Javaheri

Tweets mostly on Politics & Political Theory

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

The Midterms May Signal the End of the War with Iran, Even if Another Round of Escalation Comes First

The midterm elections may ultimately be remembered as the turning point that brought the war with Iran to an end. That does not mean another round of escalation is off the table. Trump may still decide to launch a major strike to demonstrate strength, pressure Tehran into concessions, and claim victory before ending the campaign.

But the political reality in Washington has changed. The connection between the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising global oil prices, and higher gasoline prices for American consumers is difficult to ignore. What began as a military confrontation thousands of miles from American shores has become a domestic economic and political problem. Americans are paying more at the pump, and the administration is paying a political price.

This is precisely what Tehran hoped to achieve. By disrupting energy flows through Hormuz, Iran sought to demonstrate that Washington cannot wage war in the Persian Gulf without consequences for the American economy and, ultimately, the president's political standing. The midterm results suggest that this strategy has had an impact.

Trump now faces another problem. He certainly does not want to be remembered as the president whose war with Iran contributed to a major Republican electoral defeat. With Democrats gaining power in Congress and growing concerns within his own party, the political space for continuing an open-ended confrontation is narrowing. At some point, the cost of sustaining the conflict may become greater than the political benefits of continuing it.

Of course, this is Trump, and predicting his next move is never straightforward. He may respond to political pressure by escalating rather than compromising, particularly if he believes another powerful strike could allow him to declare victory on his own terms.

Nevertheless,it seems that the elections mark the beginning of the end of the current campaign against Iran, even if another military confrontation takes place before it concludes.

The longer-term implications may be even more significant. The war has exposed the vulnerability of American presidents to disruptions in Gulf energy supplies. Future administrations will have to consider how quickly a military confrontation in the Middle East can translate into higher gasoline prices, domestic political pressure, and electoral consequences.

This experience could fundamentally change Washington's calculations regarding military intervention in the region. And Tehran, having witnessed the political impact of its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, is unlikely to forget the lesson either.

#Iran
#iran

[Esmaeil Baqaei @IRIMFA_SPOX]

"Pride comes before a fall." Driven by greed & hubris, and acting in the service of a deceitful regime, you dragged your country into an unlawful and atrocious war against Iran. Your calculations failed, your assumptions collapsed, and your strategic misjudgments became painfully evident - all because you fundamentally misunderstood Iran and, more importantly, the resilience, determination, and national pride of the Iranian nation.

The American people have now sent you a clear message. Yet, if you continue to disregard reality, dismiss the lessons of history, and persist in this dangerous course, the consequences of this grave miscalculation will extend far beyond what you have already witnessed.

So repeat these words until their meaning becomes impossible to ignore. Hear them until you finally understand the reality behind them:

Attacking Iran does not bring victory. It only results in defeat. Iran is not a nation that can be understood through arrogance, intimidated through threats, or brought to its knees through aggression.

Today is 13th Aban...

[Peter Beinart @PeterBeinart]

Over the last two years, many of the most powerful people in America-tech oligarchs, college presidents, media tycoons, leaders of big law firms + basically the entire pro-Israel Jewish establishment-capitulated to Trump's authoritarianism. They abandoned American democracy in its moment of maximum peril. They should never be allowed to forget it. They should wear that shame for the rest of their lives.

[Pippa Norris @PippaN15]

Brazil. Serbia. Israel (perhaps). America. The self correcting resilience of democracy. It takes time, true. But testimony that ordinary voters defend democracy (no 2 issue in the US exit poll). And protected by the courts, elections matter. A reality check for authoritarian leaders.

[Ben Rhodes @brhodes]

Among other things, this is an absolute rebuke of the war in Iran. Democrats would be wise to heed that lesson and truly become the anti-war party.

[Foreign Policy @ForeignPolicy]

Kushner and Witkoff fail to recognize that the top priority for smart political leaders isn’t money or wealth—it’s national security. https://t.co/xHnZ4e5CW3

[Danny Postel @DannyPostel]

Michigan’s airwaves have been flooded with anti-Arab and Islamophobic attack ads targeting Abdul El-Sayed in the final stretch of the state’s high-stakes U.S. Senate race. @minnaharshad reports for @newlinesmag on how the messaging landed with voters.

https://t.co/EzoYCJuATs

[James Jackson @derJamesJackson]

Welt are linking the student protests with the HOUTHIS due to a One Piece flag

[Foreign Policy @ForeignPolicy]

The United States is now locked in exactly the kind of protracted war in which decisive victory is close to impossible, writes Marc Lynch. https://t.co/vX7SgSSVQk

[Alonso Gurmendi @Alonso_GD]

The way the West just went insane and blew up the post war institutions it itself created bc just a teensy bit of accountability came its way is something the racialised, otherised and orientalised peoples of the world will *NEVER* forget

[Matt Duss @mattduss]

“There’s no major legislative package in the works to signal that Democrats know Tehran is not the good guy.”

What a hilariously Blob-brained piece. It’s a good thing that Dems are more focused on opposing this stupid, unpopular war than on trying to look tough on Iran!

[Andrew Fogle @andfogle]

I know some of my excellent moots have other views but I think the perspective the Iranian leadership should take on the Trump admin is the maximally paranoid and pessimistic one and anything short of that is suicidal. Trump, hawks, and the Israel Lobby want to settle a generational grudge against the Islamic Republic and are utterly indifferent to public opinion, this is post-consent foreign policy and it's foolish to assume anything internal to US politics can stop it. Every olive branch is a trick, every overture is a lie, and at this point I even think some of the signals about depleted munitions and so on are part of the hybrid warfare. Iran should dig in for, minimally, two years of on and off war, anything else is geopolitical malpractice.

[Dr Andreas Krieg @andreas_krieg]

CENTCOM chief Cooper - an Iran hawk and Israel-aligned neo con - has emerged as one of the key king whisperers for Trump shaping the President’s perception of options, which objectively do not exist

Cooper is the actual Sec of War and the greatest challenge to the diplomatic process because he doesn’t want to own the defeat in this war
https://t.co/ocMYWzjooi

[Hossein Ghatib حسین قتیب @HosseinGhatib]

آیا ترامپ واقعاً دنبال «راه گریز» از جنگ است؟ این فرض که او فهمیده اشتباه کرده و فقط یک امتیاز نمادین برای عقب‌نشینی آبرومندانه می‌خواهد، بیشتر بازتاب آرزوی محافلی در تهران است تا شواهد. در روایت خودش، او نه گرفتار بن‌بست، بلکه مشغول تکمیل مأموریتی ناتمام است.👇

[Robert Talisse @RobertTalisse]

Can Democracy Be Fixed? A short new piece for the @apa_blog.

Maybe it's time to consider the grim possibility that it's too late.....
https://t.co/HB0MDwIFzu

[Ben Rhodes @brhodes]

For all the safety discourse, it is shocking how mainstream American discourse ignores how unsafe this racist garbage makes it for Muslim Americans.

[Sina Toossi @SinaToossi]

Trump is something else. He threatens to destroy Iranian civilization, bombs Iranian hospitals, bridges, and civilian infrastructure, and now comes & claims the letter he authorized Vance to send Tehran, seeking negotiations per @WSJ, was about sending medical supplies!

[Haytham Kaafarani @hayfarani]

Hi @RobertKennedyJr :
I am a Professor at Harvard & AUB, and an Arab surgeon-scientist. I produce science. Not enough for Nobel, but hey, I am trying. Coffee on me if you want to meet one day.
#ArabScientist

[Journal of Democracy @JoDemocracy]

Inequality fuels democratic decay almost everywhere, yet South Korea and Taiwan keep thriving. Their secret is the welfare state: Universal healthcare, pensions, and social protection have given citizens concrete reasons to trust democracy.

https://t.co/vo300pHFV4

[Matt Duss @mattduss]

This is obviously a bad faith question, Israel has been the singular obsession of Stephens’ charmed career as a conservative diversity hire, but if the interior minister of Japan regularly cranked out videos celebrating his own cruelty and racism I think we’d know their name.