John Brick

Brick by Brick, you build a better life. CIO of a small RIA. Looking to expand clients and investment ideas

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

Treat strangers like friends and friends like family

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@cervellette Hey - How do you get your Disc. Revs 10% numbers ... I'm trying to model as well and just not sure what to use. Are you using 2P reserves and forecasting those out over like 10 years?

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

This is not at all related to Gavin but how does anyone actually know or trust any of these numbers?

[Gavin (humanist/acc) @GavMcCracken]

I fully apologize everyone. I simply wasn't bullish enough oil.

American Petroleum Institute (API) release on the inventory changes within America:

Crude -8.1MM
Gas: -6.1MM
Dist: -4.6MM

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

Apparently $TMDX didn't like the lines I drew!

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

I’m super confused, it’s closed below many more than 6 times …

[Esther & Michael @SuperLuckeee]

SPY closed below the 200-day SMA 6 times in history.

Every single time, it recovered.

Here's every time it broke, what caused it, and the return after it crossed back above 200SMA again:

🔴 Sep 2000 – Apr 2003 (31 months)
Dot-Com bubble burst. Trillions in overvalued tech stocks imploded.

Drawdown: −49% | 1Y return after: +33%

🔴 Jan 2008 – Jun 2009 (17 months)
Global Financial Crisis. Overleveraged banks, toxic mortgage debt collapsed.

Drawdown: −57% | 1Y return after: +45%

🟡 Aug 2011 – Oct 2011 (3 months)
US credit downgraded for the first time ever. Euro debt crisis erupted.

Drawdown: −21% | 1Y return after: +27%

🟣 Feb 2020 – Jul 2020 (4.5 months)
COVID-19 shut down the global economy overnight.

Drawdown: −34% | 1Y return after: +43%

🔵 Jan 2022 – Feb 2023 (12.5 months)
Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in 40 years to kill inflation.

Drawdown: −25% | 1Y return after: +26%

🟠 Feb 2025 – Mar 2025 (1.5 months) ← WE ARE HERE
Tariff war shock rattled global markets. SPY hit $481.
Drawdown: −31% | 1Y return after: +40%

Avg 1Y return after crossing back above the 200SMA: +35%

Episode 6 just triggered. The market has never NOT recovered. This time it will recover fast as soon as the WAR is over.

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

What am I doing wrong? I get different data than he does ... The 10-week MA is not at a bottom ...

[Seth Golden @SethCL]

When they say you can't call bottoms:

I'll remind you of this post and one other, whereby the indicator perfectly timed the April 2025 bottom.

Combing through my X, you'll recognize I humbly called every bottom to the day, since 2018.

Lastly, there is no "bottom indicator", as every mkt cycle is different, and each bottom therefore signaled by a different key indicator. What matters most for being able to be within 1-3% of market bottom is sequencing the trend of the cycle properly in order to utilize the most appropriate indicator/stochastic/breadth for which the existing cycle is signaling a bottom.

$SPX $ES_F $SPY $NYA $QQQ $IWM $NDX $DIA $VIX

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

How can it be a buying opportunity when the stocks are all green?! Haha

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: JPMorgan says that the Iran conflict is a "buying opportunity," not a reason to sell stocks.

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@LasVegasLocally What AI tool can create this?

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

I love this so much - I often talk about the 99% vs. 1% of people

[Dr. Julie Gurner @drgurner]

A lot of high performance is going against "what's natural" for the average person:
- Push when others would back off
- Run forward where others avoid
- Long game vs Quick rewards

Once you can go against the natural tendencies most have - the whole world is yours.

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@calvinfroedge What do we consider good mine life?

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@robpizzola @JeffNadu How do we know all this?

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@aaditsh AI

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@alc2022 Do you have a write- up?

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@SuperLuckeee Share

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@felixprehn Stocks

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

@DumbMoneyCapitl What’s your strategy for finding these “before” they move

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

This is heart breaking

[Collin Rugg @CollinRugg]

NEW: New footage released by @masslivenews shows Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska looking up in horror, trying to process what had just happened to her after being stabbed.

Zarutska was seen putting her face in her hands as she bled out.

Heartbreaking.

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

Pershing Square $CMG

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

Pershing Square $UBER

[John Brick @JohnBrick2]

Found my next short

[amit @amitisinvesting]

BREAKING: Chamath Palihapitiya is launching a new SPAC. The company will be worth $250M & offer 25M shares at $10 per share.

It is called “American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp.”

Chamath’s previous SPACs including Opendoor, Virgin Galactic, and Clover Health are each down over 50% all time.