@CrossCountryUK 6.01 train to Leeds. The overcrowding is a joke. I can't even get to my seat even if I wanted to ask the people there to move. A few seats near me have been double booked. I chose this service as it was cheaper, why make the busier trains cheaper?
3. Using @MetOffice_Sci's unified model, analysis of Hagupit shows the uncertainty to be linked with the storm moving into a saddle point in the environment. Even with a perfect model, one small difference in initial position can lead to a completely different track. #CDTTweCon
2. Mathematical models generally do a good job at predicting a TC's motion… But not always. Hagupit was one such case where the track was poorly predicted. Ensemble forecasts showed large uncertainty in where the storm would go. Across the Philippines or turn north? #CDTTweCon
1. 'The Uncertainty of Typhoon Hagupit (2014)'. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are amongst the deadliest natural phenomena in the world. Accurately predicting these storms is vital for the communities they affect. However, to predict them we must also understand them. #CDTTweCon