#NBA: Pelicans @ Knicks
Pelicans +9 @ -110 | 1 unit
The number is pricing the logo and the streak. The game should be tighter.
New York has won 6 straight, but it plays at a 97.49 pace, second-slowest in the league. Laying 9 in a game that short is expensive.
New Orleans isn't the same dead team from January. The Pelicans are 15-11 since Herb Jones returned on Jan. 23 and 9-5 since Dejounte Murray came back on Feb. 24.
These teams already played on Dec. 29 and the Knicks only got home 130-125. Zion had 32 that night.
Zion is still giving you 21.3 a game on 59.8% shooting. That's a bad profile for a favorite trying to win by margin.
New York's defense is good enough to win this. Is it really good enough to create distance without Miles McBride at the point of attack?
Are the Knicks actually covering 9 in a grind, or are we just paying extra for a six-game streak?
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The market is pricing a grinder.
This game is not a grinder.
📈 57-28 (67.1%) last 85 NBA picks
❤️ if tailing.
Dallas is forced into small lineups. That means more early-clock shots, more transition, and way less rim protection.
Houston is built to punish that exact profile. They generate extra possessions better than anyone, and they do it without needing hot shooting.
Run the math: Dallas plays at a 104.2 pace, Houston at 99.0. Houston offense is 115.0 per 100, Dallas is 108.2. That projects 226+ possessions-weighted points, not 222.
If you like the under, you are betting on clean basketball from patchwork rotations. Not happening.
Pick: Over 222 (-110) 1 unit
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