Jon Woods

FFToday | FantasyNow+ | Versus: DFS Showdown

Process over hype. Rankings, waivers, and weekly roles.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@FantasyTender I don’t buy that. BTJ is playing 42% of the snaps this year and just 37% last week. Parker is at 75% and 81%, with 23 targets to BTJ’s 12.

Parker’s producing because Jacksonville is actually featuring him, not because BTJ is dragging CB1 coverage around.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

I’m building TNF around Cleveland tonight.

Judkins at CPT, then Watson, Fannin, Denzel Boston and Browns D/ST.

Judkins has 88% of CLE carries the last two weeks, Watson is at 5 TD/1 INT, and Fannin has a 22% target share.

The usage is there. I’m leaning into it.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@SuperrNova38 Justin Herbert at QB28 sounds crazy until you look at what he’s actually done.

0 top-12 finishes.
209 pass yards/game.
3 TD, 4 INT.
59.1% completions.
73.4 passer rating.
11.3 fantasy PPG.

At some point the name can’t keep carrying the ranking.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

Don’t get too crazy with Woody Marks yet.

Houston’s run game has been bad across the board, and Montgomery is still getting the bulk of the work. Marks has been more efficient after contact, but 22 carries is still a tiny sample.

Stash him, sure. Just don’t spend like the backfield has already flipped.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

Carnell Tate has a Cam Ward problem.

25% target share. 39.2% of the air yards. 84% of the snaps. The usage is there.

Ward is at 5.7 YPA, -0.07 EPA/play and only a 6.5% deep-attempt rate behind a line PFF has graded top three in pass protection.

Hard to ask for much more from Tate’s role. He needs better QB play.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@FAmmiranteTFJ Substation pov:

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@UnderdogNFL MHJ may actually be cooked. He’s run 110 routes through three games and has 9 targets: 8.2% TPRR, 0.66 YPRR and a 52.1 PFF receiving grade.

I’ve blamed the scheme plenty, but a 24-year-old former No. 4 pick drawing a Day 3 valuation from another team is a brutal signal.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

A.J. Barner is starting to look like one of those TE adds where the box score finally caught up to the role.

He’s played 80%+ of Seattle’s snaps every week, ran 76 routes through three games, second on the team behind JSN, and just turned nine targets into 5/69.

Arroyo has one target all year.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@SleeperTBBUCS @LogansTwitty @SleeperNFL Ball is too high for an empty-field practice rep. But they did like him in camp, and there’s at least some chemistry there with Egbuka.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@BigDraftersHQ BTJ isn’t even disappointing in an interesting way anymore.

13 targets, 7 catches, 88 yards through three games. His snap share is down to 42%, and Josh Cameron just matched him at 23 snaps while Washington and Meyers played 50 each.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@KurtBenkert I don’t think it was dirty. Hurts was a runner at that point, fighting for the first down, and the defender made a football play.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@UnderdogNFL @JesseSBSN I wish he would've landed in a more open backfield. Love the player, hate the opportunity right now. The talent is there, but the path to consistent touches is still pretty crowded.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

Week 4 waivers are live.

Kalif Raymond is forcing his way into the conversation, Kenyon Sadiq looks like a real breakout, and we hit the RB situations worth watching.

Full FN+ Waiver Show:
https://t.co/qSHqVc90CB

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@espn Kalif Raymond being Chicago’s WR1 started as a joke, but the metrics are getting uncomfortable.

4.77 yards of separation.
2.25 YPRR.
Targeted on 26% of his routes.

Ben Johnson is scheming him touches, but Raymond is actually winning them too.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

Full Week 4 Touch Transfer:
⁠https://t.co/LOdgE80ujj

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

Achane’s injury changed the entire Week 4 waiver board.

Ollie Gordon is the priority. I’ll go as high as $56 of a $200 FAAB budget. Kenyon Sadiq is next, Braelon Allen depends on Breece Hall, and I’m not panicking on Gadsden yet.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

@SleeperNFL Between the goal-line stop last week and whatever the hell that call was, the NFL really hates to see Baltimore on top.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

I’m launching VERSUS tonight with ATL vs. GB.

I build my card, explain the process, and everyone else gets a shot to beat me in the same Splash contest.

We’ll also pick one entrant to hop on our YouTube show Monday morning and run through the contest with us.

Think you can beat me?

Join here:
https://t.co/buKblWPVSU

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

Thursday Night DFS Locks:

Love is averaging 35.5 attempts, while Green Bay’s run game has been ugly. Golden already has 18 targets for 153 yards and now gets Atlanta without A.J. Terrell. The Falcons have also allowed three TDs to tight ends through two games.

On the other side, Bijan already has 37 carries, and Penix is making his first start back from the ACL. I’m betting Atlanta keeps the ball in Bijan’s hands and Green Bay has to throw.

[Jon Woods @JonWoodsFF]

Team A.

Skat’s been right around a 60% snap share through two weeks. Kyren has 23 carries to Corum’s 22, so both backfields are committees.

Golden has the better ceiling case too: 18 targets, 153 yards, 25% target share and 33% air-yard share vs. Shakir’s 12 targets, 88 yards, 21% target share and 21% air-yard share.