Johnny Trading

Doubled the Indexes Every Year I've traded. NO OPTIONS. Shares & US Stocks. DISCLAIMER: Not Financial Advice Buy and Sell at Your Own Will.
IG - Johnny Trading

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST hit the $1B revenue mark in the recent quarter rising nearly 65% YoY. The other staggering number is EBIDTA and margins. EBIDTA grew from $10M to $22M and margins to 22%.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST has added yet another partner with Dupage Credit Union for personal lending. Union lending has grown as a revenue drive as Harborstone Union has also joined recently holding nearly $3.3B in assets. Outperforming the Fintech sector while underperforming broader markets.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST has another maintained rating and price target with BTIG keeping both BUY and $43 PT.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST just entered into a $1B agreement with Eltura and Aperture Investors to support more loan purchases on the platform.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST price target cut $66 -> $51 from Mizuho.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST price target remained unchanged from Needham at $40 while they reaffirmed their BUY rating.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST has applied for a national bank charter to reduce their costs and offer better rates. They applied to the OCC and FDIC just a few days ago.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

The operating margin from $UPST has to be the second biggest winner heading into Q1. The fact that the profitability using operating margin rose more than 30% over 2 years while revenue growth remained intact. Sacrificing growth for margin expansion usually suggests phase change.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST transaction volume has been one of if not the biggest win coming into Q1 as in Q4 it rose to $3.2B and 51.6% from 2024. The difference lies in the use rate from returning customers that really drove the growth NOT costly new customer acquisitions.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST had their PT cut $56 —> $40 by Needham today.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST has their rating maintained at a Buy from Needham as many tech names experience greater than market index drawdown as geopolitical tensions and uncertainty continue.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST is under investigation from Pomerantz LLP under a potential security violation when their disclosure of underwriting issues with current model caused a miss in expectations during 2025.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST during a leadership change has secured lending expansion while not having any expected strategic changes. They also have improved transparency through month to month KPIs. Their profitability in these times will come from operating leverage rather than true growth.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST is one of those that has the right growth potential but has headwinds and sector drag all while competition gets better the longer AI is on the market. Lending getting tighter means shrink of overall revenue growth but their margins should remain stable assuming CapEx stays

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST is expected to face some headwinds to their target market of lower income low credit score lenders as the 2026 tax refund is expected to be the largest in several years. More inflow of capital to low income means less refinancing and less personal loan customers.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

Part of the reason for the software scare has been the fear of replacement from AI including financial services yet the majority of the companies do not have the algorithms to reproduce the software at scale and personalize it like software can. Survival of the fittest. $UPST

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

If you are a long term investor rather than a mid term tactical trader a software buy like $UPST or anything related to the sector is absurdly cheap. Capital has been rotating out and into industrials, dollar strength, healthcare, and especially consumer defense.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

$UPST had revenue beats in many categories including a $1.4B revenue guidance (10.1% beat), non GAAP profit of $.5/share (7.6% beat), adjusted EBIDTA of $63.69M (1.1% beat), and operating margin rose from -2.2% to 6.4% YoY.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

Relating to $UPST Several rating firms have held or raised their targets and ratings including a $20 -> $30 raise from Compass Point, maintained $20 target from Citizens, Sell -> Neutral while $44 -> $35 from Goldman Sachs, and unchanged $56 target from Needham.

[Johnny Trading @JohnnyTrading20]

Part of $UPSTs guidance disappointment is the growth of low margin products while the stalling of growth in high margin items. Auto loans and home equity are the major two low margin offerings that had major growth in volume but little bottom line impact.