John Penney

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

1) Cars travel at maybe 80 mph max, except maybe the mentally chalenged ones that you identify can get up to 100 mph. Satellites in a 250 nmi orbit travel at 17000 mph. 1 second at 100 mph 150 ft. 1 second at 17000 mph 25000 ft. Also you can’t just turn you steering wheel to get out of the way in space. You have to calculate how you turn and how you accelerate.
2) Yep, I know space is big. So why did the above incident occur if it is so big as you. Why does ISS have to do collision avoidance maneuvers every day. Why are satellite launch windows routinely limited to collision avoidance issues? But I do know space is big.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

@crm11422 @Starlink Rephrase, Yes it sounded like blame but that was not my intent. I was trying to say rapidly adding satellites in LEO makes these issues more frequent, so it does contribute to the risk, it does not remove risk from anyone else.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

Best response to my questions yet. Thanks. I would also hope that SpaceX is initiating conversations with the government, other contractors, the defense department,etc driving changes into the system to mitigate these types of issues. When they are the major player they need to be leading across the industry.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

Did I blame SpaceX? What I am implying is when SpaceX owns 80% of the satellites in orbit they hold a larger share of the risk. The post would be better if instead of SoaceX saying we cannot mitigate the risk when another operator…. It would have been better to say SoaceX takes this risk seriously based on our projected constellation numbers. This is what we are doing to drive changes into them system to mitigate these risks.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

I am saying SoaceX needs to accept their contribution to the cumulative risk and what that thing is that I am getting does to outweigh that risk. My cell service and 1Gb internet is doing just fine for me. Grow it if you want, but tell me more than hundreds of thousands of satellites is OK, we’ve got you covered.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

Falcon heavy roadster mass with hardware, 13000 lbs. Orion going to the moon 58000 lbs. the Falcon heavy reference is something most heavy launch vehicles could achieve (Titan IV, Delta IV heavy, etc). I’m pretty sure starship can’t get to escape velocity with a 300 ton payload on a single launch.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

Ok so you are saying that when we are faced with orders of magnitude increases in numbers of satellites in LEO,the risk is the same as it is now, because they communicate. Using your analogy, so when there were 2000 aircraft in the air in the early days and it was projected that there were going to be hundreds of thousands of aircraft in the air, you would have just said, we should be good, the pilots communicate, it should be no different with 500000 planes in the air? I am just saying everyone should acknowledge their contribution to the cumulative risk.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

No need for research, I know how satellites are managed and I know how they share data on positioning. I have worked in the industry and I am not blind to it. I also know that there is a work force and infrastructure that has only dealt with orders of magnitude less numbers of satellites than we are projecting now. So I am hoping that those with those cool tools, understand the issues of cumulative risk.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

It’s not giving up, it’s just asking a question. What am I giving up on? Besides saying Elon wants to put 100000 satellites in orbit that must be a good thing those of you with questions are giving up we can have a conversation on the impacts of cumulative risk with these massive constellations and the rate at which they should grow.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

I never would have tried to make that comparison. In the early days of air travel (when there were only tens of thousands aircraft in the sky. There were many instances that killed passengers which were later corrected with new technology. We will very soon enter a world where there could be 100000 satellites in orbit which has never happened before (Just like when there were only 40000 aircraft in the air. I don’t believe that is the best rapid solution as there is no way of defining the current unknown risk. I am not even sure we couldn’t achieve the same goals with smaller constellations. I think we need to ask those questions. SpaceX is driven entirely by their profit goals, Imdont blame them. I have always said space is big too. But an “oops” in LEO when things are moving at 20000 mph could cause a few problems.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

@LowPolyTwits @Starlink The statement is “this is the biggest risk in LEO and I would think that a SpaceX should acknowledge that they will soon own 80% of the satellites in LEO so the relative risk will be mostly theirs.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

Maybe you mean can escape earths orbit with a single launch, but can’t do much else past that? And you include low mass, so not a fully crew capable (solar arrays, eclss, suits, landing legs, food, water, etc) correct? So getting past LEO in a single launch gets you what? Just a comparison to SLS which just carried a crew to the moon and back with all those other things on board.? Again, Apples and Oranges. I am trying to make the point that everyone needs to remember that there can be multiple solutions for things like this and we don’t all have to coalesce to Starship is the greatest thing for everything.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

One last correction. I said that Starship can’t make it past LEO in one launch like SLS. It can make it past LEO but it needs upwards of 15 refueling flights to do it because it is carrying hundreds of tons of nonessential hardware. I am not trying to be negative, I am just hoping that people know what that $130M per flight actually means.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

And it still wouldn’t get past LEO. You can make it expendable, blow it up, but there is not enough energy on board to get it out of LEO. T/W is not the appropriate metric you need to use. It is how much impulse do you need to get the amount of mass you have (which is a lot) to the velocity you need to get to the moon. Therefore, $130M still won’t get you to the moon.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

See my answer on the other post attached to this on car risk. Also cars don’t travel at tens of thousands of miles an hour and they also don’t require a complex guidance computer to turn left. I do get the talking points though: “Space is Big and there are a lot of cars out there, we should be just fine.”

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

@zebadia7 @Starlink Doesn’t the footage above show it is smaller than you believe? Big or small there will always be risk. Planning to launch tens of thousands of satellites, at will, just increases that risk, even with good technology.

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

Yet even with the safest cars on the road today, on average there would be six deaths resulting from accidents for those 40000. Does the philosophy of “Space is Big” rule out the possibility of unforeseen accidents? The footage in the post shows that the space is big mantra doesn’t necessarily work at all times. I’m just saying that if someone has 80% of the satellites that are in orbit, doesn’t their contribution to the risk increase substantially even with good technology? I am a big proponent of technological growth in all areas, I am just having a hard time thinking that launching as many satellites as one can in orbit, with no limits, especially with starship on the horizon, is the best move relative to potential accumulative risks that will build up. Since Starship can launch 100s of tons to orbit, why not launch much more powerful satellites that can do more with a smaller constellation (see GPS)?

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

@ScharaBill @JessicaPusser @Starlink 😂🤣😂

[John Penney @JohnPenney8084]

@JessicaPusser @Starlink How does launching 10000:satellites a year get us to multiplanetary life and prosperity for all? Just curious. You also know that you can’t breathe on Mars right?