James Chappel

Father, senior warden, historian. Working on a study of CS Lewis for Basic Books

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@chrisjudetaylor maybe it happened more than once but it happened at columbia around 2015. the speaker was samuel weber. maybe he was talking ABOUT derrida but i remember it vividly (i think though he was talking about Benjamin)

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@wrmead @ufhamilton I am writing a book on Lewis and the Second World War should the group ever want an interlocutor or to read a draft chapter! He is so good to think with.

[Dan Walden @dwaldenwrites]

For @the_point_mag I wrote one if the most personally important essays I’ve ever written. My experience teaching great books has been utterly transformative, and I think that if you’re on the left you should be all in on it. https://t.co/3ZAXbrA86u

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

My thoughts on Charles Murray and his new book on religion in @commonwealmag https://t.co/EujzZ5YGie

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@gabrielwinant i find it hard to visualize what is happening with the stream

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

it's official! my book on CS Lewis and World War II, coming to fine bookstores near you, late 2027 or early 2028

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@johnmilbank3 Have you or other RO-folks written about CS Lewis, who comes up here and was also a Magdalen idealist of a sort? I'm writing a book on Lewis, curious about that lineage.

[Freakonomics @Freakonomics]

A conversation with “Golden Years” author James Chappel.

To get subscriber-only episodes, sign up for SiriusXM Podcasts+ on Apple Podcasts here: https://t.co/o3iOkdKouO, or on other apps here: https://t.co/36R6pPdCMj.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

I awoke this morning gravely concerned about New York City. I thought “What has NYC become that an avowed socialist who has supported defunding the police, whose solution to lowering food prices is city-owned supermarkets, who doesn’t understand that freezing rents will only reduce the supply of housing, who has no experience managing an organization -- let alone a city with a $100+ billion budget and a $2 trillion economy -- and who believes chants for ‘Globalizing the Intifada’ are acceptable, wins the Democratic Primary.

After speaking to those who supported @ZohranKMamdani, I believe that he won the primary largely not due to his policies, but rather because he is a superb politician who ran a remarkable and inspiring campaign. He is intelligent and articulate. He is young and charming, and he successfully played down incriminating @X posts and statements from his past, pitching a joyful campaign of unity.

And he won because the competition was very weak. His best competitor sat back and did not run a real campaign, relying on name recognition, early favorable polling and keeping a low profile to make it through. Not a strategy that I have ever seen work, but so be it.

The Democratic primary voter is clearly tired of the Democratic politics of the past and its aging and over-the-hill leadership – Who isn’t? [As a case in point, how embarrassing is it to watch aging Dems fall in line with their tweets of support for Mamdani, as they desperately try to defend their seats from the far left?] And therefore, without any real competition, Zohran and his attractive personal qualities and campaign skills magically make him the candidate of the future.

The problem, however, is that his policies would be disastrous for NYC. Socialism has no place in the economic capital of our country. The ability for NYC to offer services for the poor and needy, let alone the average New Yorker, is entirely dependent on NYC being a business-friendly environment and a place where wealthy residents are willing to spend 183 days and assume the associated tax burden. Unfortunately, both have already started making arrangements for the exits.

Mamdani is right that much about NYC is broken. The City has gotten much less safe while the cost of living here has become increasingly unattainable for many. We pay more for less. Unfortunately, his headline campaign promises of frozen rents and cheaper food from city-owned markets, among others, are certain to fail.

A mayor who disrespects the NYPD and has called for their defunding will get less effective policing, and Bratton’s ‘broken window theory’ will operate in reverse. A mayor who condones hate speech will incentivize more hate speech and violence. Words matter, and yes, they can inspire people to kill as we have recently tragically seen in our country and around the world.

New York City under Mamdani is about to become much more dangerous and economically unviable. Unlike our Federal government, NYC cannot print money, and this Federal Government won’t bail NYC out if things go bad. In fact, Mamdani would be a windfall for the Republican Party as NY becomes another failed major city run by Democrats alongside Seattle, Chicago, LA, and SF et al as Senator Fetterman so eloquently stated today, "I'd describe it as Christmas in July for the GOP."

So why did I become optimistic later this morning? The answer is that NYC has woken up in the last 24 hours. The substantial majority of NYC residents understand that socialism is a failed system, that rent freezes will destroy our housing base and shrink the affordable housing supply while killing new construction, and that an anti-capitalist Mayor will destroy jobs and cause businesses and wealthy taxpayers that have enabled NYC to balance the budget to move elsewhere. If 100 or so of the highest taxpayers in my industry chose to spend 183 days elsewhere, it could reduce NY state and city tax revenues by ~$5-10 billion or more, and that’s just my industry. Think Ken Griffin leaving Chicago for Miami on steroids.

The good news is that there are other charismatic, intelligent, articulate, handsome, charming, young yet more experienced and, importantly, more centrist politicians who are New York residents eligible for office. There are also extremely talented members of the NY business community who could be superb mayors, Bloomberg being the reference standard from the past.

And the setup is extremely attractive for a run for mayor. There are only 132 days until the election, which means the commitment of time to run is de minimis. This will be the most closely watched mayoral election in NYC in decades, perhaps ever, which, particularly in the social media and podcast era creates the opportunity for a new candidate to garner immediate name recognition, enormous media interest, and the visibility needed to get elected.

Importantly, there are hundreds of million of dollars of capital available to back a competitor to Mamdani that can be put together overnight (believe me, I am in the text strings and the WhatsApp groups) so that a great alternative candidate won’t spend any time raising funds.

So, if the right candidate would raise his or her hand tomorrow, the funds will pour in. I am sure that Mike Bloomberg will share his how-to-win-the-mayoralty IP and deliver his entire election apparatus and system to the aspiring candidate so that the candidate can focus all of his or her energy on the campaign.

One unfortunate fact, as far as I understand, is that the candidate will have to be a write-in as I believe that none of the current candidates established a nominating committee if they were to withdraw, which means that no one can take their spot on the ballot. This is such an important election, however, that I believe the write-in requirement could actually turn into an important call to action that brings people in throngs to the polls. It therefore won’t be the game stopper it would normally be in a typical election.

As a result, the risk/reward of running for mayor over the next 132 days is extremely compelling as the cost in time and energy is small, and the upside is enormous. If the candidate does not win, there is no harm, no foul, because the perceived probability of beating the Democratic nominee in a NYC mayoral election is extremely small. Therefore, there is no reputational risk to losing this election, and the corresponding reputational benefits are extraordinary whether one wins or loses.

If the candidate wins, this is obviously a huge home run for the City and the candidate, but it is also an opportunity to save the Democratic Party from itself, grabbing the wheel just before the party goes even further off the cliff. The new mayor would be a national superhero for the City, for the Party, and for the country.

For the aspiring politician, there is no better way to get name recognition, build relationships with long-term donors, and to showcase oneself than to run for mayor over the next 132 days. This election is already global front page news. For the aspiring young candidate, the amount of publicity and the massive followers to be gained are of incalculable long-term value whether they win or lose, and whatever they choose to do in the future, business, politics or otherwise.

And there is a defensive reason for a politician to run. For the more centrist Democrat politician, a Mamdani win is very bad for your next election. As the Party veers further to the left, the Party’s backing for your future candidacy deteriorates substantially as Mamdani and AOC take control of the Party.

In my experience, opportunities with minimal downside that don’t require huge investments of time while offering massive upside get filled. If you were ever thinking about running for office, or running for a higher office than you currently hold, this is likely the best opportunity that you are going to have.

All of the above is not just theory, as I have a superb candidate who I believe can win who meets all of the criteria, but if I were to say his name or even reach out to him, it would have a negative effect on his candidacy, as I am a supporter of President Trump, and that alone taints anyone I would recommend for many and perhaps most NYC Democratic Party members. So rather than my making suggestions, I welcome yours.

Who is your best centrist candidate who could go toe-to-toe with Mamdani on the campaign trail and on the debate stage? Let’s crowdsource the names and then do a poll.

If someone is ready to raise their hand, I will take care of the fundraising.

This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the right candidate. More importantly, it is an opportunity to save our City and be a superhero. Life is short and you must dare to be great.

The time is now.

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

I’m sharing my slide deck on the demographic future of humanity,

🔗 Slides: https://t.co/geZQFXwN8h

prepared for the keynote address I will give tomorrow to the 7th EBRD and CEPR Research Symposium on “The Economics of Demographic Change”:

🔗 Symposium: https://t.co/L9Hn1fKA8A

Here are a few key ideas I’ll be discussing tomorrow, some of which even economists tracking population trends may not fully appreciate:

1️⃣ Fertility is falling everywhere: rich and poor countries alike, booming and stagnating economies, secular and religious societies. The decline is happening far faster than anyone anticipated, even me, ten years ago!

2️⃣ For example, Colombia’s fertility rate is 1.06, Iran’s is 1.44, and Turkey’s is 1.48, all of which are below the U.S.

3️⃣ The decline accelerated around 2014, well before the COVID pandemic.

4️⃣ As a result, humanity’s fertility is likely already below the replacement rate.

5️⃣ Many assume the replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. That’s true for rich, advanced economies. But not for emerging economies, where selective abortion and higher young female mortality push the replacement rate higher. Thus, for humanity, the replacement rate is closer to 2.2.

6️⃣ The 2024 UN World Population Prospects are riddled with data and forecasts that, frankly, make little sense to my coauthor Patrick Norrick (at @AEI) and me.

7️⃣ Most of the differences in economic growth among advanced economies over the past 35 years can be attributed to demographic factors. Once adjusted for this, Japan’s economic performance is roughly on par with the U.S. (See my paper with Gustavo Ventura, @King_ofSweden, and Wen Yao, The Wealth of Working Nations):

🔗https://t.co/lm2iigVk7E

There are many other ideas (I could talk about this for hours!), but here’s the punchline: the world’s fertility crisis is worse than you thought, even after considering you already thought it was bad.

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@cafreiman do you trust the methodology here? the link is broken. i have no idea how this information is knowable, most syllabi are not public. Number 10 is "The Tragedy of the Commons," that's not even a book

[Madoc Cairns @MadocCairns]

"This is the reason for hope: we are able to hope because we know the Father is waiting for us, He sees us,&He always leaves the door open.

Dear brothers& sisters..let us ask God the Father for the grace that we too can find our way back home"

from Francis' last catechesis. RIP

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@timurkuran glad to have this solidarity from a fellow duke professor!

[Senate Judiciary Democrats 🇺🇸 @JudiciaryDems]

Free Mahmoud Khalil.

[Peter Beinart @PeterBeinart]

We are witnessing the greatest assault on campus free speech in decades--and many of the centrist/center-right commentators who once raged about "cancel culture" are completely silent

[Nathan J Robinson @NathanJRobinson]

Social Security is not a Ponzi scheme. Using new payments to meet existing obligations is not a "Ponzi scheme." A Ponzi scheme is inherently doomed, requiring impossible endless growth and deceiving investors, whereas SS is permanently sustainable through small adjustments.

[Boston Review @BostonReview]

The Social Security system, more than any other single institution, keeps the United States from becoming a truly Dickensian world of poverty and despair.

@JamesChappel on why it is time to fight fire with fire:

https://t.co/82aIHxFM4T

[Cindy Wooden @Cindy_Wooden]

#PopeFrancis: "This isn't dogma, just my thought: I like to think of hell as being empty. I hope it is."

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@MatthewSitman i did not like

[James Chappel @JamesChappel]

@IVMiles