I disagree with the deterministic framing here. Markets adapt in more than one way and there are many variables involved. I’d welcome a public debate on this @mikemcglone11. Framing like this can materially influence decisions and put real capital at risk.
Collapsing Bitcoin/Cryptos May Guide the Next Recession -
"Healthy Correction" is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos. The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over, here's why:
- US stock market cap-to-GDP has reached the highest in about a century
- S&P 500 and NDX 180-day volatility is the lowest in roughly eight years
- The crypto bubble is imploding, Trump euphoria peaks gaining contagion
- Gold and silver grabbing alpha at a velocity last matched about half a century ago and spiking volatility set to trickle up to stocks
My graphic highlights Bitcoin (divided by 10) at about the same level as the S&P 500 on Feb. 13, with both hovering below $7,000. It seems unlikely that volatile and beta-dependent Bitcoin can stay above this threshold if beta doesn't. Initial normal reversion is toward 5,600 SPX ($56K Bitcoin), then what? Part of my base case for Bitcoin to revert toward $10,000 is a US stock market peak. 7,000 S&P 500, 50,000 Dow can't be tops -- or else.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/iSeuxnT6mx {BI COMD}
#bitcoin #stockmarket
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The real drivers behind Bitcoin’s next move 👀
@JasonDotX, Co-Founder of @AdLunamSocial & @AltcoinObserve, breaks down how liquidity, interest rates, and global risk are shaping $BTC in his interview on @reallive3tv 🌍
Full interview 👇
https://t.co/HMPTPnSrjh
#CryptoMarket
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@0xChiefy That would be in line the mid level of my prediction in @CoinDesk here (https://t.co/tCxrg6KpGz) assuming interest rates don't ease relatively quickky. The supreme court tarrif decision was encouraging...
@tesseract36@smtgpt@CoinDCX@CoinDCX_Cares I can answer this...you can transfer funds back and forth from a decentralized wallet to a centralized one and people routinely do it. People often store in a decentralized wallet and then transfer to CEX to liquidate
A senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence has softened his downside call on Bitcoin. @mikemcglone11 now sees #BTC potentially retracing to $28,000, instead of the previously stated $10,000, following backlash across social media.
➤ Earlier, McGlone had warned that Bitcoin could fall to $10K amid a US recession and equity market crash.
➤ @MatiGreenspan publicly dismissed the call, arguing that an asset with trillions in monthly trading volume would not collapse to a ~$200B market cap without a full-scale financial system breakdown.
➤ @JasonDotX added that in a reflexive market like crypto, aggressive bearish forecasts can themselves weigh on price.
Under mounting criticism, McGlone revised his target to $28K, citing historical support levels — though the adjustment did little to quiet detractors.
@mikemcglone11 Every cycle is framed as “this time is different” on the way down. The real question is whether the underlying network and liquidity infrastructure are stronger than last cycle. #BTCPrice
I disagree with the deterministic framing here. Markets adapt in more than one way and there are many variables involved. I’d welcome a public debate on this @mikemcglone11. Framing like this can materially influence decisions and put real capital at risk.
Collapsing Bitcoin/Cryptos May Guide the Next Recession -
"Healthy Correction" is what we should hear soon from stock market analysts (who risk unemployment if not onboard), following collapsing cryptos. The buy the dips mantra since 2008 may be over, here's why:
- US stock market cap-to-GDP has reached the highest in about a century
- S&P 500 and NDX 180-day volatility is the lowest in roughly eight years
- The crypto bubble is imploding, Trump euphoria peaks gaining contagion
- Gold and silver grabbing alpha at a velocity last matched about half a century ago and spiking volatility set to trickle up to stocks
My graphic highlights Bitcoin (divided by 10) at about the same level as the S&P 500 on Feb. 13, with both hovering below $7,000. It seems unlikely that volatile and beta-dependent Bitcoin can stay above this threshold if beta doesn't. Initial normal reversion is toward 5,600 SPX ($56K Bitcoin), then what? Part of my base case for Bitcoin to revert toward $10,000 is a US stock market peak. 7,000 S&P 500, 50,000 Dow can't be tops -- or else.
Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/iSeuxnT6mx {BI COMD}
#bitcoin #stockmarket
@mikemcglone11 It’s easy to model downside in isolation. It’s harder to model growing structural demand from ETFs, institutions, and sovereign-level adoption that didn’t exist in prior cycles.
@mikemcglone11 Large market moves aren’t driven by predictions — they’re driven by positioning, leverage, forced flows, and liquidity/rate conditions. Very different signals than macro headlines.
@mikemcglone11 Markets are reflexive. Widely repeated bearish narratives can become self-fulfilling in the short term, even when underlying conditions don’t justify extreme outcomes.