If the United States and Israel were to completely back down, from a strategic standpoint, the probability of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons would be extremely high, approaching 90% or even higher
Conclusion
•Nuclear weapons development does not depend on advanced equipment but on talent, scientific capability, and national mobilization.
•Iran has the potential to develop nuclear weapons and could use multiple strategies to conceal its true intentions.
Pakistan: From the 1970s to 1980s, Pakistan achieved nuclear capability through independent research and national mobilization, relying on teams of scientists and experimental verification rather than advanced equipment.
China: In 1964, China successfully built nuclear weapons with almost no advanced computers or imported equipment. China primarily followed the plutonium route, producing plutonium through nuclear reactors, with most calculations done manually or using early electronic computers