Joe C

I like track, lifting, beer, golf, and the stock market. *Nothing I post, like, or share, should be taken as investment advice*

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

So many will be caught offsides when we emerge from this bear market. So many will look back and say “why did I think we were going into a 5 year historic bear market?”

In 5 years it’s more likely we trade at 30x earnings than sub 10x earnings…and probably have 50%+ eps growth

[Gunjan Banerji @GunjanJS]

Equity futures positioning for asset managers and leveraged funds is now the **most short** on RECORD -DB

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

The idea that if the stock goes down after you start buybacks…then somehow it was a waste is silly. The stock would fall even more without it and lead to disenfranchised employees and more activism.

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

$MTCH is a great example of how well buybacks work when a company is cheap. In the last few years they reduced share count by 20% and now is experiencing meaningful EPS growth in the face of a difficult backdrop.

This was the best strategy they coulda done and ofc gets no credit

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

Far too many criticize buybacks because the stock hasn’t taken off…realistically there was nothing $MTCH coulda done to completely avoid a slowdown in Tinder…but buying back shares at good prices has made the stock work again.

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@mr_deepvalue For example Meta didn’t have a single insider buy when it fell below $100 a share…just slowing of selling just like $ADBE now

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@mr_deepvalue Hasn’t been a history of many insider buys and yet it’s compounded at 20% annualized for 40 years. Some companies…typically ones that have above average market returns for a long time…don’t have a lot of insider buys regardless of price because of how much wealth accumulated

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

$ADBE has had nearly the same return as $AAPL for the last 40 years…beating it significantly before this drawdown. It really is one of the most under-appreciated mega winners for decades.

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

$ADBE IPOed in 1986. Its annualized return has been 19% since then. 40 years of nearly 20% annualized returns counting its significant underperformance as of late. Anything can happen but very very rarely can you buy a stock with that history in a 70% drawdown.

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@RampCapitalLLC Dave’s Hot is better in all ways…

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@EvanWritesOnX Imo this is most similar to $META in the 2022 timeframe. The fundamental case for the future was not deteriorating at all. Their investment in AI was taken as a bad thing! Just like $ADBE today. And even then $META did actually see sales slow…while $ADBE growth is accelerating

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@EvanWritesOnX So yes stocks trade on future prospects…but it’s really about the change in future prospects as time goes on. Futures prospects look stronger now than 6 months ago…only thing that has changed to the downside is CFO leaving for another company…which would cause a 1% dip not 30%

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@dissectmarkets I’m saying their sacrifice still equates to above market growth. It’s a win win really.

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@dissectmarkets Yes and in this case “sacrificing” means 15% earnings growth lol

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@TidefallCapital @ariaradnia Stock has returned 20% annualized since ipo in 1986…while I bet we start to see some insider buying here…most insiders prob have more than their fair share that has appreciated since forever

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

Believe me…I understand the bear case on $adbe…but this is a prime example of how bad Wall Street coverage is. Every firm downgrading PTs while updating their estimates higher. When you have no consistency in framework, then it’s clear ur PT means nothing…

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

@basilialukos And just bought 8 million more this quarter at a much lower share price…that’s what u want to see. Increasing buyback when stock gets cheaper.

[Joe C @JoeCandito12]

SpaceX is gonna trade at 100x+ sales while Adobe is gonna trade at 7x earnings. But yes I’m a sure it’s justified because $adbe faces 100x more uncertainty than a space company…right?