Jennifer🔅

You have to believe in yourself . That's the secret of success.💎

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

Good night, let the tiring day drift away with the wind, and keep working hard tomorrow.

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

It is important to self-regulate our emotions when interacting with others and to avoid affecting them with negative emotions. It is only when we learn to deal with our own pain and ensure that we do not spread it to others that we can build healthy, positive relationships

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

Slowly understand the world and slowly update yourself.

[The ₿itcoin Therapist @TheBTCTherapist]

The 10th richest man in the world just reposted this comment by Michael Saylor. 🤯

Michael Dell is worth a whopping $120 billion.

The billionaires are coming. #Bitcoin

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

Buy when there is fear, especially on the verge of a bull market

#Bitcoin $BTC

[破音poyin.com @poyincom]

《赛道级别的机会要来了，大的也要来了》

币圈就是一个不断掀桌子的游戏，而目前的市场是：低波动率+长时间震荡+极致低情绪
掀桌子的赛道级别机会，已经开始酝酿

比特币波动率与市场趋势分析

近期，比特币的价格一直在下跌，但其波动率却已经来到了一个临界点
当前的波动率为1.25%
这是一个什么样的水平呢？让我们通过历史数据来分析一下。

💎——
历史低波动率的时间点

从2018年以来，比特币的波动率曾在以下7个时间点接近1%至2%的低波动率状态：

1. 2018年熊市最后一跌：在熊市，比特币价格震荡了91天。这种低波动率的震荡行情，在币圈极限震荡时间通常不会超过三个月。
震荡了91天之后，比特币经历了BCH分叉，市场下跌了两��月

2.2018年熊市筑底：
暴跌后又低波动率震荡了105天，大约也是三个月左右，随后从3,000美元上涨到14,000美元。

3. 312之后的修复行情：震荡了77天，比特币价格从7,000美元左右上涨到64,000美元。

4. 上一轮熊市：在FTX��雷之前，比特币震荡了六个月，然后迎来了市场暴跌。

5. FTX爆雷后：市场只震荡了一个半月，但价格从15,000美元暴涨到30,000美元。

6. 去年八九月份：震荡了两个月后，比特币价格从25,000美元涨到70,000美元。

7. 当前市场：我们现在也处在一个低波动率的震荡阶段，时间已经超过了三个月。

💎——
低波动率阶段的市场特征

从历史上的这6个低波动率阶段可以看出两个共同特征：

1. 震荡时间不会超过三个月：大多数情况下，市场在低波动率状态下的震荡时间不会超过三个月。
2. 震荡后必有趋势性行情：每次震荡结束后，市场必然会出现一波趋势性行情，不论是暴涨还是暴跌。

💎——
市场对称性分析

这六个时间点具有一定的对称性：

• A点：熊市最后一跌的震荡。
• B点：熊市筑底的震荡。
• C点：牛市发起之前的震荡。

💎——
当前市���分析

目前，我们的震荡时间已经超过了三个月，市场行情的震荡似乎达到了极限。
有些人可能会觉得现在的波动好像挺大，但其实这是视觉上的错觉。
现在比特币的价格已到6万美元，它震荡10%即6,000美元，看起来波动很大，但实际只有10%。
相比之下，当比特币价格在3,000至4,000美元时，6,000美元的波动率就是200%了。

💎——
近期市场操作建议

在前面6个具有代表性的低波动率时间点中，我在推特上分享了FTX爆雷时的期权操作。
当时，我买了多空双买期权，市场出现了上涨。
但在市场真正方向出现前，我们应该进行波动率交易，而不是直接下注涨跌。
每次震荡结束后的市场选择方向都是类似的。

如果市场真正方向是下跌，一般会有一个上涨的假信号，然后再开启下跌的行情；
如果市场是上涨，也会有一个下跌的假信号，然后再开启上涨。
例如2020年的Defi市场，尽管9月份经历了一波杀跌，但最终市场开启了上涨。

💎——
未来展望

现在的市场情绪较低迷，波动率达到了1.4%，我认为市场大概率会继续上涨。每次低波动率震荡结束后，往往会有一个赛道级的机会。例如：

• 2019年：IEO
• 2020年：Defi
• 2023年：LSD铭文第一波
• 2023年底：铭文第二波

因此，在当前市场的低波动率阶段，我们应多关注链上叙事和市场行情，以把握未来的投资机会。

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

You can't change your situation. The only thing that you can change is how you choose to deal with it.

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

Photos from my previous trip to the UK

[Bitcoin Archive @BitcoinArchive]

BREAKING: Global banking giant Standard Chartered is launching a #Bitcoin and crypto trading desk - Bloomberg

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

The bull run hasn't even started yet, don't get shaken out!

In 2016, BTC had a 30%+ correction post-halving.

In 2020, BTC had a 20%+ correction post-halving.

Alts went parabolic a few months later.

🧵: Why I'm confident that alts will run very soon 👇

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

Cozy afternoons, a cup of coffee, a book, a feeling of life's goodness

[Kevin Svenson @KevinSvenson_]

Every single time market sentiment gets this bad, we are putting in another higher low within a macro uptrend. And somehow, every time, people convince themselves that "it's over."

Buy the dips 💰📈
Stop being a baby 👶🍼

#Bitcoin $BTC #BTC 🔗https://t.co/jqDh2Ua2Jo

[Quinten @QuintenFrancois]

Here we are

#Bitcoin $BTC

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

Lock on the target, adjust your position and let go decisively

[Vince Langman @LangmanVince]

I'm I the only one who doesn't find Taylor Swift attractive in the slightest?

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

Every Japanese dish is a work of art, let us appreciate this beauty and uniqueness together.

[Louis Vuitton @LouisVuitton]

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[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

All of life's unanswered questions and doubts
The answers may be found in the book

[Jennifer🔅 @JenniferSmjy]

No matter how high the sky is, if you stand on your tiptoes, you'll be closer to the sunshine.

[Rihanna @rihanna]

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