Global dollar liquidity expanding at a 3 month annualized pace of 2.21%. However, one month is pacing 7%+ and US Money Supply (M3) rising at 9% 1M annualized. $170B in liquidity added in the past few weeks. Treasury balance at the Fed down about $100B.
@hendry_hugh Have you thought about the possibility of energy being the next big disruptive component? What if weโre on the cusp of an energy revolution where the cost of energy becomes negligible. Nuclear fusion reactors and light weight HD batteries for example.
We have a real problem.
@KeithMcCullough and I have spoke for 5 yrs on this: Governments US and China govts are spending 1.5x tax revenue. Requiring a fresh ~3trn NEW issuance/ year.
AI (expectations) are +700bn more
The first stage is starting: โu cant issue that muchโ
AND we have a jobs problem - while over-spending this much.
2 big game changers for my investing career that I personally gleaned from being a @hedgeye macro pro subscriber:
1. Minimizing a position or sector style on a trade breakdown and then taking it #out on a trend breakdown instead of staring at red on the screen and adding to it to improve my cost basisโฆ just dumb.
2. Noticing similar sets and acting on it, which might mean being patient and doing nothing until itโs glaringly obvious.
In the 12 months through Sept. 30, net interest on US public debt topped $1 trillion for the first time, more than the country spent on Medicare or defense. For every $5 the government collected in taxes, about $1 went to pay interest: CBO data https://t.co/0OvBzu2rEz
In Bank of America's latest fund manager survey, 57% of respondents said "private equity/private credit" is the most likely source of a systemic credit event, the highest conviction on the source of such a disruption since 2022.