Software is eating the battlefield. But manufacturing will win the war.
America expended $18.5 billion of air defense munitions against Iranian drones and missiles that cost a fraction of that to build. The unit economics are broken.
For decades, the American way of war was built around precision: see first, decide first, strike first. Precision still matters, but it is no longer enough.
The future is precision plus autonomy plus scale, distributed across the battlefield.
That is autonomous, distributed mass. And building it requires a new arsenal of democracy.
As America marks its 250th anniversary, we're publishing the third essay in our Breaking Bread series on rebuilding the defense industrial base.
Full piece in comments.
@NomiCapital
Software is eating the battlefield. But manufacturing will win the war.
America expended $18.5 billion of air defense munitions against Iranian drones and missiles that cost a fraction of that to build. The unit economics are broken.
For decades, the American way of war was built around precision: see first, decide first, strike first. Precision still matters, but it is no longer enough.
The future is precision plus autonomy plus scale, distributed across the battlefield.
That is autonomous, distributed mass. And building it requires a new arsenal of democracy.
As America marks its 250th anniversary, we're publishing the third essay in our Breaking Bread series on rebuilding the defense industrial base.
Full piece in comments.
@NomiCapital
“If something is overvalued, that doesn’t mean it’s in a bubble.��
@Jason_Zins of @NomiCapital on the state of defense tech investing and why calling it a bubble isn't accurate.
NEW POD with Jason Zins, Founder and Managing Partner of Nomi Capital.
We cover:
• Why defense tech isn’t in a bubble
• How investors evaluate defense startups
• Manufacturing vs. software businesses
• Hypersonics, space infrastructure, and AI
• What makes a company investable
Also available on YT / Spotify / Apple Podcasts.
My new interview with @Jason_Zins who deployed $450M in private tech at SkyBridge and @bgerundo who came up through Army Special Operations and Goldman Sachs.
Together they raised a $50M defense tech fund called @NomiCapital
@Bkclaims How would you differentiate between beneficial owners of a Fund versus SPV? They are generally the same legal structure - Delaware LLC or LP.
Looks like no one’s found the shut-off valve on the defense tech funding tap just yet. In an exclusive release to Tectonic, @NomiCapital announced that it raised a $50M Fund I that it will deploy into later-stage defense tech startups this year.
https://t.co/Hoc0jYdcI2
@NomiCapital is proud to be doubling down on investing in the next generation of American defense and dual-use technology companies -- innovators rebuilding the arsenal of democracy for a new era.
Full post in comments.
@tanayj What do you think it should be worth?
6x run rate for an unprofitable, non-rule-of-40, payments business is not crazy. Chime and Klarna have not traded well either.
Maybe public markets are trying to tell private fintech something…
@rev_cap Outside of Obama, the US has never had a President born after 1946.
Boomer dominance continues until that changes (and perhaps more so in Congress)
Your argument implies that *new* GPUs are not the bottleneck, and that’s incorrect.
Even if every buyer could get their hands on the latest generation chip (and they clearly cannot), they would be too powerful/expensive for many use cases, including for inference.
The empirical evidence is that GPUs currently have useful life in the 4-5+ year range.
@ankurnagpal Paying above average deposit rates is effectively customer acquisition, but is not captured in margin.
And as rates come down, not only will their net interest margin compress, but assets will be less sticky.
This is not a software business model.
@brunoswerneck@thogge@jbahrdestefano Most likely it’s gross revenue, not processed volume and not net (real) revenue.
Essentially, it’s revenue from processed volume before processing fees.
Growing fast, but very high multiples on these businesses, will be interesting to see what public markets have to say.
@Melt_Dem Echoes of the GBTC NAV trade. Less leverage this time, though still feels unsustainable.
Don’t see this story ending well, but agree — the music continues for now.