Jean

[Nic @nicrypto]

The most important part of the Iran deal isn't the $300bn fund or the frozen assets.

It's the oil waiver - and ships are already moving.

Iran can sell crude again.

It can access more buyers.

It can reduce the huge discount it was forced to offer China.

It can repatriate the cash through banking channels.

It can invest back into production.

Prewar production was around 3.5m bpd and if that capacity comes back, some estimates put revenue at $60bn+ per year.

That is the real prize.

[Rafaela Vitoria @rvitoria]

O juro real está próximo de 10%, ex-ante ou ex-post, pode escolher. No longo prazo está 8%. No horizonte da política monetária a inflação está em torno de 4%.
O Copom cortou 25 bps. Nada de mais, pode continuar cortando. Se existe um erro, é porque poderia ter iniciado os cortes em dezembro do ano passado, aí sim faria sentido uma pausa agora com a Selic em 12-13%. No atual patamar, tem muita restrição monetária ainda. A inflação alta desse ano já foi. A atividade vai desacelerar. O fiscal é um problema sim, mas temos juros à altura já. Precisamos de uma correção do rumo fiscal com urgência, Selic a 15% não resolve esse problema.

[Nic @nicrypto]

Yesterday's Fed meeting was the most unusual in years.

Here's why it matters.

Warsh held rates, stripped forward guidance, skipped his own dot plot projection, & launched task forces to review everything.

His answer to every policy question: "We have a task force for that."

The committee showed half projecting a hike, half a hold. Median dot: 3.8% by year-end (one 25bp hike).

September hike odds are at 50%+ from 30%.

But is Warsh himself a hawk or dove?

Nobody knows - he deliberately didn't say.

For decades, the Fed told markets what to expect and Warsh has changed that.

Whether that's bold reform or reckless opacity depends on what inflation does next.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

US President Trump on the Iranian funds:

"... We have their money. It's not our money, it's their money. And we froze it. And at a certain point in time, I guess we are going to have to give it back. If we didn't give it back, nobody would ever invest in the dollar again..."

[CryptoGoos @cryptogoos]

THE YEN IS FLASHING A WARNING FOR MARKETS

🇯🇵🇺🇸 The Japanese yen just hit its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since July 2024, raising the risk of further government intervention.

This is BAD for markets.

[Fiat Archive @fiatarchive]

ELON MUSK: Bitcoin is "based on energy."

Governments can print fake money, but "impossible to fake energy."

[Minha Inflação @minhainflacao]

Feijão Preto Camil com queda de 11,4%

média de 8,83% de queda no preço.

Enquanto isso o Feijão carioca teve aumento de 67% pra "equilibrar".

📍Carrefour Aricanduva

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

MICHAEL SAYLOR: "THERE'S GONNA BE AN EXPLOSION IN PROSPERITY BECAUSE A BILLION ROBOTS WILL DO ALL THE WORK AND A BILLION CARS WILL DRIVE THEMSELF. THEN I THINK YOU'LL SEE A SOCIALIST WAVE OF ENTITLEMENTS. UNIVERSAL HEALTHCARE, UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME, UNIVERSAL HOUSING, UNIVERSAL ENTITLEMENTS."

"PEOPLE WORRY THAT THERE WON'T BE ENOUGH. THAT'S NOT THE PROBLEM. THERE'LL BE TOO MUCH. TOO MUCH MUSIC, TOO MUCH ENTERTAINMENT, TOO MUCH FOOD, TOO MUCH ALCOHOL, TOO MUCH SUGAR, TOO MUCH STIMULATION. DIFFERENT CIVILIZATIONS WILL BE DISTINGUISHED BY HOW THEY REACT TO IT."

[Libertario 🟨⬛ @QuotesforGoal]

"Venezuela no es lo que pasa cuando el socialismo fracasa, es lo que pasa cuando el socialismo triunfa"

Garry Kasparov

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨The UAE quit OPEC and is now targeting 5.2 million bpd by 2027 up 730,000 bpd in a single year.

Behind it $150 billion in ADNOC Group capex and a new pipeline that routes all UAE crude around Hormuz.

The biggest structural shift in oil supply since US shale is happening right now. 🇦🇪🛢️⚡

The IEA now treats the UAE as a non OPEC+ producer same category as US shale, Brazil, Guyana.

The reason Abu Dhabi spent years constrained by OPEC quotas that capped how much of its expanded capacity it could actually use.

The exit removes that cap permanently 📋

The capacity build is already done:

UAE crude capacity 3.1 mb/d in 2016 → 4.4 mb/d in 2026.

Add 1.1 mb/d of condensate and NGLs. You're already at 5+ mb/d of technical capacity.

ADNOC is now spending $55 billion in 2026–2028 alone, $150 billion through 2030, to push that further.

Energy Minister al-Mazrouei's ceiling, if markets demand it: 6 mb/d

The Hormuz piece nobody is connecting:

Even during the Iran war, with Hormuz effectively closed, UAE exports rose in May: up 260,000 bpd to 3.1 mb/d.

How? The existing Habshan Fujairah pipeline (1.8 mb/d) already bypasses the Strait.

Fujairah has 42 million barrels of storage.

Tankers were even running dark along the Omani coastline with AIS off documented by the IEA.

The new pipeline changes everything:

ADNOC is fast-tracking a West-East pipeline that doubles Fujairah's crude export capacity completely bypassing Hormuz.

50% complete.
Start-up: 2027.

By the time UAE hits 5.2 mb/d, it will be able to export most of it without touching the Strait of Hormuz at all. 🌍

What this means for the oil market

The UAE is now a volume-maximising producer aligned with market share, not OPEC price management.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq still run through Hormuz.

The UAE increasingly won't.

And if 5+ mb/d at Fujairah works, every other quota constrained producer with spare capacity starts asking whether OPEC membership is still worth it.

The Iran war revealed the chokepoint.

The UAE is building its way around it.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Apple to hike iPhone prices ~20% to offset soaring memory and storage costs and keep margins constant.

[theendeavorpath @theendeavorpath]

“You cannot push anyone up a ladder unless he is willing to climb.”

— Andrew Carnegie

[Kevin Van Trump @KevinVanTrump]

Brazil’s farm problem may not be acres.

It may be credit.

Distressed rural credit has grown to nearly 1/5 of outstanding farm loans. Problem debts have more than quadrupled in two years. Rural property auctions jumped to 14,219 in 2025.

Everyone watches the Brazilian weather.

The bigger structural question might be whether banks keep funding expansion.

>>> Brazil Ag Credit

[Deep Psychology @DeepPsycho_HQ]

“The ultimate cost of refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors.”

- Plato

[Words of Wise | Mindset Coach @Wordofwise_]

“For the great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities.”

— Niccolò Machiavelli

[successmovers @successmoverss]

“A goal is not always meant to be reached; it often serves simply as something to aim at.”

— Bruce Lee

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

Everyone should consider converting their home equity to Bitcoin, 'I convinced my wife to mortgage her house and take a loan to buy Bitcoin.' — Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Plieg

[Henrique Esteter @Economesteter]

🚨 Segundo Jason Miller, ex-assessor de Trump, Lula tentou fazer um discurso longo e confuso no fórum de inteligência artificial do G7.

A fala teria sido tão ruim, e Lula tão incoerente, que Emmanuel Macron precisou intervir e interrompê-lo porque ele não parava de falar.

Miller ainda afirmou que Lula ficou irritado, teve um “chilique como um bebê”, levantou e deixou o local.

[Papo Econômico @opapoeconomico]

Pagamento de dividendos caiu 27% depois que a tributação começou a valer

O que aconteceu? Empresas anteciparam tudo em 2025 e migraram pra JCP

Arrecadação que o governo projetou? Não veio

Mercado se adapta mais rápido que regulador. Sempre foi assim

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

🔥Global fund managers believe gold is fairly valued:

The net percentage of fund managers calling gold overvalued has fallen in June to the lowest reading since February 2024, according to BofA's Global Fund Manager Survey.

This marks a dramatic reversal from early 2026, when as many as ~45% of respondents considered gold overvalued, the highest reading since 2012.

The survey, conducted between June 5 and June 11 among 198 fund managers overseeing a combined $540 billion.

This comes as gold has pulled back significantly from its 2026 highs, bringing valuations back in line with long-term norms in the eyes of institutional investors.

Is gold undervalued?