James At Langton, ACA

Financial Analyst & Chartered Accountant focusing on the UK leisure industry
All tweets are my own, don't take as advice

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Calastone fund flows data shows continued net outflows from UK-focused equity funds

Profit taking after the recent UK market rally prompted a £1.11bn outflow from UK-focused funds, the worst net selling from this sector since June 2022

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

ECB expected to cut rates today. The graph below shows how rate expectations have been delayed and reined in over time, with rates set to remain higher for longer

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

May's Barclaycard consumer spending data also indicates a fall in margins in Travel as consumers appear to be trading down

Travel spend growth was 4.7% YoY in May, outpaced by transaction growth of 6.6%

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Barclaycard May consumer spending data shows Hospitality & Leisure spend up 2.7% YoY with transaction growth up 1.6%

Perhaps the most alarming trend is the continued fall in restaurant spending, down 15.7% YoY in May, 13.1% in April and 12.6% in March

[Mark Brumby @brumbymark]

#RBG: Spurns NGHT approach. Says it 'has concluded that the Nightcap Proposal is incapable of being delivered.' The proposal was 'subject to multiple equity fundraisings by Nightcap' and would need 'the support of the Company's and Nightcap's respective lenders.'

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

BRC-NielsenIQ data shows Shop Price annual inflation eased to 0.6% in May, down from 0.8% in April

Non-Food remained in deflation at -0.8%

Food inflation decelerated to +3.2%, but remains stickier

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

ICAEW's chart below illustrates how a 16.7% fall in energy prices between April 2023 & April 2024, have partially offset core inflation of 3.9%, food price rises of 2.8% and alcohol & tobacco prices rises of 8.1%, to result in annual CPI of 2.3%

Inflation hasn't fully gone away

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

UK Flash PMI comes in at 52.8 in May, down from 54.1 in April

UK businesses reported the softest increase in average selling prices for over three years in May and ongoing hiring challenges meant that the rate of job creation remained only marginal

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Keyword Studios $KWS possible cash offer of 2,550p per share is good news for the UK listed games developer segment, Frontier Developments $FDEV +7.5% in reaction

The offer for KWS is x3 revenue, currently FDEV is being valued by the market at x1 revenue...

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Ryanair's $RYA comments indicate that demand may be faltering slightly YoY for summer 24, resulting in more 'price stimulation'

This is contrary to Barclaycard data showing resilient spend on holidays

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Ryanair $RYA comments on summer 2024 outlook: "demand is positive, with bookings trending ahead of last year. Recent pricing is softer than we expected, with Q1 requiring more price stimulation than last year...outcome will be heavily dependent on close-in peak S.24 pricing"

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Big week for US Fed interest rate decision making coming up

Mon - New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey of consumers’ inflation expectations
Tues - Labor Department’s report on producer prices
Wed - US CPI reading (3.4% expected in April, down from 3.5% in March)

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Interesting to see Marston's $MARS share price soar ahead of its results tomorrow

Shares were just 28p a week ago, currently at 34-35p

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Interesting chart from the @ICAEW this week showing the long-term productivity decline in the public sector

A lot of the gains made in the last decade were wiped out by the pandemic, when many public services were closed or curtailed

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Recent restructuring proposals from Tasty $TAST & Revolution Bars $RBG appear to be CVAs in all but name

'Non-critical' creditors (somewhat insulting term) have been disadvantaged on purpose

Likely to impact the terms offered by suppliers, both critical & otherwise, going fwd

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Encouraging UK GDP figures today, suggests the economy is entering a period of stronger growth

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Data from US Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows traders are increasingly betting that £GBP will fall in the coming months amid growing conviction that Bank of England will cut interest rates before US

Chart from FT below indicates BoE to start cutting rates in the summer

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

Calastone Fund Flow Index shows a booming ISA season, with inflows to equity funds 5x larger than 2023 at £1.93bn

Bad news for London though - Global, North America & European funds are in favour, while Emerging Markets and UK are out #investing #equities #stockmarkets

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

JD Wetherspoon $JDW shares +3% on its Q3 update, will be hoping for better weather in its summer Q4 to boost sales, cost inflation abating, better visibility regarding labour pressures post NLW increase

[Mark Brumby @brumbymark]

#JDW Q3 Conf Call. Calendar 2024. Jan & Feb poor, next 2 months steady. Weather unhelpful. Underlying LfL (adj. for fall of Bank Hols) c5.5% to 6%. Says no plans for further large disposals. Hotels lapping tough comps. Growth slower than last year but will open more.

[James At Langton, ACA @JamesAtLangton]

UK Hotels: Travelodge (y/e Dec 23) & Whitbread $WTB
(y/e Feb 24) reported FY numbers

Both saw profit significantly up YoY, driven by increase in room rates

Hotel performance is cyclical, with WTB signalling a tougher Q1 it might be that we've already seen the top of a cycle...