Jo Bhakdi

I generate with $TSLA and AI stocks. Founder of and Thrive in Age of AGI. 🤖 🫡

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Why The AI Scare Is BULLISH For Tesla and SpaceX Stock https://t.co/WAZqxzpH3E

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Everyone is analyzing Terafab as a chip factory. I think that's the wrong frame entirely.

It isn't a fab. It isn't a memory plant. It isn't Tesla's answer to TSMC.

It's a city.

Semiconductor manufacturing is the most fragmented supply chain on earth. Lithography, fabrication, memory, packaging, test, each step sits with a different company, in a different country, with handoffs measured in weeks. Nobody owns the whole stack because nobody can.

So if you want to collapse that, you don't build a better fab. You build a place where every specialist can physically move in, bring their core competency, and have it connect directly to everyone else's. Infrastructure designed around the seams rather than around one process step.

The tell is who's already involved. Intel is in. Samsung is in. Nvidia is clearly interested. If Micron or SK Hynix show up next, or ASML, the pattern confirms itself.

One site, one stack, no handoffs.

$TSLA $SPCX

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

@sphigel1 That could become part of it , unfortunately

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Jensen, the godfather of AI , announces a third type of AI system.

So far, we have heard of training and of inference clusters.

Training is required to create fri tier LLMs and determine the model weights.
Inference is needed to run and deploy the actual agentic systems we all use.

Now, there is a third type emerging: testing systems.

They are needed after training and during deployment to ensure an AI is aligned and safe.

These systems will be enormous and ubiquitous - basically, we are creating an army of billions of hyper intelligent AI workers (inference) and will need an even larger army of hyper intelligent AIs that watch over them so nothing goes wrong.

Interesting.

/AI / the third type of AI system

[The AI Investor @The_AI_Investor]

Jensen: “We have training systems, inference systems, and now testing systems.”

Basically, NVIDIA just found another massive source of compute demand.

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

If the great man theory of history was ever proven, it was when Elon bought Twitter.

The repercussions are enormous. He single handedly brought down the post WWII consensus.

This is akin of the invention of the printing press - we were living in an invisible censorship hell and people could not freely exchange ideas. This has now changed, and the effects will be Reformation-level world changing:

Zeitenwende incoming.

/civ /Elon X

[Arthur MacWaters @ArthurMacwaters]

I still think about this all the time

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Why the end of humanity strongly contradicts the bond marker scare:

You can’t have a technology so powerful and scary that its leaders are concerned about human extinction and at the same time be concerned that 0.25% higher interest rates will inhibit growth.

That’s like saying God is coming to earth, but he will fail because of immigration restrictions.

Anytime any sort of God comes into the equation, including Sandgods and their precursors, marginal yield increases are supersedes by effects of greater magnitude.

More coming today in Pioneerlands !

/civ /Sandgod

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Compute spot prices are now tradable, and they're telling a story the bubble debate keeps missing.

B200 rental: $4.22/hour on January 18th. $7.19 today. Up 80% in eight months.

That alone isn't remarkable. Prices rise when supply is tight. What makes it remarkable is that supply didn't stay tight, global compute capacity exploded over exactly those eight months. Hyperscaler capex, new data centers, Blackwell shipping at scale.

Supply surged. Price still went up 80%.

There's only one explanation for that. Demand is growing faster than the buildout can absorb.

And these aren't analyst estimates or survey data. They're spot prices in a market where people pay real money. That's the cleanest demand signal available, and it points one direction.

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

The market tries to find something negative in the Warsh comments. Fear is high - but Warsh is the most professional FED chair in (my) memory.

Selloff is not convincing

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Cybercab NHTSA audit theory of Pioneerlands gets another confirmation.

Sawyer Merritt today shared the details of the NHTSA request for cybercab self certification.

Skip the first 20 points and go straight to 21: it shows why Pioneerlands assessment was that Tesla is 1) very likely going to fail the audit and 2) the approval of the proposed rules update will likely make the audit irrelevant.

In other words: if the new rule gets adopted before the audit concludes - which is likely - Tesla won’t have a problem with the audit. But the audit itself, independent of the rule adoption, cannot really be passed by cybercab.

+++

21) Certification without an exemption: Given NHTSA’s previous position that additional FMVSS changes would likely be necessary for vehicles operated solely by an automated driving system, explain in detail how Tesla’s vehicles comply with existing requirements without obtaining an exemption under 49 CFR Part 555.

/C /Cybercab NHTSA audit

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Here’s the full list of questions NHTSA wants @Tesla to answer about the Cybercab by September 30:

1) Scaling plans: Describe Tesla’s planned approach for expanding commercial operations to additional vehicles and locations beyond those identified above.

2) Vehicle details: For each subject vehicle, provide its SAE automation level; a representative photo of the certification label; total number of vehicles; all locations where they currently or are expected to commercially operate; and the applicable Operational Design Domain (ODD), including speed, road types/geometries, geographic limits, time-of-day restrictions, and operating/environmental conditions.

3) Applicable safety standards: List every Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) that Tesla determined applies to the subject vehicles and for which Tesla certified compliance.

4) Determining applicability: Explain in detail how Tesla determined which FMVSS, or portions of FMVSS, apply to the subject vehicles.

5) Temporary human controls: Confirm whether the vehicles can be driven by a human using temporarily attached driver controls.

6) Certification using temporary controls: State whether temporarily installed human-driver controls or other equipment were part of Tesla’s basis for certifying compliance with any FMVSS. If so, describe those controls and identify the standards for which they were used.

7) Removal of temporary controls: Explain how removing temporarily installed human-driver controls or equipment complies with the Safety Act’s “make inoperative” prohibition under 49 U.S.C. § 30122(b).

8) How compliance was established: For every applicable FMVSS, explain specifically how Tesla determined the vehicles complied, including the applicable subpart and whether Tesla relied on engineering analyses, physical testing, simulations, or other methods.

9) Evidence of noncompliance: Provide any information or documentation indicating that the vehicles do not comply with an applicable FMVSS, including tests or analyses Tesla may have considered invalid, failed, or “non-tests.”

10) Standards Tesla believes don't apply: Identify any FMVSS - or portion of an FMVSS - that ordinarily applies to passenger cars but that Tesla contends does not apply to the subject vehicles; fully explain the basis for that position; and state whether Tesla’s certification relies on that claimed inapplicability or some other basis.

11) Controls, telltales & indicators: Explain whether and how the vehicles meet FMVSS No. 101 requirements for controls, telltales, and indicators, including whether compliance differs when temporary human-driver equipment is installed.

12) Gear/shift position: Explain whether and how the vehicles display their shift position as required by FMVSS No. 102, including any differences when temporary human-driver equipment is installed.

13) Turn signals: State whether the vehicles have a turn-signal unit that self-cancels through steering-wheel rotation and whether they have a manually operated turn-signal control. If not, explain how Tesla determined compliance with FMVSS No. 108.

14) Rear-visibility requirements: State whether Tesla determined that any or all portions of FMVSS No. 111 S5 do not apply to the vehicles and explain its justification, including any differences when temporary human-driver equipment is installed.

15) Inside rearview mirror: State whether the vehicles have an inside rearview mirror with unit magnification. If so, describe it and provide a drawing showing its location, including any differences when temporary driver equipment is installed.

16) Outside mirrors: State whether the vehicles have outside mirror(s) with unit magnification. If so, describe them and provide a drawing showing their locations, including any differences when temporary driver equipment is installed.

17) Rearview camera/image: State whether the vehicles provide a rearview image satisfying FMVSS No. 111 S5.5.1–S5.5.7. If so, describe it and provide a drawing showing its location, including any differences when temporary driver equipment is installed.

18) Electronic stability control indicators: State whether the vehicles have electronic stability control (ESC) telltales satisfying the applicable FMVSS No. 126 requirements, including any differences when temporary human-driver equipment is installed.

19) Foot-operated service brake: Explain in detail how Tesla determined the vehicles comply with FMVSS No. 135 S5.3.1, which states that “The service brakes shall be activated by means of a foot control.”

20) Touchscreen vehicle controls: State whether occupants can move the vehicle using controls on the vehicle’s touchscreen. If so, describe those controls, when occupants can access them, and any limitations or restrictions on vehicle movement while using them.

21) Certification without an exemption: Given NHTSA’s previous position that additional FMVSS changes would likely be necessary for vehicles operated solely by an automated driving system, explain in detail how Tesla’s vehicles comply with existing requirements without obtaining an exemption under 49 CFR Part 555.

NHTSA: "On September 3, 2026, NHTSA opened Audit Query 26002 to evaluate Tesla’s basis for certifying that its Cybercab vehicle complies with all applicable FMVSS. This Special Order requires information related to the process and technical data on which Tesla relied when certifying the Cybercab and related issues. Tesla’s response to this Special Order must be provided to NHTSA’s Office of the Chief Counsel by September 30, 2026."

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Wow this is crazy- frontier models have zero customer and brand loyalty right now.

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Extraordinary share gains for OpenAI vs. Anthropic over the last two months.

Per Openrouter, OpenAI has gone from 20% share to 50% share vs. Anthropic (meaning Anthropic has gone from 80% to 50%) since June.

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Most people hear "AI compute in space" and file it under science fiction.

It's scheduled for next year.

Nvidia is developing a rack with SpaceX purpose-built for orbital deployment. Solar panels collect energy, radiators handle heat rejection, the compute sits in the middle. None of that is novel, it's how Starlink already works, and there are roughly 10,000 of those satellites in orbit right now.

Musk says he's highly confident SpaceX launches Nvidia VR NVL72 computers in space next year.

Terrestrial compute is running into permits, land, and grid access, and those constraints compound. Orbit doesn't have a zoning board.

SPACEX tracker is now live on: https://t.co/KJRzG3sXIL

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

I think I finally got it.

Thanks Kamala, now it all makes sense!

[homans top guy @passcoderonald]

Finally an expert weighs in

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Many people discuss the EU as a system and organizational theory.

But it's not just a theory.

It is a giant daycare system for people like this - only that they are (for some unknown reason) allowed to "regulate" the people who are productive.

You can't reform this, it needs to go.

[André Rieu @superrieu]

Die Anna von den Grünen kennt sich mal so richtig gut mit #KI aus 😂😂😂

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

AI Compute Prices RISE: How SpaceX And Nebius Stocks Benefit https://t.co/47Oe46UFHM

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Compute demand continues to explode - and outstrip demand.

Nvidia Blackwell 200 compute prices - the gold standard in global compute - are up 21% just in the LAST MONTH.

I am not surprised. Look at Fable, Astra, Grok Bot - AI continues to accelerate, and is at the brink of a major economic utility breakthrough.

What I mean by that is this: the vast majority of businesses and individuals in the developed world are not EVEN CLOSE to consuming any meaningful amount of AI, because they don't know what to do with it. At the moment where a breakthrough product appears that has obvious and undeniable broad business and application value, this changes rapidly.

Astra, Fable and GrokBot are nearly there (in different ways, which makes this even more interesting). I am very sure that in the next 6-9 months, a broad breakthrough happens and adoption will increase by many magnitudes.

On a small scale, this is already happening - indicated by the compute price increases - but we have nothing seen yet.

Bet on compute.

/AI /Exponential demand

[Jonah Lupton @JonahLupton]

This can’t be right… because Michael Burry told me that GPUs would be worthless after a few years ☠️

B200 prices up 21% MoM… that must be horrible for the ai infrastructure buildout 🙄 how can we afford the capex 😫

Stop listening to all the clowns that love to push FUD and create panic selling… focus on the data and metrics… ai demand is massive and it’s accelerating especially for inference.

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

@ar72428 It’s weird to see. Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 has infinite potential. The more sovereign the pioneers are the stronger they get

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Wow - that could a really be a smart move.

The UK is super-toast, and fixing it in smaller pieces might be the right way.

I was always in favor of getting Europe back to its real strength - which is diversity of cultures and strategies.

Not in the sense of primitive savage cultures, but in the sense of the original, high IQ and high civilization cultures of Europe.

Europe is strongest when it is diverse - hundreds of regions that exchange and compete - as long as the peace imperative is in place.

[The Telegraph @Telegraph]

The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will gather on Monday to sign a deal designed to kick-start the break-up of the United Kingdom, The Telegraph can disclose.

🔗: https://t.co/VeumqCHVkT

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

@DRushansky98249 🫡♥️

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

It's important to not forget that Northern European countries have a VERY different cultural fabric than the USA.

If you are a non-European foreigner in the UK, Germany, Denmark etc., you will feel a shift in sentiment against you in a very different way than in the US.

This sentiment shift is in full swing now.

It is very important that the new political right wins as many elections as quickly as possible to front-run this shift.

Remigration is inevitable and will happen.

In an ideal world, it happens NOW and QUICKLY, led by democratic and moderate political actors like the AfD, Restore, SD, LePen etc.

If the underlying and inevitable cultural trajectory runs too far ahead of political action, things will get very ugly.

And if you think Germans, French, English, Vikings, Romans and Spanish people aren't capable of violence, maybe take a second look at the history of the world.

I don't have an opinion, recommendation or endorsement on any of this of this, I am just describing what I see and what I know.

The idea that the AfD is in any way "radical" is hilariously ignorant.

[Visegrád 24 @visegrad24]

Eight out of 10 migrants said they are considering leaving the state of Saxony-Anhalt in eastern Germany after the AfD won a historic landslide victory there with 43.8% of the vote, more than doubling its previous result and becoming by far the largest party in the state parliament.

The AfD campaigned on a major immigration crackdown, including a deportation and “remigration” offensive, ending refugee reception programs and pushing for the abolition of the constitutional right to asylum.

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Tim is smart - I recommend Wait but Why

[Tim Urban @waitbutwhy]

It
is
not
like
other
technologies

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Who has more power over AI? Elon, Sam and Dario combined, or the US government?

Speaker Johnson: tech companies must be responsible for AI safety, not Congress.

That's the regulator declining to regulate.

So the people building the technology are also the ones deciding what's safe, how fast it goes, and when to stop. Three men who compete viciously with each other now agree the frontier needs pacing and their agreement carries more weight than any bill on the floor.

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

Why SpaceX Will SKYROCKET After 2027 https://t.co/UDNK2xhPm6