Jerry Recipe @Jeremiahgeng1 - Twitter Profile

8 days ago

Wagwan geng! Tuntun ti dey oo. Long time, no story! TGIF! No need to ask how the market went this week—I understand, we are all Man United fans now (up red!). 😂 Grab a bottle of water, let’s gist... Thirteen months ago, during a friendship hangout over suya and cold drinks in Ikeja, two close friends decided it was time to put their money to work (person don dey old nah). Each had ₦1,000,000 sitting idle in a savings account. Victor was the flashy, headline-obsessed investor (he carried his bling-bling lifestyle right into the market😂💀). He loved the glitz of hot sectors. When he put his ₦1,000,000 into Seplat Energy, it was already a heavyweight stock trading around ₦5,000 per share. Victor walked away with 200 shares. Tunde, on the other hand, was quietly obsessive about fundamental value and banking scale. He took his ₦1,000,000 and bought First HoldCo (FBNH) when it was trading low at roughly ₦25 per share. Tunde walked away with 40,000 shares. Over the next year, their WhatsApp group chat became a battleground of noise versus silence. VICTOR (Seplat) TUNDE (FirstHoldCo) Capital: ₦1,000,000 │ │ Capital: ₦1,000,000 │ │ Shares: 200 units │ │ Shares: 40,000 units │ │ Entry: ₦5,000/share │ │ Entry: ₦25/share │ Month after month, Victor flooded the group chat with screenshots of financial news. "Look at Seplat! Moving from ₦5,000 to ₦8,000! Now ₦12,000! Now ₦16,000!" Every financial blog in Nigeria was posting charts of Seplat’s parabolic trajectory. Victor was walking around like a market wizard (on Elumelu level). He was holding a stock that had surged over 220%, pushing near ₦16,000 per share. Tunde said almost nothing. FirstHoldCo wasn't breaking internet algorithms, nor was it getting glamorous tweets. But underneath the surface, a banking re-rating was quietly underway as market caps exploded across financial heavyweights. FirstHoldCo steadily marched up from ₦25 to cross ₦120+ per share. One evening, Victor slapped his hands on the table. "Tunde, you must be regretting that banking move. Seplat went from ₦5,000 to ₦16,000! My stock is a giant!". Tunde smiled, pulled out his phone, and opened his portfolio tracker. VICTOR'S PORTFOLIO (Seplat) 200 shares × ₦16,000 current price = ₦3,200,000 Total portfolio: ₦3.2 Million (+220% return) TUNDE'S PORTFOLIO (FirstHoldCo) 40,000 shares × ₦120 current price = ₦4,800,000 Total Capital: ₦4.8 Million (+380% return) Victor stared at the screen. He refreshed it. He checked the math again. "Wait... how are you almost ₦1.6 Million ahead of me? Seplat is ₦16,000 per share! Your share is only ₦120!" Tunde took a sip of his drink and broke down the math. "Victor, you bought the headline price; I bought share volume and growth percentage," Tunde explained. Seplat at ₦16,000 sounds massive compared to FBNH at ₦120. But because Seplat was already ₦5,000 when you bought in, your ₦1,000,000 only bought 200 units. A big move in nominal price only yielded a 3.2x multiplier. FirstHoldCo moving from ₦25 to ₦120 represents a 4.8x multiplier (+380% gain). Because my entry price was lower, my ₦1,000,000 commanded 40,000 units. Every single ₦1 movement in FirstHoldCo adds ₦40,000 to my portfolio, whereas a ₦1 movement in Seplat only adds ₦200 to yours. Key Market Lessons 1. Avoid Unit Bias: Never measure a stock's potential or earnings power solely by its absolute sticker price. A ₦16,000 stock isn't inherently "better" or growing faster than a ₦25 stock. Total returns are dictated by percentage growth on your invested capital, not nominal naira increments per share. 2. Volume is King: Owning 40,000 shares of a growing company means every small dividend payout or price tick scales heavily across your balance sheet. When First Bank moves up by just ₦1, Tunde gains ₦40,000. When Seplat moves up by ₦1, Victor gains only ₦200.

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Jerry Recipe

@Jeremiahgeng1

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