Friendly Reminder:
If your income has not risen by at least 30% since Covid hit, you are now poorer.
And that is using the government’s own data.
The real number is likely 40% plus.
Markets move on 6 forces. Right now, here's what matters most:
Growth. Inflation. Monetary policy. Fiscal policy. Liquidity. Positioning.
We're heading into a jobless recovery—economy expands, hiring doesn't. AI is changing the game.
What would change my mind? Listen to Episode 18.
🎙️ Spotify: https://t.co/23IpLvHfBN
🎙️ Apple Podcasts: https://t.co/Ga0dQtnYl9
🎙️ YouTube: https://t.co/tlqrc5Er1H
Markets are always moving. The question is: are you ready for what's next?
Our Q2 2026 Forecast Report breaks down the six macro forces shaping markets right now—and reveals what we're positioning for over the next 12 months.
This isn't a prediction. It's a framework for thinking clearly when uncertainty is high.
Read the full report and see what we're watching most closely.
Click the link for access: https://t.co/etqvRTi3Od
The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event today, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously.
This looked weird to me, so I did some digging.
Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant pullbacks shortly after. The average three month drawdown following the signal is -9.51%, with the worst three month drawdown reaching -12.92% during 2018.
Historically this has always been an exhaustion gap rather than a sustainable rally.
Maybe this time is different.
There's a lot of confusion out there, including with Trump, that the US has lots of oil to sell to the world.
We do not. We're a net importer of crude (~+3 Mb/d). The EIA reports that fact in great detail every week.
The confusion stems from using the term "petroleum exports" which includes the bodacious amounts of natural gas liquids (NGL) that come from our wet gas plays. That stuff isn't "oil" and it is exported because it's wildly overproduced compared to our needs.
Yes, the US is a net exporter of "petroleum," but it's also a net IMPORTER of crude oil. In other words, the US has none to sell.
There's more complexity to why we export 3M b/d of crude (it's the wrong kind for our refineries) and also import 6.4 M b/d of crude (which is the right kind).
BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market.
In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold.
These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time.
The trader seemingly made huge gains.
Unusual.
Japanese actor Hiroyuki Sanada spoke about the contradictions of human nature:
“Some people dream of having a swimming pool at home, while those who have one hardly ever use it. Those who have lost a loved one feel a profound sense of loss, while others often complain about their living relatives. Those without a partner long for one, while those who have one often don't appreciate it. The hungry would give anything for a meal, while the satiated complain about the taste of their food. Those without a car dream of owning one, while those who have a car are always looking for a better one.”
The key to happiness is gratitude: truly seeing and appreciating what we already have, and understanding that somewhere, someone would give anything for what we take for granted.
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury projected to buy back $15 Billion of their own debt today, surpassing last week's $14.7 Billion purchase as the LARGEST Treasury buyback in history 🤯👀