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Amen. πβ€οΈ
@rosskay @maelan_sdmr what a stupid loser you are. guaranteed to surpass Zillow in market cap which means it is the most valuable creation in residential real estate in the Western World.
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This prayer makes me think you are in the room with me! Amen!
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Father God, today Iβm reaching out in faith for a miracle that completely changes the story. Iβm ready for a new chapter to begin. Open doors I once thought could never open. Send a powerful shift that unlocks opportunities I couldnβt even imagine. Guide me forward, one step at a time, with the Holy Spirit. You have already prepared the way before me. When my knees feel weak, hold me steady. I choose to trust You instead of replaying yesterdayβs pain. In Jesus' name, Amen.
$OPEN
As long this is trading between 6-3$ everything here is a buy for me.
The next move should aim arround 17,27-27,44$
I would prefer something in the 20$ range
Letβs see how this works out !
AMEN!
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Dear Father in Heaven, we thank You for Your goodness and for the peace You give us. Unite us as Your people with all Your children who have ever lived and all who want to serve You. The more faithfully we belong to You, the more blessing You can give. Let the material world come under Your hand. Guide Your children on earth so others may be helped. Grant us strength in suffering and understanding of Your Will. Protect us today and in eternity. In Jesus' name, Amen.
Very fitting for today! Amen! π
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Dear Lord, Every day feels like a battle for my thoughts. Please renew my mind through the living truth of Your Word. Train my heart to dwell on what is good, honorable, beautiful, and worthy of You. Give me the strength to catch every distracting or harmful thought and surrender it to Your peace. Transform my thinking, my attitudes, and my choices until I look more like Jesus and less like the world around me. I want to think like You think and love what You love. In Jesus' name, Amen.
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Heavenly Father,
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May Your grace be upon me today and always.
In Jesusβ name, Amen. βοΈβ€οΈ
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$OPEN long-form analysis below. The only company perfectly positioned to technologically disrupt the last trillion-dollar consumer market AI hasn't rewired. Fade at your own risk. The upside bull thesis, the management team, asymmetry and moat. Hope you find it informative. As always - welcome feedback, challenges, questions.
I first invested in $OPEN July 2025 when it was apparent leadership was going to be changing due to the activism @ericjackson was effectuating. There prior, residential real estate had always stood out to me as 1) extremely arduous for homebuyers to navigate (inefficient/complex transaction process somehow still demanding 6% value from transacting parties) and 2) one of the few industries of scale still ripe for technological disruption. The original position was speculative given the vast uncertainty on replacement CEO, lack of company vision/strategy, and real downside not as protected by SOTP as I would typically prefer. @nejatian stepping in couldn't have been a more perfect fit for the company and significantly addressed the thesis gaps for me as a shareholder. That starting position from July has been added to multiple times over the past year and now represents ~10% of my portfolio, being my 4th largest position. Arguably, it should be larger.
UPSIDE
Opendoor is the only company still pursuing principal-based iBuying of residential real estate (RRE) at national scale. Every other company who tried has failed, now leaving Opendoor as the last disrupter standing, they do not have a single competitor (Offerpad has shrunk to irrelevance) as it relates to the digital transformation of RRE. If they are successful on their stated ambitions, they will achieve escape velocity and monopolize the digital share of the ~$2 trillion dollar annual transaction market. It is difficult to put a cap on the upside company valuation in their most successful future iteration of themselves.
RRE is highly fragmented, decentralized across millions of realtors / brokers / thousands of MLSs. The buyer/seller experience is complex and time-consuming. Pain points include 4+ month timelines, 6% commissions, financing-contingency fall-throughs, prep/repair friction. Not to mention management of multiple counterparties (inspection, lending, title, bank, etc) all segregated into their own online platforms a buyer/seller must navigate and manage themselves.
Opendoor's stated mission most simply put is "returning time to people". Their starting point is capturing the market by improving the buy/sell customer experience. Once/if they do that, the layers of products the can add to that is uniquely extensive.
1) Capturing market share via iBuying
Opendoor and previously Zillow have both to date failed at generating profit on this business because structurally they were trying to play the wrong game. While their product was working and desirable to customers, their monetization was flawed in that they were prioritizing margin first over flow. Wherein it should be flow first followed by incrementally improving margin. Focusing on margin first trapped both into believing they could call the market correctly and hold positions to increase value. With such a capital and debt intensive product, that is a risky bet and when wrong bleeds cash unnecessarily. Both companies never achieved full year profitability on iBuying. Zillow's Q3 2021 ~$304M inventory write-down and ~$422M Homes-segment loss triggered their exit. Opendoor at one point had a Q3 2022 ~$573M inventory write-down.
Enter Kaz. He realized this game is about selling homes faster. You don't necessarily need wide margins, you just need to achieve escape velocity and monopolize iBuying to establish your moat. Opportunities are endless thereafter. Many may think this is wrong place wrong time to concern oneself with iBuying due to the historical failures and the macro environment impacts on RE. Ironically, despite the headwinds, Opendoor is executing this turnaround at the perfect point in time. AI is disrupting and will disrupt everything. Opendoor is weaponizing AI to unlock the true value potential of this strategy. A tool neither Zillow or Open had when they first launched. Kaz stated in Q1 earnings on AI disruption:
"It just hasn't happened in real estate. Real estate's, like, honestly the last, major holdout. Not because the category is fundamentally immune from this, but because the underlying complexity made it a little too messy to transact at scale. AI just totally removes this constraint."
"Our business was built as if it was waiting on mana to fall from heaven, and it now has" (lol)
The bet is that AI-driven cost structure makes thin margins viable even if macro environment is temporarily more challenging. To see how the AI-drive cost structure works, reference the "Asymmetry/Moat" section below.
How does success translate into value?
Opendoor is targeting contribution margin of 5β7% of revenue. Think of it as simply stepping into the fees real estate agents would've otherwise kept for themselves. At a ~$410K resale, 6% = ~$24,600 of contribution profit per home. This is gross of all corporate G&A, marketing, tech, and interest.
Where are their key metrics today? As of Q1:
-Acquisition contracts: 5,000+ the most since Q2 2022.
-1,921 homes sold (assumed market share of .2%)
-Aged inventory: collapsed from 51% to 10%.
-Contribution margin: recovered to 4.4%, up from the 1.0% trough, improving every month.
If we use their Q1 metrics and take two assumptions (5k homes sold in Q2 and avg $410k sale price) here's the annualized expected profit
~0.4% of US homes sold -> 20k/yr -> 4.4% contribution margin -> $361M contribution margin
The key metrics to zoom in on are homes sold and contribution margin. That translates into Contribution Profit and is a better valuation metric vs Revenue for their respective business model. If the above is the base case, below is are contribution profit annualized scenarios against those two metrics.
With a 4.4% contribution margin:
1% of US homes β 50K/yr β ~$0.9B contribution profit
2.5% of US homes β 125K/yr β ~$2.25B contribution profit
5% of US homes β 250K/yr β ~$4.5B contribution profit
10% of US homes β 500K/yr β ~$9B contribution profit
With a 6% contribution margin:
1% of US homes β 50K/yr β ~$1.23B contribution profit
2.5% of US homes β 125K/yr β ~$3.08B contribution profit
5% of US homes β 250K/yr β ~$6.15B contribution profit
10% of US homes β 500K/yr β ~$12.3B contribution profit
[Assumes 5M annual homes sold in US. Assumes $410k avg sales price]
Opendoor is sitting at ~$5B MC today. The market is virtually pricing $OPEN at their current metrics (including cash on hand), less than 3 quarters into a turnaround. Otherwise stated, any growth from here on out is not priced in. That is your opportunity. Meanwhile, Opendoor expects to be profitable on a 12mo go fwd basis in Q2 of this year, Kaz is less than 9 months into his CEO tenure, and all of this growth was done in a terrible RE macro environment (transaction volumes are at multi decade lows, mortgage rates are stubbornly elevated, and consumer sentiment is the gutter). The tailwinds for Opendoor when those flip will be strong.
From my seat, I see it as very possible they achieve 1% of the market and ~6% contribution margin on an annualized basis at some point this year. That means FMV should be at the very minimum ~$10B MC. You can ascribe your own probabilities to them growing beyond that. But I'm betting a 5% market share over the next 3-5 years is in play. And in that scenario, the market valuing them at ~$50B to $60B.
These are just the table stakes. The core business. Revenue generating opportunities snowball if they execute on the core.
PS: this is just within the US market β¦ global expansion eventually? Sheesh.
2) Additional revenue generating products once/as market dominance is established
In just a few months they've launched the below products which either were implemented with AI or utilize AI in and of themselves:
-OpenDoor Title intake
-OpenDoor Mortgage
-OpenDoor Escrow
-OpenDoor AI Underwriting
-Home assessment capabilities
-AI Audit tool to reconcile inspection with repair decisions
There's a lot of pigs at the trough collecting fees throughout the RE purchase process. Opendoor can provide every single service themselves, and if they scale, at a cheaper price to customers. They aren't just disrupting real estate agents, they're disrupting all aspects of the financing around the real estate market. I won't dive deep into the TAM for each individual segment. But billions are there for Opendoor to capture if they get the underlying engine running profitably.
You can even get more creative on how they could monetize their market share further. After they get the baseline established, I could see Kaz drawing on his Shopify experience in some form or fashion to incorporate product offerings around furnishing the homes or otherwise. Additionally, RWA tokenization of real estate (while not a current prio) could be another avenue at some point in the future. At minimum, they're already prioritizing on chain mortgages and titles.
If current valuation looks conservative against the core business, it looks egregious against the adjacent business set. The winner in the space gets a piece of everything, not just the transaction margin.
MANAGEMENT TEAM
If you do one thing after reading this post, just go listen to the Q1 earnings call. Kaz is an absolute unit. Dude is on overdrive consistently. Notably, during his tenure at Shopify, their respective market cap grew from $40B to $186B . Nearly 5x. Heβs seen first hand, and directly contributed to major company reform and growth. He's not only been underwritten by both co-founders (who are back on the board in a supporting fashion) but also by @mikealfred who, in my opinion, has one of the highest bars for CEO quality and does significant due diligence before investing in a CEOs company. He's well over $10M invested into the company now (3rd or 4th largest holding). Lot to be said about that. Finally, Kaz has invested $1.5M of his own money into the company via stock purchases. 125k shares at $8 bucks and 100k shares at $5 bucks.
Kaz is flanked by Lucas Matheson (@lucmatheson) former CEO of Coinbase Canada. He's in charge of exploring applications for blockchain technology and tokenization in the housing market. Matheson's framing in his hire announcement is the clearest articulation of the thesis: "Real estate remains one of the last major asset classes largely untouched by financial innovation." His Coinbase background is fantastic. But he also is a Shopify alum. Kaz has recruited (successfully) hard on his previous Shopify colleagues. Including many of the top engineers. You can't understate the inherent alignment on the vision for Opendoor shared by all of these former Shopify employees. They're simply all drawing on their success at Shopify and replicating the quick wins immediately with a shared vision (less friction).
Keith Rabois and Eric Wu (original co-founders) both returned to the board last year. Their backgrounds speak for themselves, but what is most important here is that the "heart" of the company is back in the saddle. The fact they're back to re-up on blood/sweat/tears for Opendoor means they see the opportunity window as wide open compared to when they first started the company.
The combination of these execs makes for the best opportunity at RRE tech/ai disruption available in public equity markets possibly ever.
ASYMMETRY/MOAT
It's fair to say that if they fail, the downside is not baked in. This is not a Graham net-net IMO. Book is ~$1B against a ~$5B cap. Some might say the downside protection is not asset value, it's low bankruptcy risk*. But as I see it, the lack of a SOTP floor (at current valuation) is replaced by the team executing in quite literally one of the worst recent RE economic environments to do so. They're about to turn a profit in less than one year against major headwinds outside of their control. Which means it isn't unreasonable to view their upcoming Q2 earnings (and associated FMV) as base case downside protection (over a long enough time horizon). And a very small possibility of them ever trading at book value considering. The payoff ratio is strongly positive in my probability weighted scenarios.
*The balance sheet is strong. Opendoor cut total debt from ~$2.3B (end of 2024) to ~$1.3B (Q1 2026) and pushed maturities out (the 2025 convert exchange into 7% notes due 2030). With $1B cash on hand, they're well positioned to go execute without dilution on the horizon in the near term.
Finally, the moat cannot be understated. The moat is a data flywheel: more transactions β more proprietary pricing data β tighter, more accurate spreads β better offers and lower fall-through β more flow β more data. Closed-loop, outcome-based. Scale compounds into advantage, and it's a mechanism a new entrant can't shortcut, because they'd start with no data in a business where mispricing bleeds cash. The second layer compounds the first: the owned transaction stack. Title, escrow, mortgage, and settlement are additional revenue lines, but they're also a structural cost advantage. If Opendoor captures margin across the full transaction, it can underprice a future competitor on the core spread and still make money on the stack. This moat is one of my favorite parts of the entire thesis.
CLOSING
The upside, management team, asymmetry and moat are all taking shape. And we're already seeing the execution. If RRE is going to be disrupted, $OPEN is the company to do it. Once macro constraints are lifted, I think the Opendoor story will really begin to shine to the broader market, and investors will want to ride that wave up. Now is potentially a limited window to position in this name when it is still out of favor more broadly.
Amen!
Today's Prayer βοΈ
Dear Lord, Where there is hatred, let me sow love, where there is injury, pardon, where there is doubt, faith, where there is despair, hope, where there is darkness, light, where there is sadness, joy. Grant that I may not so much seek to be consoled as to console, not so much to be understood as to understand, not so much to be loved as to love; for it is in giving that we receive, it is in pardoning that we are pardoned, it is in dying that we awake to eternal life. In Jesus' name, Amen.
Amen!
Today's Prayer π
Heavenly Father, hear my prayer for healing. Thank You that You are the resurrection and the life, death holds no power over You. Your word says that You will be the cries of all those who call on You. You say that you will send out Your word and heal them. Increase my faith that I may call on Your unfailing love for the healing and recovery that I need. Lord, bless me and keep me, make Your face shine upon me. Turn Your face towards me and give me peace. In Jesus' name, Amen.
Amen!
Heavenly Father,
Thank You for Your love, mercy, and grace. Please guide me today, give me strength for every challenge, and fill my heart with peace. Protect my family and loved ones, forgive my sins, and help me walk in Your ways. Increase my faith and remind me that You are always with me.
In Jesusβ name, Amen.
Amen!
Today's Prayer βοΈ
Heavenly Father, In this life we sometimes face heartbreak, betrayal, and loss from those we trusted most. Yet in Your mercy, You bless us with unexpected love, form new and deeper friendships, and give us strength to overcome trials we once thought impossible.Though certain chapters with people must end, we take comfort knowing the best part of our story is still being written by Your loving hands.Thank You for turning our pain into purpose and our ashes into beauty. In Jesus' name, Amen.
Amen!
Today's Prayer βοΈ
Dear God, I know deep down that You do not make mistakes. I am crafted by Your hand, a work of art, not an afterthought. You are the potter, and I am the clay; You are the gardener, and I am the garden. Your Word says I am Your masterpiece, crowned with Your favor. I am not lacking anything in Christ, I am fully equipped to walk the path You have laid out for me. Guide me in the changes I need to make, and shape me into who You have called me to be. In Jesus' name, Amen.
Amen!
Today's Prayer βοΈ
Dear Lord, defend us in the battle of life. Be our shield against the darkness, the evil, and the snares that seek to trap us. In Your mighty name, rebuke the forces of harm. By Your sovereign power, drive out all evil, all spirits of deceit and destruction that prowl the world seeking the ruin of souls. Surround us with Your Holy light, guard our hearts and minds, and lead us in paths of peace and righteousness. We place our trust in You alone, now and forever. Amen.
Amen!
Today's Prayer βοΈ
Blessed are You, Sovereign God, Creator of all things. To You be glory and praise forever. You formed the earth in the beginning, and the heavens are the work of Your hands. In the fullness of time, You made us in Your image, and in these last days You have spoken to us through Your Son, Jesus Christ, the Word made flesh. As we rejoice in the gift of Your presence among us, let the light of Your love shine in our hearts. In Jesus' name, Amen.
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