Jonathan

[Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 @jacksonhinkle]

📍NEW: World oil reserves are falling at a RECORD pace.

[MARMOT @Web3Marmot]

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING VERY BAD IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!!

The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs.

Nvidia is leading the charge.

But almost nobody is paying attention to the real problem.

A huge AI bubble is inflating at incredible speed and about to pop.

This has happened before.

2000: Cisco was the "god of the internet" with routers, switches, infrastructure.

The stock crashed 90% and never fully recovered.

Today: Nvidia is the "god of AI" with chips, data centers, infrastructure.

Same role. Same script. But the risk is much bigger.

Let me explain why.

This time, concentration is extreme. The "Magnificent 7" make up 30% of the S&P 500. If AI falls, the whole index falls.

Big Tech CapEx is exploding. $650 billion only in 2026.

But where is the ROI? Nobody knows.

If Google and Microsoft don't show real profits, they will cut orders.

Then Nvidia collapses. Then the whole index follows.

Japan, holding trillions in U.S. Treasuries, is about to hike rates.

When they sell, global liquidity evaporates.

Risk assets get crushed first.

This is not 2000.

This is 2000 with leverage, concentration, and a liquidity shock loading.

For the record, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the $111K top in October.

Turn on notifications. When the AI bubble bursts, I'll call it here publicly, like I always do.

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Dario Amodei - VD för anthropic.

”We are gonna automate what 50% of white collar job does in the next 5 years”

Hur ser vi på ekonomin. Jag ser en framtida efterfråganschock. Som leder till en arbetslöshets spiral.

[Fredrik Hjelm 🇸🇪 @FredrikHjelm4]

The most underrated economy in the Western world right now is Sweden.

I’m not being patriotic, I’m looking at the numbers.

GDP growth forecast for 2026: 2.7%. That’s ahead of the US, the entire Euro area, UK, France, and Germany. Not by a little.

Government debt at 34.8% of GDP. The Euro area sits at 88.5%. The US is at 125%. We have fiscal room that most Western governments would kill for.

Budget deficit at -2.4%, the tightest in the peer group. France and the UK are running -5.5%. The US is at -7%. And Sweden’s deficit is partly Spring Budget expansion from a low-debt base, not structural weakness.

Inflation at 1.6%, below the Riksbank’s 2% target. Core ex-energy is around 1.1%. The Riksbank is paused at 1.75%, one of the lowest policy rates in the developed world.

I know the political conversation in Sweden often feels like everything is broken. Some things genuinely are.

And part of it is that media has a Sweden story it likes (crime gang rape!!!) and this doesn’t fit it.

But the macroeconomic position? It’s strong. Stronger than almost anyone in our peer group.

The uncomfortable question is what we actually do with that position. Because fiscal space only matters if someone uses it.

I would hit the gas, and let Sweden build and thrive.

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

A central banker's nightmare: inflationary pressure plus job destruction.

[Barchart @Barchart]

S&P 500 Shiller PE Ratio soars above 40 for only the 2nd time in history 🚨 The other time was the Dot Com Bubble 🤯😱 Probably Fine, Carry On 🫡

[optionGeek ✨ @StockShark16]

When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026.

Every time rate cuts begin near market peaks, the aftermath has been very bad.

Historically, the pattern is unmistakable:

– Rate cuts in Sep 2007 → disaster followed

– Rate cuts in July 2019 → sharp sell-off in Aug 2019

– Rate cuts in Sep 2024 → 4 months later, Market nose dived from Feb 2025.

_ Rate cut resumes in Sep 2025 - 3 to 4 months later?

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Aktier förväntas nu ge lägra avkastning än den riskfria räntan. Historiskt har det alltid korrigerats genom en kombination av fallande aktiemarknad/ökade priser på stadsobligationer

[Barchart @Barchart]

S&P 500 free cash flow yield has fallen to 2.58%, the lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis 🚨🚨🚨

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Med ökade geopolitiska risker och handelsrisker tar vi på onsdagen efter räntesänkning hos FED nya ath.

Citerar Jamie Patton - ”It’s fair to say that you’ve never been paid less to take risk,”

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is unprecedented:

Core CPI inflation is back above +3% and PPI inflation is at its hottest since March 2022.

Meanwhile, President Trump is calling for a 300 BASIS POINT rate cut and is set to replace Fed Chair Powell.

Are you ready for what's next?

(a thread)

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Grafen visar en kombinerad värderingsindikator som sammanställer flera nyckeltal som P/E, CAPE, P/B, EV/EBITDA, Q-ratio och marknadsvärde i förhållande till BNP till ett enda mått. Detta fångar den sammanlagda övervärderingen på aktiemarknaden över tid

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Vill öka några innehav men känner mig någorlunda osäker kring framtida avkastning på börsen..

Elliotwave publicerade en aggregerad multipelvärdering i percentilform över tid. Ser smått oroväckande ut. Speciellt i rådande världsläge.

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Detta är något jag sagt sedan slutet på 2024 och då kunnat hedga mot denna kraftiga nedgång samtidigt som jag har möjlighet att köpa in mig på bättre nivåer

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Tullar är inte orsaken. Marknaden krashar inte bara för trumps tullar. Visst kan det vara en del av anledningen men vi har större problem i dagens marknad.

Längsta omvända yield kurvan under 2022 till 2024. Även buffert indikatorn som visar att marknaden är extremt övervärderad.

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

@Engbl0m Se där! Nån börjar lära sig om värdering och att det faktiskt spelar roll..

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

@Engbl0m Vilken nivå lyckades du sälja av tesla då..?

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Personligen tycker jag fortfarande marknaden är dyr. Hade rätt i mitt antagande om nedgång. Däremot tror jag de finns mer ned sida kvar. Dock några nivåer som bör fyllas mot uppsidan för att sedan skapa ett verkligt equilibrium.

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

@jimmylang92 @Engbl0m Jo. Men som sagt. Lite förnuft måste man ha..

[Jonathan @JonathanTrnell1]

Det oundvikliga usa retracement som kommit påverkas nu av oroligheter på marknaden. Då främst av tullar och DOGE.

Om tullarna blir mer aggresiva och DOGE fortsätter avskeda folk. Kommer vi förmodligen se en stark recession. Möjligtvis en krash. Kortsiktigt kan vi nog se uppgång