Shower thought: Polymarket is now rolling out fees widely. And for market buys only they collect the fees in shares not USDC. So if one side disproportionately market buys, Polymarket-the-company has a stake in their own markets. Isn’t that potentially dicey?
Here are their biggest holdings. Had the shooter at the Correspondents’ Dinner yesterday been successful, Polymarket as a company would have won about $25,000 in their own prediction market!
@devjoshstevens@TheSpeculator0 Personally I would have preferred also just an earlier announcement lol. Anyway bug report: The gamma API is still reporting feesEnabled as false for these market even as fees are being charged. Also the UI isn't showing the fees.
@rgomezcram@rgomezcram you might also be interested in some of the older literature where people having been looking at something very similar under the label "Marginal Trader Hypothesis" including with data from the IEM prediction market
@PolymarketDevs As someone with like a literal million CLOB transactions, I beseech you to roll out a bit slower and maybe phased somehow. Whatever can be said of the current contracts they were at least independently audited and work in practice
@testingham Yeah and I’m super not confident ofc. I definitely feel like it’s a wild (but not like unrealistic) conditional under which to try to forecast specific economic indicators that far into the future
@testingham IIRC they had one comment box for the forecasts for all the scenarios and times but for the report sorted them by the unconditional number (which is a bit weird because it’s not really sorted by opinion of AI's impact specifically)
New feature: ROI
If a trader deposited $1,000 and turned it into $10,000 profit, that's a 1,000% ROI
Someone making $10k from $1k is way more impressive than making $10k from $100k.
9. Another way of trading shares. Now that Polymarket has fees enabled for some markets, it would be interesting to have another exchange for the exact same conditional tokens but without the fees.