@anandchokshi19 Down ~19% YTD, but worth noting the NAV discount is ~22.60% vs ~30% historical avg. Not as cheap as it looks—market is actually assigning a higher relative value than usual.
The attacks on Europe I've seen here the last couple of days, including from people I've generally considered interesting and sophisticated, have been getting unhinged...
I get that EU has problems - GDPR clickthroughs are dumb, Chat Control is awful, they need to be less bureaucratic and supportive toward entrepreneurs, its kindness toward Ukraine often doesn't extend well to Gaza or Sudan or other places, people saying mean things about criminals getting longer sentences than the criminals is just crazy - but the apocalyptic attitude about the issues, evoking imagery of barbarians pillaging Rome etc, seems really over the top.
It feels more like a coordinated attempt to delegitimize than constructive criticism.
(I don't believe the line that "the target is not Europe, it's the EU": I've seen many instances of London specifically being targeted in the hate session, so no, much of it is an attack on Europe)
It just does not match my experience from spending an average of two months every year there for the last decade.
Our stock market is down. Bond yields are up and the dollar is declining. These are not the markers of successful policy.
I am receiving an increasing number of emails and texts from small business people I do business with or have invested in, expressing fear that they will not be able to pass on their increased costs to their customers and will suffer severely negative consequences.
For example, I am invested in a start up that makes cold brew coffee. Here is an excerpt of an email from the founder sent prior to China tariffs doubling:
“Despite our efforts to mitigate risk, the new tariffs have immediate and significant negative implications for our cost structure, and have the potential to compress our gross margin by 60%+.
Coffee and glass bottles are the largest % of COGs, and will be impacted by the following newly levied tariffs:
•50% increase in cost of glass bottles (sourced from China)
•26% increase in cost of chai (sourced from India)
•10% increase in cost of coffee (sourced from Ethiopia, Peru, and Canada)
These new coffee and glass bottle tariffs alone will add an estimated $1.53 of COGS/unit for our 32oz, reducing our gross profit by nearly 60% to a ~12% gross margin (from 30%). We are currently priced at the top of the range for our set and do not believe we have the ability to increase price to offset this impact in the near-term.
What is particularly concerning is the sudden and sweeping inclusion of coffee and tea in U.S. tariffs, reversing a long-standing precedent dating back to the McKinley Tariff of 1890, which removed duties on these essential commodities. The decision to apply a universal 10% tariff on all imports -- including those that have historically been exempt -- marks a dramatic shift in trade policy and presents an existential threat to Explorer Cold Brew and other specialty beverage producers. Unlike many industries, there is no 'reshoring' solution for coffee. The U.S. simply does not grow coffee at commercial scale, and domestic tea production is virtually nonexistent. There is no viable domestic alternative in the short or the long term. We remain steadfast in our commitment to navigating these challenges. We are actively evaluating all options -- supplier negotiations, cost engineering, strategic reformulations -- but the impact of this policy is real, material, and immediate. We will continue to keep you informed with full transparency as we assess and respond to these developments. Your support and partnership remain invaluable as we work to safeguard Explorer’s future and continue building a brand rooted in quality, transparency, and innovation. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions or thoughts.”
If you want to support Explorer Cold Brew, you can now find it at Whole Foods. A high quality cold brew available in varying degrees of caffeination for so long as it can survive.
And this one from a company that designs and installs home audio and video solutions:
“You wrote, “Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers,” and I fear this could be devastating enough to put me out of business.
Will my clients tolerate a near doubling of their contract costs overnight, or will they expect me to absorb the increases my vendors are already threatening?
If clients resist price hikes and my employees demand higher wages to offset their rising cost of living, we end up in a lose-lose scenario—no spending and no jobs.
While I understand you may not have time to respond, I hope that sharing the fears of a small business owner adds a tangible voice to the broader implications of your posts.”
If the president doesn���t pause the effect of the tariffs soon, many small businesses will go bankrupt.
Medium-sized businesses will be next.
A 90-day pause will enable @realDonaldTrump to accomplish his objectives without destroying small businesses in the short term.
May cooler heads prevail.
I first learned about Warren Buffett from a college classmate when I was 20 years old. Four years later, I read my first Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter and I was inspired to become an investor.
When I entered the investment business at 26 and started a small hedge fund with $3 million under management, I thought that perhaps some day I could build a diversified holding company like Berkshire with an extraordinary long-term record.
One of the most compelling parts of the Berkshire story is its modest beginnings. Berkshire was a dying textile company losing out to foreign competitors. The story of how Buffett bought control of the company, redirected cash from a dying business into an insurance company, a bank, manufacturing businesses, a railroad, a securities portfolio, and more, over time, is legendary.
A big part of the appeal of Berkshire is that anyone who could afford one share, about $20 back in the early 1960s, could participate in the compounding of that value over time.
At 4pm, we are going to announce a potential transaction which, if completed, will provide me and my firm with the opportunity to create our own, you might say, modern-day version of Berkshire. Fortunately, our starting base of assets won't be a dying textile company, but a very good business.
We will adopt similar, long-term, shareholder-oriented principles to Berkshire, and we intend to hold the stock forever.
If you find any of the above interesting, please read my 4pm post and join me and my team on our X presentation tomorrow at 9am. After the formal part of the presentation, we will launch an X Spaces where we will take questions from the participants in the order in which they are asked, until you have no further questions.
If you decide you like what we are doing, we welcome you to join us as a partner, and buy a share or two.
🚨 AI DID IN SECONDS WHAT NATURE NEEDED 500 MILLION YEARS FOR
Nature spent half a billion years crafting proteins—AI just did it in months. Meet ESM3, the super-powered AI that designs brand-new proteins from scratch, no evolution required.
This could change medicine, biotech, and maybe even life itself.
Trained on 2.78 billion proteins, ESM3 has 98 billion parameters, making it one of the most advanced AI models ever.
Instead of just remixing nature’s greatest hits, it creates entirely new proteins, like a biological DJ with infinite samples.
Its biggest flex?
esmGFP, a glowing protein 58% different from anything found in nature. Evolution would need millions of years to make this—ESM3 whipped it up in no time.
This isn’t just a cool science trick. It could revolutionize drug discovery, speed up new medicine development, and push biotech into sci-fi territory with stronger materials, cleaner energy, and futuristic food production.
It might even help us predict how life itself will evolve, which sounds like something we should keep an eye on.
AI-powered protein design isn’t just coming—it’s here. And it’s about to shake things up.
Source: bioRxiv