Jay Medrow

FX & Macro Trader, Author and Private Investor

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Good news crushed AI stocks Friday. The punch came from the bond market — and almost nobody saw it.
3 charts tell you if it's the start of something bigger:
→ 2-year vs 10-year (the curve)
→ the VIX (fear)
→ the curve snapping back (the panic)
One light's already flickering.
I traded bonds 30 years. The crowd reads the headline. The operator reads the curve.

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

https://t.co/TNPe42cWpm

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Here's how you know this bull market will be dying — months before the crowd does.
Two chip companies just crossed a trillion dollars and Wall Street is celebrating. But a market dies in slow motion, in an exact order. Most people watch the scoreboard. Operators watch who's still on the field.

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

SpaceX bei $2 Trillion: Glaubensakt oder Sekte? | Smart Money Talks #5 https://t.co/LVG06oL8Qa via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

40 years, gold did the opposite of stocks. Built every 60/40 portfolio.

Since Sept 2024, that's broken. Correlation hit +0.945.

Gold won't hedge equities anymore. Neither will long bonds (bear steepener). Neither will long vol (compressed).

Long energy will.

#Macro #Gold

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Equities are lying to you.

S&P +8% YTD.
Oil +108%. Yields broke 4.5%. Japan 30Y above 4% first time. Curve steepened violently. Gold frozen.

Bonds, FX, commodities are repricing for stagflation.
The headline index is the only one pretending.

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Allzeithochs, Bond-Stress & China-Tech: Was der Markt gerade wirklich sagt https://t.co/hUaMkyhqze via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Bloomberg tested 8 AI trading bots with real money.
The portfolio lost a third of its capital.
A tweet. A drone. A central bank decision at midnight.
Pattern broken. Every time.
The algorithm sees the pattern.
The trader sees what breaks it.

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Energy +30%. Commodities +45%. Inflation expectations unchanged. Bear flattener in the curve.
I’ve seen this combination before.
In 2000. In 2007. In 2021.
The cycle always sends a message before the turn.
Here’s how to read it

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

The market hit an all-time high today.
Energy +26% YTD.
Commodities +38% YTD.
Oil back above $100.
Most portfolios were built for last year.
Here's your checklist. 4 signs your positioning is wrong for this economy.

#JayMedrow #MacroInvesting

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Ohne Helium keine KI – Warum der Krieg die Technologiewelt zerstört | He... https://t.co/53BzfsjPUI via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

https://t.co/gb9UXlJ8Vk
If the market gives you ~8% over time, a single stock down 8% against you deserves a decision.

Microsoft at the bottom of MAG7 in 2026 is not just a chart.
It is a message.

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

The Euro Is Rising for the Wrong Reasons | EUR Strong, DAX Weak, Europe ... https://t.co/rMYpihr538 via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Europe Is Getting Hit From All Sides — And The Euro Is Starting To Crack https://t.co/Oruhw7E9WA via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Der Hormus-Trade: Warum Dünger-Aktien jetzt spannend werden https://t.co/fHiyh2S9dY via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

The Strait of Hormuz Wasn’t Shut by Missiles. It Was Shut by Insurance. https://t.co/AN8s3ctwrw via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Something Is Breaking in the $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market https://t.co/tQbOih39T1 via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Wenn Hormuz dicht bleibt, wird’s teuer: Öl über $80, Inflation, Zentralb... https://t.co/6puyhOmpAg via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

ROBOTICS: Das nächste strategische Tech-Thema (US-Policy + Gewinner-Basket) https://t.co/Xt91U6HIWW via @YouTube

[Jay Medrow @Jay_Medrow]

Der Index lügt: Dispersion 98. Perzentil (Nomura) | Negative Gamma, VIX/... https://t.co/ASdxhnxGM1 via @YouTube