Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator

Algo trader & custom indicator developer. I trade repeatable, rules-based setups. Daily charts, education, & market structure. TRT Admin. Not Financial Advice.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

Educational Video On Spreads

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@AmandaD2409 What you been up to Amanda, still trading?

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

$MU

My take on it, volume node determines which way to go for me.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@AmandaD2409 @ksat Hehe 🙃

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

Our tortoise Samantha made the news! Go Spurs go! #spurtle @ksat

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

$QQQ Bearish kicker on the day as well

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

$QQQ Evening Doji star forming on the 4h

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@mySA Thought it was little red barn for a sec

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@trade_venger I’ve been algo trading only, I don’t have an edge in this tape. I check in once a week to “probe” the market. That’s it.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@Mr_Derivatives Not a bear but when I started seeing macro structure not playing out over and over I said nahhhh I have no edge in this tape, and just pressed pause on it. My bots are still full on trading but that’s an entirely different strategy there. No manual trades for me lately.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@JohnLoc18 You gotta take a break sometimes, I am, not cause I lost anything big, this tape is weird, hard to find structure in it. So I just stay out. My bots still run but no manual trading for me.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

🚨 Hormuz Headline Just Hit — Here’s What Actually Matters Next

Everyone’s reacting… but few are watching the right things.

If this is real, it won’t be the headline that pays — it’ll be the follow-through.

Here’s what I’m watching:

1) Oil (THE signal)
If oil continues to push higher → supply shock is being priced in
If oil spikes and fades → market is calling bluff

2) Tanker / Insurance Activity
If shipping slows or insurers (like Lloyd’s) hesitate → this gets real fast
No disruption → headline risk only

3) Equities Reaction
Fast selloff = expected
What matters is what happens AFTER:
• Weak bounce = risk-off continuation
• Strong dip buying = market doesn’t believe it

4) Volatility (VIX)
Sustained elevation = regime shift
Quick crush = just another headline spike

---

Big picture:
A true blockade isn’t just words — it requires enforcement.

The market will figure out quickly:
👉 Is this policy… or posturing?

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Most will chase the first move.

I’m watching the second move — that’s where the edge is.

#Oil #Markets #Trading #Macro

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

Ceasefire headlines ≠ normal conditions.

800 ships are still sitting in/around the Strait of Hormuz (not all tankers, but a significant portion are carrying energy).

Flow hasn’t magically resumed — it’s a slow unwind.

Insurance isn’t “back to normal” either.
Coverage exists, but premiums are elevated and risk is still being priced in.

Supply chains don’t reset overnight.
Constraints don’t disappear because a headline prints.

If oil stays elevated after the relief rally, this becomes a bounce — not a regime change.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@dax_mccaskill @market_sleuth @TraderJonesy You def get hardcore criticism for anything but bullish talk right now. I lean very bearish still. And yeah agree with what you said too.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

@KobeissiLetter I thought the exact same, NEVER have I seen the market soon optimistic. Not saying it couldn’t happen but we want confirmation the other side is in agreement. Also He knows what he’s doing. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is just another fabrication. Hard to tell thru all this.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

$CL (Earrrrl)

Everyone thinks if the war ends today, we rally and that’s that.

I do think we get a relief rally — that part makes sense.

But the real signal isn’t the war… it’s oil.

Supply constraints don’t fix themselves overnight.

If oil stays elevated after that rally, it won’t matter that the war ended — that tells you the underlying pressure is still there.

At that point, the rally becomes a bounce… not a regime change.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

$NQ $QQQ $SPY $IWM

The market can only trade on hope for soo long, first wave down, wayyyyy more to come.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

🛢️ Oil = The Tell Right Now

Watching WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL) closely going into the week — this is where I think the real signal is coming from.

⸻

🟢 Bullish (Equities Risk-On Case)
•Oil rejects highs and rolls over
•Supply headlines ease pressure (production / geopolitics)
•Inflation expectations cool → gives the Fed breathing room
•Equities continue pricing optimism over risk

👉 Translation: market gets what it wants — relief

⸻

🔴 Bearish (Equities Risk-Off Case)
•Oil grinds higher, not spikes
•Higher prices get accepted, not rejected
•Supply tightness starts to show back up
•Inflation pressure stays sticky → Fed stays restrictive

👉 Translation: market starts repricing reality

⸻

🧠 What I’m Watching
•Acceptance vs rejection at current levels
•Slow grind vs sharp spike
•Reaction to any headlines (do they stick or fade?)

⸻

🎯 My Lean

Not predicting — just mapping scenarios.

But if oil continues a slow grind higher, that’s where things get uncomfortable for equities.

⸻

🧾 Closing Thought

I think a lot of the oil relief from strategic reserves has already been priced in over the last 4 weeks…

and that window is starting to close.

[Jason @TheRockTradingGroup - Moderator @Jason__XXC]

Hedge funds just flipped net long wheat for the first time in years.

Biggest positioning in 6+ years.

The market is locked in on energy… but it hasn’t fully priced what comes next.

Here’s the chain reaction I’m watching:

Oil ↑ → fertilizer ↑ → farmers spend more → grains (corn/wheat) move → food costs follow

By the time wheat is ripping, it’s already late.

The early tell?
Fertilizer names like CF, NTR, MOS.

If those start moving with oil, that’s not noise.

That’s the setup.