Jeffrey Liu

🇩🇪CDU supporter

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@ShanghaoJin @CuiMao 梁叔叔偷偷运nv卡回来，法律上来说，就是走私。皇上想用他，就利用他做AI，那天烦了，把柄一堆，至少走私就是违法，光明正大的抓起来。

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@xzzzjpl 最出名的应该是习下李上，信这个的这辈子是有了

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@shawnyinmr 我7月爆亏22% 今天一看原来幻方很多基金也亏了20%以上，瞬间平衡了😂

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@xzzzjpl 社长什么时候能谈谈神秘的华为🥺

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@ShanghaoJin is the same reason you post this in english but not chinese🤣

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@shawnyinmr 感觉昨天算是一个小突破了 今天最好是能震荡一下 明天nfp给大家震惊一下 再拉上200dema 那样感觉短期就彻底成功了

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@wangwatchworld B站有很多 比如说 老番茄

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@SPCXOK 买完车第二天，公司法人变他。第三天公司借了1个亿，第四天打给关联项目方套现走人，第五天公司破产找他做背债人

[vonju @VonJu0]

今天看到最神的

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@ShanghaoJin 利奥波德就此消失在追保通知的尘埃里，还是攒钱攒人杀回来？请看第二集“杠杆已清，怒火未清”
这个咽不下这口气的德国人，究竟会成为逆风翻盘的爱德华四世，还是成为一路 all in成为养料的大胆查理？敬请期待第三集 "Nancy or Hastings?"

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@ShanghaoJin 金老师也在玩ck3 eu5 vic3 hoi4吗

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@maitian99 6月5日开始的ai硬件震荡下行，而amd在此次回调中并没有回调很大的幅度（对比sndk回调60%），您知道这是为什么吗

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@maitian99 原来如此 感谢您的回复

[bubble boi @bubbleboi]

This has been an absolutely brutal month for the Kospi. Here’s how I read it as an engineer/speculator:

SK’s earnings aren’t noise they’re a preview of the whole sector and what’s coming for other companies earnings. It’s clear that the revenue miss is due to the memory mix shifting from DRAM to HBM, and that’s dragging blended ASP growth down. Counterintuitively, HBM pricing has been roughly flat while DRAM has gone vertical. This means every bit share HBM takes is a bit share that isn’t compounding. This is why I’ve said time and again that most of the memory makers’ earnings growth has come from DRAM, not HBM.

Why is this?

Well It takes ~3 DRAM wafers to make one equivalent HBM wafer, kinda like how in Minecraft you need three bushels of wheat to make one loaf of bread 🥖. The HBM demand thus eats commodity DRAM supply and drives that price up. That’s why SK was comfortable adding DRAM capacity because worst case, they convert it to HBM and everybody wants that shit.

This dynamic has been well known for a while and has been why for the longest time people have been memory and chill maxxers the math just worked out beautifully. But what I missed and I think many others did is that there is one flaw here. Because all else being equal, more HBM PER ACCELERATOR actually means less DRAM demand despite the cannibalization dynamics to make HBM. Everyone would prefer more HBM on each chip if they could and all the roadmaps point to that.

H100s shipped with 80 GB of HBM, b200 with 148GB, and Rubin is ramping with 288 GB as standard or 1.5x the HBM of Blackwell. Those extra HBM bits come out of DRAM’s share of bits. The reason is pretty simple, we aren’t using DDR because we want to it’s cause we have to. Ask any engineer if they could put 1TB of HBM on every accelerator, they would do that rather than spec more server DDR. Every roadmap points to more HBM per accelerator and thus more bits migrating to that tier. Whether we can package it is the open question because past 8-high stacks it’s gets hard.

So in summary, rational actors are moving bits off extortionately priced DRAM, up to HBM and down to flash. Although flash offload is still mainly a Chinese lab thing, i just mention it to point out that it’s coming and is going to squeeze DRAM from both sides.

SK’s LTAs & were timed perfectly and should mask falling spot prices for the near term. Longer term, every new generation of accelerator should shift more bits onto HBM and that’s going to hurt the commodity DRAM players who can’t make good quality HBM like Micron. Looks like SK knew what they were doing the whole time and it looks like they timed the top perfectly with their ADR issuance.

Let me know what you think of this bubblicious model by commenting below ! 👇

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@MrMicopedia 太神了 本来我都fomo了, 看了你的想法没有fomo进去, 当然warsh这么鸽我也没敢做空.

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@MrMicopedia 哎呀 狠狠的反弹了 感叹卖飞的一天 warsh这次一点也不hawkish

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@Liyujinshu 是的😂 市场对加息过度定价主要是因为市场已经适应fed put了，warsh这小子嘴很严，啥也不说，大家就很恐慌。某种意义上来说，他通过不加息达到了让大家以为要加息因此市场去杠杆良好运行的效果

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

不支持加息的理由
1.不符合贝森特想要大通胀以软性赖账国债的意愿
2.不符合川普的意愿
3.利率不是warsh现阶段的主要任务, 他的主要任务是, 清洗fed中对自己不忠诚的势力, 比如powell, 尤其是cook
4.不符合他自己的理念
5.加息周期万一资金不到位导致美国在科技竞赛中落后于中国他就是历史的罪人

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@lao36325 @MrMicopedia 对的 0dte期权

[Jeffrey Liu @JeffreyL1999]

@MrMicopedia 是的😂 留到现在已经要亏了 这种0dte期权感觉就是吃那一分钟的波动 吃完了就润了，下次这种局我要吸取经验，第一分钟走一半，第二分钟再走剩下一半