Keeping an eye on $RDW here around $2.70 after retracting back from the breakout on feb 15th. Also some good DD on this one if you do a little digging.
@CM_Duq CM! Thought I was seeing a ghost there for a minute. Yup, lots of blood in the streets lately. Enough data in this range as of late to pinpoint daily targets. wasn't too far off on the high/low of day so far. It'll be interesting to see how the market moves this afternoon.
Looking for $SPY to possible retrace to 397.5 at some point today. That was the first level of support for this week, I think it turns into resistance now. On the downward side, looking at 393 flat for next level of support. Historically an important spot.
400.8's once again, pivotal spot. This time on the resistance side. Third day in a row this spot has given away the next direction for an intra-day move.
Noting $SPY showing initial resistance directly off of the top of yesterdays supply zone at $400.8. Eying a play on the same type of set up mentioned mid-day yesterday.
That same spot at the top of the previously supply zone $400.80 now turning into initial support after breaking out of it. Watching to see if it holds on the second test. Good indicator for entry on a play.
Pretty spot on. Nothing great at all came out of the financials but because they mentioned AI dozens of times the market is pumping. Highly over valued here IMO, slowly averaging into a play on puts that I think will pay out at some point in the next few months.
Love this video because its a lot like the strategy I have been using for intra-day lately. Piecing together supply and demand with Fair Value Gaps to identify levels on various time frames like this can be extremely rewarding.
Puts paying big on the support breakdown. Love these on the fence set ups like this. Pretty much the only way to make money is intra-day while the market is out of wack like this. $SPY
Pre-market high and low on $SPY this morning is worth paying attention too. A break above/below of either spot intra-day should produce a scalp opportunity given the way we have been boxed in here. Current pre-market high is roughly 401.30, and the low is roughly 399.90.
Maybe this is a hot take, but I think the relationship between the market, $VIX, & option contract prices over the last 3 weeks is starting to jeopardize the integrity of the market. Cant trust a thing overnight when the market direction isnt properly reflected in contract prices
Current situation:
1. Stocks down like a 50 bps rate hike is coming
2. $VIX down like the Fed just pivoted
3. Oil prices down like we are in a recession
4. Treasury yields up like inflation is at 10%
5. Gold prices down like we have deflation
The Fed broke the stock market.
From a daily perspective $SPY closing just about as expected right on the 200. They wont give anything away. Expecting tomorrow to determine a lot in regard to the upcoming trend.
As expected, $SPY 400 now showing some supply and acting as resistance. Will be interesting if the algos kick it into gear here at close and push it over the hump.
Dropped out of that identified zone. Took a play on puts. Chart below for reference. Red circle was entry. Took the gains here and letting the chart unfold for a little. Need to see if 400 shows supply now or not.
$SPY Churning in this new demand zone 400.10-401. Looking for a break above/below for a scalp either way. 400 seems to be setting up as an important spot in determining the next narrative.
$SPY Churning in this new demand zone 400.10-401. Looking for a break above/below for a scalp either way. 400 seems to be setting up as an important spot in determining the next narrative.
FWIW I have been leaning more towards this being a trap all week. But it will be interesting to see if Puts finally pay today. They sure as hell havent moved much the last 3 days.
JUST IN: PPI data from January was "revised" higher showing inflation at 6.5% instead of 6.2%.
This comes after both December and November CPI inflation data was "revised" higher last week.
First they revise the numbers, then they start changing the calculation methodology.
FWIW I have been leaning more towards this being a trap all week. But it will be interesting to see if Puts finally pay today. They sure as hell havent moved much the last 3 days.
Market continuing to chop & burn premiums. We all see the bull flags, its almost too obvious. But relationship to $VIX the last 3 days is odd. Big move coming soon. Either a bull flag breakout, or the VIX is setting up for violent velocity to the downside. What do you think? $SPY