Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新

#Technology #MENA #China | fmr @stimson @DoD | RT≠endorse

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

I recently launched a new Substack focused on competition across the technology supply chain.

This piece looks at debates in #China over technology autarky vs global integration.

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https://t.co/2igpBW1t0L

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

The interregional deployment of Turkish, Pakistani, and (maybe) Syrian troops to fight the Houthis inside Yemen seems likely to produce the same outcome as Sudan, unless there is a consensus among the Arab League (or at least the GCC).

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🇸🇦🇸🇾🇾🇪Saudi Arabia & Syria are discussing sending Syrian troops to Yemen to join the counteroffensive against the Houthis, three U.S. officials told me. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is seriously considering it, but hasn't decided. My story on @axios
https://t.co/mGwrYQnzPL

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

Who thinks the new American open-models will out compete Chinese open source models? The new BEAM by Reflection AI looks promising, but this will only be the first - at scale - American that lands at this pricepoint.

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

This story is absolutely wild.

[Stephen Dziedzic @stephendziedzic]

Breaking: Anthony Albanese rings up Sam Altman to express "severe concern" after finding out an AI agent hacked into an Australian Medicare data portal in June. Richard Marles says while the impact was "minor" it is a "warning in terms of what can happen"
https://t.co/qKcueP1IVz

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

I find whenever I come back to the U.S. that I try to avoid flying American flagged airlines. I took @americanair in business class. The flight was three hours delayed and somewhere along the way my suitcase was pretty badly damaged. Not my first nor last bad experience.

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

Read @JesCMarks and Nicholas Lyall on how Syria can leverage its emergence as an alternative trade corridor through the Middle East to support its reconstruction.
https://t.co/MVl0mROOIX

[The China-Global South Project @ChinaGSProject]

How much influence does China really have over Iran?

Jesse Marks joins us to explain why Beijing’s economic ties with Tehran may not translate into political leverage and why China is likely to remain a passive player in the Persian Gulf conflict.

Watch: https://t.co/0jUhC6s1hl

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

@AnthropicAI I was using #Fable to brainstorm and red-team AI safety scenarios around extreme overconcentration of power, and it kept bumping me to Opus 4.8. Why do your red lines prevent AI safety research around potential breakout scenarios?

[AGSI @GulfStatesInst]

Saudi Arabia is eyeing the growth of a sovereign compute exchange model that, like OPEC for crude, would let it shape and stabilize long-term compute costs. @JesCMarks https://t.co/tyIcWqgpom

[Andrew Leber @AndrewMLeber]

I wrote for the latest @APSAMENA newsletter on path dependence and Gulf-state AI strategies - read on for how the Gulf monarchies map on to this chart (or did as of February):

[Atlantic Council @AtlanticCouncil]

“Jordan’s path to becoming a regional connectivity hub begins in Riyadh,” writes @JesCMarks.

The Saudi capital is “the necessary first mover that can unlock Jordan’s potential as a node for a new corridor.”
https://t.co/biUhza6i4P

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

One of the most unique chain of thinkers on Syria to read. @dkhalifa, thanks for sharing.

[Dareen Khalifa @dkhalifa]

Sullivan’s inability to respond to such basic nonsense about US policy is painful to watch.

John Stewart did not 'correct him'; he told a silly story about being in a hotel in Jordan with Emiratis and Americans allegedly “funding Nusra.” Stewart may not know the difference between Nusra and the Southern Front (the rebel fighters supported by the US), but anyone who followed the war knows this claim is laughable.

[Gulf Int'l Forum @GulfIntlForum]

"U.S.–China Aligned on Ends, Divided on Means in the Iran War"

In his new article, @JesCMarks examines the #US-#China posture toward #Iran amid the war.

Full analysis: https://t.co/LKpCP8VdwQ

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

The incongruence of Trump policies on Iran are astounding and baffling.

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

I’m back online after a long hiatus and working on normal Middle East topics but also China, AI, tech competition, and geopolitics!

Make sure to follow along here:

https://t.co/k7kgL3WMZD

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

Some #Chinese commentators argue that Iran’s attacks on #GCC #AI infrastructure creates commercial opporunity for Chinese hyperscalrs.

I discuss this & more in my recent piece with Coffee in the Desert

https://t.co/lhwGY5ybfn

[National Committee on U.S.-China Relations @NCUSCR]

🇨🇳🇻🇪🇺🇸 How is China reacting to Venezuela?

@MyersMargaret (@SAISHopkins) and @zhaot2005 (@CarnegieEndow) join @JesCMarks (Rihla Research & Advisory LLC) to discuss how recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela are shifting the strategic landscape between Washington and Beijing.

▶️ Watch: https://t.co/7FHUrjVefz

[Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks]

This will be interesting to see if it comes together.

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

Exclusive: America's Proposal for an Israel-Syria Economic Peace
A new plan for economic cooperation is being discussed with Syria. What does it involve? It appears to be a sprawling joint economic zone along the current demilitarized strip—complete with energy projects, pharmaceutical plants, and, most Trumpian of all, a ski resort.

Let’s just say this comes as a surprise. One would think that after Israel conducted thousands of strikes, and currently sitting on Syrian territory, security would remain the only topic worth negotiating. But it seems the Trump administration and the Syrian government are after something more intimate.

According to the American-Syrian proposal, the zone would host a wind power plant, a crude oil pipeline, data centers, and pharmaceutical facilities—and best of all, the area would remain demilitarized.

The plan offers quite a bit for Syria: roughly $4 billion in GDP growth—a 20 percent increase on its current output—along with an 800-megawatt boost in power capacity, 15,000 new jobs, and a 40 percent reduction in pharmaceutical dependency. Israel, for its part, gains the chance to transform an arid buffer zone into a “dynamic economic corridor,” while enjoying “reduced military spending” to protect its northern border.

Lets just say the imbalance isn’t unusual for Israel’s peace arrangements. Back in 1979, Egypt regained the entire Sinai Peninsula, billions in U.S. aid, and a guarantee that Israel would stop embarrassing it militarily—in exchange for tolerance of its existence.

But what would this new zone actually look like?

Apparently, something akin to the ski region of Zermatt, Switzerland on the Italian border. Not a one-to-one comparison—Israel and Syria are hardly European in structure or sentiment—but the model gives an idea: independent tax rules, relaxed visa requirements, arbitration mechanisms for financial disputes, maybe even a shared currency framework.

Here a question arises: will this whole deal really go through without Syria joining a certain Abrahamic accords?

Unfortunately, yes. From what I’ve seen, none of the draft documents make peace a formal condition of the plan. It may make peace more likely, but by no means guaranteed.

Now, peace in the Middle East aside—it’s a good deal. Economic prosperity is always welcome, and a demilitarized zone with fewer barbed wires and more ski lifts sounds, frankly, delightful. After all, when Israel first expanded its presence into the DMZ following the Assad regime’s collapse, plenty of Israelis joked—half seriously—about the new skiing opportunities.

Still, it needs to be said: however tempting this vision is, Israel should be very careful before it starts trading soldiers for skis.

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

Exclusive: America's Proposal for an Israel-Syria Economic Peace
A new plan for economic cooperation is being discussed with Syria. What does it involve? It appears to be a sprawling joint economic zone along the current demilitarized strip—complete with energy projects, pharmaceutical plants, and, most Trumpian of all, a ski resort.

Let’s just say this comes as a surprise. One would think that after Israel conducted thousands of strikes, and currently sitting on Syrian territory, security would remain the only topic worth negotiating. But it seems the Trump administration and the Syrian government are after something more intimate.

According to the American-Syrian proposal, the zone would host a wind power plant, a crude oil pipeline, data centers, and pharmaceutical facilities—and best of all, the area would remain demilitarized.

The plan offers quite a bit for Syria: roughly $4 billion in GDP growth—a 20 percent increase on its current output—along with an 800-megawatt boost in power capacity, 15,000 new jobs, and a 40 percent reduction in pharmaceutical dependency. Israel, for its part, gains the chance to transform an arid buffer zone into a “dynamic economic corridor,” while enjoying “reduced military spending” to protect its northern border.

Lets just say the imbalance isn’t unusual for Israel’s peace arrangements. Back in 1979, Egypt regained the entire Sinai Peninsula, billions in U.S. aid, and a guarantee that Israel would stop embarrassing it militarily—in exchange for tolerance of its existence.

But what would this new zone actually look like?

Apparently, something akin to the ski region of Zermatt, Switzerland on the Italian border. Not a one-to-one comparison—Israel and Syria are hardly European in structure or sentiment—but the model gives an idea: independent tax rules, relaxed visa requirements, arbitration mechanisms for financial disputes, maybe even a shared currency framework.

Here a question arises: will this whole deal really go through without Syria joining a certain Abrahamic accords?

Unfortunately, yes. From what I’ve seen, none of the draft documents make peace a formal condition of the plan. It may make peace more likely, but by no means guaranteed.

Now, peace in the Middle East aside—it’s a good deal. Economic prosperity is always welcome, and a demilitarized zone with fewer barbed wires and more ski lifts sounds, frankly, delightful. After all, when Israel first expanded its presence into the DMZ following the Assad regime’s collapse, plenty of Israelis joked—half seriously—about the new skiing opportunities.

Still, it needs to be said: however tempting this vision is, Israel should be very careful before it starts trading soldiers for skis.

[Gulf Int'l Forum @GulfIntlForum]

"Parallel, Not Replacement: Why China Can’t Supplant U.S. Security in the Gulf"

In their new article, @JesCMarks and Chenjie Song explore the future of security relations in the #Gulf and what it means for #US and #China engagement in the region.

Read the full article here: https://t.co/GcvhyExTA2