Tomorrow, SpaceX may become the most emotional IPO in modern market history.
My base case: the stock opens sharply above the IPO price, driven by global attention, retail FOMO, institutional scarcity, and the almost mythological power of Elon Musk’s brand. SpaceX is not just another aerospace company. It represents reusable rockets, Starlink, Mars, national security, satellite internet, and the future industrialization of space.
But the first trading day may not be a clean one-way rally. If the opening gap is too aggressive, early buyers may face a violent intraday shakeout. I expect three phases: a strong opening, a fast emotional spike, then heavy profit-taking and price discovery.
The key question is not whether SpaceX is great. It is whether the market can digest an extremely high valuation immediately. Great companies can still produce dangerous entries when the crowd is too excited.
My prediction: SpaceX likely closes above its IPO price, but not necessarily near the intraday high. The smartest trade may be patience, not worship.
This is a historic company, but history still needs a good entry price.
Spece X’s debut on the NASDAQ marks a landmark moment in the progress of human civilization. Everyone who holds its shares will achieve eternal immortality.