Jonathan Kinlay

Dr Jonathan Kinlay is the founder of Systematic Strategies, a quantitative #hedgefund and 3D design & prototyping #incubator Innovation Factory

[Jonathan Kinlay @JonathanKinlay]

@Kasparov63 Like the Dragon Sicilian.

[Jonathan Kinlay @JonathanKinlay]

Over to you, @elonmusk
https://t.co/ko2GGTyMxY

[Jonathan Kinlay @JonathanKinlay]

I am not sure that’s right.

Can Structured Externalization Improve Transformer Reasoning?

Σ (Sigma): A Structured Intermediate Representation for Machine Reasoning

Author: Jonathan Kinlay, Head of Quantitative Analysis, CMC Markets plc
Date: March 2026
Abstract

This paper presents Σ (Sigma), a structured intermediate representation for reasoning-heavy transformer computation. Σ is not proposed as a replacement for natural language, but as an explicit internal representation that externalises type, scope, reference, modality, event structure, and selected redundancy mechanisms so that these need not be inferred implicitly from surface text. The paper combines three elements in a single document: a formal representational proposal, a falsifiable experimental programme, and a constrained recursive revision framework in which the representation and its compiler may co-evolve.

The central hypothesis is that, for a fixed transformer architecture and compute budget, explicit representational structure can improve compositional generalisation, calibration, and long-chain reasoning, provided the overhead introduced by the representation does not exceed the resulting capacity gains. The document therefore treats Σ not as a privileged ontology or finished language, but as a candidate scaffold subject to empirical rejection.

This is a pre-empirical paper. It does not report pilot results. Its contribution is instead to specify the representation precisely enough that it can be falsified, to define strong structured baselines and matched-budget evaluation conditions, and to make explicit the hardest engineering bottleneck in the programme: the NL→Σ compiler. The proposed experiments therefore test two progressively stronger claims: first, whether structured externalisation helps when Σ is instantiated correctly in constrained domains; second, whether a realistic compiler can recover enough of that structure from natural language for the end-to-end pipeline to remain useful.

Accordingly, the strongest claim of the paper is methodological rather than evidential. It offers a fielded IR, a parser/typing discipline, a compiler-centric evaluation framework, and a staged revision protocol that makes the proposal testable. It does not claim that Σ already outperforms natural language or lighter structured alternatives, nor that open-domain NL→Σ compilation is presently solved.

[Jonathan Kinlay @JonathanKinlay]

@PontistGirl and battery.

[Jonathan Kinlay @JonathanKinlay]

Can GARCH models reveal hidden structure in volatility across asset classes?

New analysis: fitted GARCH & EGARCH to SPY, TLT, GLD, USO, and BTC over 10 years. Key finding — gold's leverage effect runs *opposite* to equities.

Full results + Python code:
https://t.co/TME2xUXi9Z

#MachineLearning #QuantFinance #GARCH

[Jonathan Kinlay @JonathanKinlay]

Why is Hillary Clinton now in Star Treck?

[Suffragent @Suffragent_]

Good grief! @DavidLammy's demeanour at the despatch box is like something from Jerry Springer.

Uncontrolled, vulgar, ghetto. The first black Deputy PM is doing nothing to counter negative stereotypes!🇬🇧

[LivePDDave 🇺🇸 @LivePDDave1]

DEVELOPING: Crooked Fed Governor Lisa Cook—Sloppy Joe Biden's hand-picked affirmative action disaster—is neck-deep in a mortgage fraud firestorm that would've put any working American in cuffs already. This hypocrite pulled the same sleazy double-dip scam as Shifty Adam Schiff and My 600-lb Life reject Letitia James: swearing under penalty of law that her Michigan house was her "primary residence" to lock in dirt-cheap 3% rates and tax perks, then flipping around just weeks later to claim the exact same thing on a Georgia property she never even lived in—while quietly hiding rental income from her Fed disclosures. That's not a mistake, it's bank fraud, wire fraud, perjury—straight-up felonies that carry decades in prison. And yet there she sits at the Fed, wagging her finger about "ethics" and "inclusion." This morning President Trump torched her on Truth Social with: "Cook must resign, now!!!"—and he's dead right. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte has already dropped a criminal referral onto the DOJ's desk—just as he did with Pencil Neck Schiff and Letitia James, both of which resulted in grand juries. If precedent holds, Cook can expect to see her scam brought before a grand jury any day now.

[Jonathan Kinlay @JonathanKinlay]

@EconoMind__ Great factor research