Johnny Ten-Numbers

Into computer vision and crowd forecasting. PhD student and Good Judgment @superforecaster

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

I'll be at CVPR (Denver, June 3-7) and Manifest (Berkeley, June 12-14), looking forward to meeting people :)

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

@Polymarket Update: Polymarket’s V2 contracts fixed this! They now collect all their fees in pUSD so this shouldn't be an issue going forward.

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

Shower thought: Polymarket is now rolling out fees widely. And for market buys only they collect the fees in shares not USDC. So if one side disproportionately market buys, Polymarket-the-company has a stake in their own markets. Isn’t that potentially dicey?

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

Here are their biggest holdings. Had the shooter at the Correspondents’ Dinner yesterday been successful, Polymarket as a company would have won about $25,000 in their own prediction market!

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

@devjoshstevens @TheSpeculator0 Personally I would have preferred also just an earlier announcement lol. Anyway bug report: The gamma API is still reporting feesEnabled as false for these market even as fees are being charged. Also the UI isn't showing the fees.

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

@rgomezcram @rgomezcram you might also be interested in some of the older literature where people having been looking at something very similar under the label "Marginal Trader Hypothesis" including with data from the IEM prediction market

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

Also it brings me no pleasure but here is my referral link :( https://t.co/pUWRdWofc2

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

Polymarket rolling out fees

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

This seem really exciting! Forecasting workshop at ICML with talks @PTetlock, @rohanalur, @tshevl and Nicole Kagan from @KalshiResearch https://t.co/O7xuAq9ktS

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

@PolymarketDevs As someone with like a literal million CLOB transactions, I beseech you to roll out a bit slower and maybe phased somehow. Whatever can be said of the current contracts they were at least independently audited and work in practice

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

@testingham Yeah and I’m super not confident ofc. I definitely feel like it’s a wild (but not like unrealistic) conditional under which to try to forecast specific economic indicators that far into the future

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

@testingham IIRC they had one comment box for the forecasts for all the scenarios and times but for the report sorted them by the unconditional number (which is a bit weird because it’s not really sorted by opinion of AI's impact specifically)

[Prediction Market Leaderboard @predictingtop]

New feature: ROI

If a trader deposited $1,000 and turned it into $10,000 profit, that's a 1,000% ROI

Someone making $10k from $1k is way more impressive than making $10k from $100k.

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

cc @betmoardotfun @insight_predict @polymtrade @StandDOTtrade @Chance_ @fireplacegg @polyfactual @PolymarketBuild I would pay money for these

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

There's a bunch of third party trading terminals for Polymarket now. Wish list 🧵 with some more involved features I'd love:

[Johnny Ten-Numbers @JohnnyTenNums]

9. Another way of trading shares. Now that Polymarket has fees enabled for some markets, it would be interesting to have another exchange for the exact same conditional tokens but without the fees.