACEX IPO IS THE BIGGEST TRAP OF 2026

Read this post carefully before buying SpaceX shares

In 4 days, $SPCX will debut on Nasdaq

The biggest IPO in history, with a valuation of around $1.8 trillion

You may have noticed that demand has already exceeded $150 billion, while the public float is only 4-5%

And I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the stock could easily jump 20-50% in the first days or weeks purely because of FOMO and the limited share supply

But after that, the picture could change dramatically!

1. SpaceX didn't use the standard 180-day lock-up

Instead, the S-1 includes a phased unlock schedule

Insiders, employees, and early investors will be able to sell shares in stages starting in August:

- August 21 (70 days) - +7%
- September 10 (90 days) - +7%
- September 25 (105 days) - +7%
- October 10 (120 days) - +7%
- October 25 (135 days) - +7%

2. On top of that, they removed the profitability requirement and are adding SpaceX to major indexes just 5 days after the IPO, while the usual waiting period is 90 days

That forces 401(k) pension funds and passive index funds to buy SpaceX shares at inflated IPO prices and keep holding them throughout any decline

3. On top of that, there are major share releases after the Q2 earnings report (August) and Q3 earnings report (November)

If the stock is trading 30% above the IPO price after Q2, a performance bonus will kick in and another +10% will be unlocked

This staggered selling structure reduces the chance of one massive crash, but it creates several waves of selling pressure between August and November

For comparison: when Meta went public in 2012 (one of the top 3 largest IPO in U.S. history, with a $104 billion valuation)

The stock fell more than 60% within a few months after the IPO due to lock-up expirations and market concerns about its ability to monetize its business

And there's one very important thing you need to remember!

4. The company is still unprofitable, posting roughly a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025

Passive funds (Nasdaq-100) will become forced buyers, but at the first sign of bad news they'll become forced sellers

That's why I'm warning you not to become exit liquidity for insiders and VCs who have already made huge money from private funding rounds

In the short term, the IPO looks very attractive for traders who know how to speculate

But if you're planning to hold, you need to clearly understand this: August through November could bring serious volatility and a major correction

I've said this before, and the cycle is still playing out exactly according to plan

Turn on notifications and drop your thoughts below

The next phase is gonna be very important

[blue @bluewmist]

Avoid the cheap dopamine hit of announcing everything to people. Life is easier when no one knows about you.

[Jake @Jakewhitcomb_]

Thought dump:

There is something about the game that is attractive - people don’t want to play a game knowing they will already win. Lose interest

[Justin Bieber @justinbieber]

crazy to think @skylrk audio is almost here. stay tuned :)))))))))))))))))) xoxoxo

[Jake @Jakewhitcomb_]

Burbs awesome

[Jake @Jakewhitcomb_]

Love yours

[Vala Afshar @ValaAfshar]

Thinking is difficult, that's why most people judge. —Carl Jung

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

My portfolio is ready

See you Monday

[The Stoic Cult @the_stoic_cult]

@bluewmist Poverty teaches resourcefulness. Wealth teaches comfort. Do not mistake ease for virtue.