Janis

Just an average idiot trying to make it big
🧡

[Janis @janiscapital]

The mstr rug from @Polymarket interns (which is what it was, i guess) is actually very damaging for the plattform.

How can you know that markets will resolve to the correct outcome?? (spoiler: you dont)
How can people ever trust it again?
Are prediction markets even a valid product?

For trust to ever return they would need to truly change the resolution process. No one should be able to pull levers. I hope they fix it someday
(Not saying that other PMs are better btw)

[Janis @janiscapital]

This example just shows that you should never and I mean NEVER put all of your money into one bet.

There are always risks under the surface which you have and can not possibly have any idea of.
This goes for everything in life, not just prediciton markets.

Does this mean I will not put 80% of my money into bitcoin in the next few months ? No
But I have to be prepeard to lose everything. Even if I have no clue how it might happen.
Nothing is 100% save. Everything is risky to some degree.

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
So asuming something is save while there is always a risk will get you cooked.

Apart from this I am really disapointed by @Polymarket
The people behind this should go to jail

[willo2 @willo2_Poly]

I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket.

I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st".

Here's what happened:

[Janis @janiscapital]

May has been my best month on @Polymarket so far for me

Started with 1k in december and managed to make about 600$ in half a year. Pretty solid if you ask me.
There certainly was some luck involved but its definitly possible to make money on prediction markets.

I will share some insights, tips and things i learnd in the future
Stay curious!

[Janis @janiscapital]

"future of finance"

[Janis @janiscapital]

It's always you vs yourself

[Janis @janiscapital]

@j0xnah @Polymarket The same thing happend to me recently, they really need to fix this
Especially for normies it is confusing

[Janis @janiscapital]

@FabianoSolana The website is pretty clean, thank you!
However the acuracy of information could be improved (fex. the OnRe USDC Vault on Loopscale has incentives, but it is not displayed correctly) and also filtering out high risk would be great.
Just some feedback, which might be helpful 🧡

[Janis @janiscapital]

It is likely imo that we see shallower bear markets and price making new ATHs sooner because its more stable. This makes ATH before halvings more likely.
But I dont see why the time intervals would change any time soon. They are the best way for me to predic the bottom anyways.

[Janis @janiscapital]

Some people are saying this cycle will be shorter and that ATH before the halving in 2024 already was a sign of that.
I think thats not the case. Because an ATH was possible in 2020 if it hadn't been for Covid and in 2024 we had ETFs etc.
And also just look at the chart:

[Janis @janiscapital]

Gona leave you guys with two charts.

I am just trying to stay on the left side of the curve. Already buying a little, but I think 40k is likely. This is were we bid bigtime

[Janis @janiscapital]

Gona leave you guys with two charts.

I am just trying to stay on the left side of the curve. Already buying a little, but I think 40k is likely. This is were we bid bigtime

[Janis @janiscapital]

@j0xnah @Polymarket I agree

[Janis @janiscapital]

When you actually earn more rewards than you lose to LPing on polymarket for the first time

[Janis @janiscapital]

@TheBTCTherapist ~80-90%

[Janis @janiscapital]

@BitcoinTeacher_ I feel 100% the same

(I also do not have that much money though)

[Janis @janiscapital]

Ignorance is weakness and it will f you up in many aspects of life.

Stay curious, think about stuff and buy some bitcoin.

The future will be bright for those who dare to imagine it 🧡

[Janis @janiscapital]

The number one reason why Bitcoin might fail imo is ignorance.
It feels like most people dont care/think about shit enough. They just dismiss btc as a ponzi without acctually trying to understand it/why it could be valueable.
This ignorance is also the reason why it is still

[Janis @janiscapital]

cheap today. Giving people who think about the monetary system and possible solutions a huge advantage.
Now you still have a choice between fiat and bitcoin. Someday the only option will be bitcoin and paper money will return to intrinsic value which is zero.

[Janis @janiscapital]

@BCalusinski So much wisdom in such a short tweet, thank you

[Janis @janiscapital]

@FurkanCCTV bin sehr gespannt, danke

[Janis @janiscapital]

@kian_sasan @elonmusk @premium @uvd99 Its probably because the most powerful people benefit massively from the US-Dollar and they don't want change.
They can inflate the supply (which may flow in parts to them idk) and thereby steal from the world and use the dollar as a weapon.