Major ABC in Bitcoin.
Only a Bounce awaits. Strong!
The Bear Market has begun.
BUT... it is when BTC only bounces... that ETH and ALTS move the farthest.
Now we must get peak fear - before the reversal - and massive rally - while sentiments build into Euphoria
Suggest reading this, and I myself will be farming the airdrop
This isn't a competitor to HL either, in many cases liq will even be sourced there so it can actually complement it. It's a completely different model that sources liq from cex's dex's and tradfi.
I have no affiliation with them or anything, but saw the recent funding round, did some research, and believe the airdrop will be pretty decent. It is invite only. You get paid to try things.
https://t.co/QwOPUclIFW
i've tried lots of ways to trade crypto.
scalping. leverage. day trading. swing trading. spot.
most of it was early in my career (2017 - 2020) when i had a day job and the only goal was make money as fast as possible.
i didn't hate scalping. i wanted to be good at it. i wanted to be good at leverage. i tried a bunch of indicators, a bunch of setups, a bunch of styles. none of it truly clicked.
part of the problem was structural. with a day job i could only sit down for an hour or two at a time, which meant i was forcing trades on my schedule instead of taking the ones the market actually offered.
but the bigger problem was me. i'm lazy by default. i'll put in max effort on something i think will pay off big, and basically low effort on anything else.
what actually fit: finding a narrative before it was saturated, doing the research, waiting for the right entry, and then sitting in spot while the market caught up.
once i'm in a position, i can mentally check in and check out. shitpost. monitor sentiment. let the thesis play out. that's the version of this game that fits my brain.
the lesson i'd offer anyone still figuring it out: the trading style matters less than whether it actually fits you. there are profitable scalpers and profitable swing traders and profitable degens. they're all running different playbooks. they just stopped fighting their own wiring and found the one that fit them.
$UUUU
The future, is nuclear just hopefully not in the war sense
US based critical minerals company with strong macro tailwinds. Especially with AI data center buildouts and diversifying into rare earths and a strong balance sheet.
I view this one as a longer term play, not one that is going to provide multiples like we are seeing in many of the AI sectors fwiw.
We will get some more guidance on this shortly. and hopefully some more government support for domestic supply chains
Alex Hormozi says the rule of 100 can turn 1 sale a week into 1 sale a day
"The rule of 100 is you do 100 per day... 100 minutes posting content, $100 a day on ads, or 100 reach outs, if you want to be crazy do all three"
“If it takes 700 efforts to get one sale, and you’re only doing 100 a day, you get one sale a week. Do 700 a day and all of a sudden, you’re making one sale a day”
Stanley Druckenmiller: “I like putting all my eggs in one basket.”
Concentration is the most underrated investment advice.
My portfolio had a great month because I was heavily concentrated on $NBIS, $AMD and $AMZN.
When you concentrate on exceptional companies bought at discount, you see the downside as just volatility, and upside as inevitable.
Don’t be afraid of concentrating on your best ideas.
As Buffett once said, “nobody gets rich on their 20th best idea.”
Cobie explains how the Crypto airdrop could solve one of AI’s biggest problem
“You’re providing a lot of value, like early users on Facebook, bootstrapping the product, giving product thoughts, driving growth through your network, being highly valuable, but you got nothing for doing that apart from using Facebook”
“I can imagine a world that looks more like how crypto airdrops happen today, but applied to companies, consumer businesses, etc., where the value created by the user is rewarded back to the user when the company goes public”
The k-shaped crypto recovery thesis articulated by @cobie
"You have to detach that memecoins aren't going up or governance tokens aren't going up. It feels depressing because you can't get exposure to things that are good. Even I can't get exposure to the things that are good.
But there's a societal bull case for crypto enabling alot of stuff. And if crypto does enable alot of this stuff as more & more capital comes on chain. It's inevitable that we have another season of euphoria and fun...
The more capital that comes onchain, the more & more inevitable that appears to be."
I don't post much here but I spent years keeping a trading journal, not the kind with entry prices and stop losses, but the kind where you write things down at 2am after a bad week. Now I put it together for boom and bust traders.
Maybe it helps someone.
https://t.co/KVHRFY8j6o
let me break down for you exactly how to become a millionaire. slowly. simply by being extremely frugal for 3 years.
based on averages, not applicable to everyone. solely as a hypothetical thought exercise to encourage financially responsible habits
1. live like a monk for 3 years
3. shove all saved £ into the Nasdaq
4. 30 years later: millionaire
let’s say after 3 years you don’t want to live like a monk anymore and want to spend more. so you invest £4k into the nasdaq pa instead of £8k
—> £1.7m
all tax free within a stocks and shares ISA. if you start doing this at 20, and see it through, by 50 you will be retired and can buy dividend stocks or invest in bonds —> live off the yield forever
this isn’t including getting a better job, pay rises/promotions etc, or workplace pension, just from cutting out unnecessary spending
to emphasise what I said below, it’s shit that we have to do this, boomers could buy a home / support their family of 8 for thruppence and a bag of tomatoes… this is just a a very basic example of how you CAN build wealth if you are serious about it and build financially responsible habits
investing £100, £50, £20 here and there may seem like nothing, but it builds up quick and compound interest takes care of the rest
Knee Osteoarthritis Thread 4: Metabolic Health and the Knee.
Your metabolic health will directly impact how your knee feels more than you can imagine. Your metabolic health directly influences how quickly your arthritis progresses and how your cartilage responds to the stress it's under.
This is the part of the knee OA conversation that most patients never hear.
With 43.8M Pumpcade tokens contributed to the ACE round so far, those tokens are now in our hands and locked for a year, reducing the total circulating supply of Pumpcade by 4.38%
Everyone’s obsessed with entries.
Entry this. Entry that. Perfect setup. Perfect timing.
But the longer you trade, the more you realize:
Entries barely matter.
You can take a mediocre entry and make money
You can take a "perfect" entry and still lose
What actually moves your PnL:
- How big you size when you’re right
- How fast you cut when you’re wrong
Whether you press when conditions are good… and chill when they’re not
Most people do the opposite:
- They go small when they’re right
- Big when they’re wrong
It’s not about being right more often
It’s about making more when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong
Sounds simple enough but execution is often hindered by emotions.
things i’d do differently if i started over (part 4 of 4)
one of the hardest thing i’ve had to learn in investing is selling losers.
my brain does this thing where it refuses to lock in a loss. i hold a position down 25% because selling makes it “real.” meanwhile there’s something else i have more conviction in but i won’t rotate because that means admitting i was wrong.
i did this for years. sat in coins i was lukewarm on watching better opportunities pass by because i couldn’t stomach seeing red in my trade history. what if I was selling the bottom and buying post pump on another coin?
but selling at a loss isn’t failing. it’s reallocating. the sooner you learn that, the sooner your portfolio starts reflecting your actual conviction instead of your past mistakes.
part 1: https://t.co/6ZIO0laNj8
part 2: https://t.co/gnzFctNW2b
part 3: https://t.co/oCH9SWqEnb
Stuff I wish I knew when I was younger:
1. Doing something poorly and consistently is better than doing it in a world class manner occasionally
2. Other people tell you to take risks bc they want to see what happens or have a free option if you win not bc they think it’s a good idea
3. Most people don’t think about you at all. But some people think about you a lot. If someone who is a baller takes an interest in you for no particular reason just run with it. One trick to vastly improve your relationship outcomes is spend time w people who like you (not ppl who ignore you or treat you poorly).
4. Everything in your life you can categorize as 1) addictive 2) enjoyable. And if you do a bunch of non addictive enjoyable things it’s quite likely you’ll be happier. If you stop doing that basket you’ll burn out, predictably
5. It’s a lot easier to deal directly with negative thoughts than it is to deal with the life circumstances generating them and most of the time you can actually deal w the circumstances more effectively if you’re not tilted
6. Most of the economy is a cartel defined by proximity to central banks, the government, and a small elite. The reason “contrarian” ideas work isn’t because they’re good. It’s bc they’re “king made”. It’s decided in advance who is going to win. You need to decide if you’re going to play or not. There is no halfway
7. Being mad about the system being rigged is a waste of time it’s a lot better to just bet on it, or invest with that as an edge bc most people aren’t blackpilled enough.
8. Most studies - especially social science studies have criminally low r sq or poor methodology. Such that most things you read online don’t actually work. At the same time - your own response to things is fairly predictable. So if you find something that works - you can just go back to that - a lot more easily than optimizing something new
9. Life getting worse after 30 is a scam. Actually - it might genuinely get worse for most people. But it doesn’t have to. The people who most loudly tell you what you need to be happy are the least happy people
10. Over time your outcomes are mostly determined by the quality of your network, your investment rate of return and your tax rate. But every once in a while you can do something non linear that can be a home run. It’s best to do non linear things during asset bubbles or when you have a hot hand. It’s not a good idea to do non linear things when there isn’t strong investor appetite for risk taking
11. Your behaviors will tell you stuff you’re not dealing with. If you’re overeating or sleeping poorly it’s probably bc there’s something you haven’t acknowledged or faced or are putting off
12. As you move towards a singularity , accelerating progress or a purported societal shift the predictability decreases - rather than increasing. People are the most certain at maximum acceleration when the very nature of acceleration or complexity suggests they should do the opposite. If AGI is coming start thinking 1 week out not 3 years out
A lot of ppl have been asking my thoughts on Pumpcade…
Have a lot of thoughts, but the high level is this:
- ACE is a novel token <> equity union device we haven’t seen in crypto before (largely reg reasons).
- I like seeing innovation that brings token holders into better alignment with equity holders (since previously in just about every instance the token is completely divorced from project success)
- i have no idea how to appropriately value either the token or the equity side.
- nobody on CT has any idea how to appropriately value the token or equity side.
- predictions, perps, and stablecoins remain the only investable asset/token types in crypto right now (only crypto/crypto-adjacent things with PMF)