John's Ladder

aiming up

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@minordissent I agree with everything you're saying but the reformation produced the scientific revolution/enlightenment after all. It's not clear they would've happened otherwise. Would it be worth exchanging say, the scientific method, for our pre-reformation status-quo?

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@littlebigfis Totally. With US large cap valuations so stretched, 5-10yr expected returns for ex-US equity, bonds and commodities look especially attractive. I worry for those who lack diversification. Hopefully we can all win. Simple risk parity + trend looks like a great combo going forward

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@Eljon_Rrodhe @PeterMallouk Neither ragebaiting nor explicitly disagreeing. Can US trend to 100%/EX-US to 0% of wrld mktcap forever? At what point is "US-exceptionalism-premium" priced in such that there isn't room left for multiples to expand on a relative basis? Keep in mind US is only 25% of wrld GDP

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@Eljon_Rrodhe @PeterMallouk Ok, I'll bite. How does one determine the SP500 is the ideal level of diversification? With the same reasoning I could look at the SP500 since 2011 (15 years of data lmao) and say wow the MAG7 has done great, why diversify into these 493 other "low-quality" firms?

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@Eljon_Rrodhe @PeterMallouk You criticize OP for "throwing out a random time frame" and then proceed to do exactly the same thing. Imagine saying that about Japan in 1989 before going from 40% to 5% of the world's stock market cap. Diversification is the only free lunch in investing.

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@Willrandship @robprogressive Mostly agree. I had a liability-only-shitbox for 6 yrs until a family member handed-me-down a newer car which necessitated full coverage. Not 6 mos later, I was in a bad enough car accident that I simply may have died had I been in the shitbox. So, shitbox needs a lower bound

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@HertzyTrades Short volatility strategy works when GDP is growing and equities exhibit negative autocorrelation, but consider the utter destruction of capital resulting from a period of recession/deflation, followed by reflation. Lose slightly less on way down, then miss gains on way back up

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@wolftivy Doesn't account for efficiency gains? Specifically in semiconductors. Graph flattens when US economy transitioned from world of atoms to world of bits. Although I agree with your premise

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@growing_daniel The reformation produced the scientific revolution and the enlightenment. There are plenty of convincing arguments against the reformation, but none worth giving up the scientific method for. Just to provide one example. We gained far more than anything you could say we lost

[John's Ladder @johnsladder]

@oldestasian Is lack of internal monologue indicative of inability to produce signal or receive signal? If one can't produce signal then fair enough, they're susceptible. No shortage of slop. If one can't receive signal then any monologue is rejected. Perhaps they have the best defense of all