WARREN BUFFETT ON WHY INTEREST RATES ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN INVESTING
The 10-year Treasury hit 5% today for only the second time since 2007. When Buffett said this in 2017, it was at 2.15%, and he explained why that made stocks look cheap.
"If you look at the 10-year government at 2.15, that means you're paying 45 times earnings when you buy that bond. And the earnings aren't going to go up."
"Interest rates are to stock prices what gravity is to matter. If interest rates were nothing and they're going to be nothing forever, you'd be buying stuff that would yield you one percent or two percent."
"If interest rates on the short rate are 21%, like they were in 1982 under Volcker, you can look at a stock at six times earnings and say, well, that really isn't that attractive. That's what drives valuations."
At 5%, the 10-year is 20 times earnings. The gravity just got a lot stronger.
A billionaire sat in a room for 42 minutes and listed every psychological trick that makes people lose money. for free. the finance industry has spent thirty years pretending this recording does not exist.
he didn't sell a course. he didn't write a newsletter. he sat in a chair at 96 years old and explained why brilliant people do the dumbest things with their money. then he explained why they will keep doing it.
MBA programs charge $200,000 to teach behavioral finance. he covered 25 biases in one sitting. some of them are still not in any curriculum. he gave the entire framework away on camera.
the part nobody talks about: he called crypto antisocial. he said index funds will crush most managers. he said private equity is full of wretched excess. he said all of this in a room full of people who manage money for a living. nobody argued.
a hedge fund analyst at a top firm told me this is the first thing they send to anyone who joins the desk. not a book. not a model. a 42-minute video of a 96-year-old man explaining why you will be wrong and how to recognize it before it costs you everything.
40 million people have heard his name. almost none of them have watched him explain the 25 ways their own brain is working against them.
the lecture is free. he died the following year. it is in the video.
Madhu Kela's five biggest bets weren't businesses you'd ever want to marry.
- Jindal Steel, 2003: an unloved cyclical. Market cap ran ~40x in six years.
- Adani Enterprises, 2006: a trading firm, long before the conglomerate.
- SpiceJet: an airline, in a sector that burns cash.
- Radico Khaitan: a debt-laden distiller the market ignored. 15x on the money.
- Pantaloon: over-leveraged retail. 5x, then Kishore Biyani's Future Group went to insolvency.
One of the five later went bankrupt, another nearly did. The returns came from buying when the business was cheap and unloved and exiting before fundamentals turned, not from holding to ₹10,000.
So marry the business if you must, but know your grounds for divorce: when the re-rating is done, and the price already carries your thesis, or when the reason you bought no longer holds.
Retail gets both wrong. It clings to losers and sells winners at ₹20.
Madhu Kela on his investment in Waaree:
“I attended a conference in Surat where Jayant Sinha said that if we don’t make meaningful progress on climate change, at least 25 cities around the world could see temperatures exceeding 60°C.”
“That made me realize carbon neutrality is a massive long-term theme.”
“Waaree had already been in business for 20 years, and when we met the promoter, the company was available at a valuation of around INR 4,500 crore.”
Discl: Stocks discussed are not a recommendation. Please consult a SEBI/SEC regd. advisor.
“1st thing I look at is the opportunity size, 2nd is the corporate governance, 3rd is use of technology and ability to change.”
“4th is frugality which companies like Indigo and D-Mart use. 6th is patience and at the end it’s the ability to delegate the power.”
- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
“I come from a Agarwal Marwadi family, and we are used to say vyaj (interest rate) 16%, 17%. It’s my heritage.”
“Warren Buffett’s compounding and Marwadi ka compounding is the same. Increase your principal amount every year, try not to lose principal and even if you make small returns, it is fine.”
- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. 2009
“After 2008 crash, I advised my young son and everyone to always have 10% cash in portfolio.”
“As Buffett said, markets can remain irrational more longer than you can remain solvent. Discipline to hold cash and patience is most important.”
- Govind Parikh. 2015. CNBC
Cc- @CAronitpereira
“I invested in Titan thinking if example, jewellery market in India explodes from 5% branded to 20% branded. It will go from 5,000 crore to 20,000 crore market.”
“So in Investing, first look at opportunity size.”
- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala. 2009
Warren Buffett: “If you invest in a stock, you must be mentally ready to watch it drop 50% or even more.”
Buffett saw his $AXP drop by 83% from its highs during the 2008 crisis. He didn’t sell a single share.
It’s now a 44x position for him.
Staying dead calm is what it takes.
"Your Demat statement belongs to the market.
Your bank statement belongs to you."
The rise you saw was a paper profit.
The fall you see today is a paper loss.
Nothing is real… until you sell.
Yes, my portfolio is down too. And worrying won’t raise prices. It will only disturb your peace, your mood, and even your family life.
Yes, this is a crisis. But it is also training.
Markets don’t build wealth without first building your temperament.
In my investing journey, I have seen many such phases. I was worried then too...I am human. But I learned to live with these moments instead of reacting to them.
And every time the cycle turned, every new bull phase took my portfolio to new highs.
These situations are not here to break you… they are here to build you.
They are what make you a seasoned long-term investor forever.
You have to win over your mind.
Events create uncertainty… but fear is shaped within.
Learn to observe it, understand it, and guide it, because you are not your mind.
Stay patient. Stay aware. Stay grounded.
Because in the end, it’s not the market… it’s your temperament that creates wealth. ✌️
#ThisTooShallPass #RaatKeBaadPrabhatHai