Jones Chu

seasoned private banker, CFO and value investor.

[iPaul @iPaulCanada]

当年孙宇晨花了四百多万美元请巴菲特老爷子吃了顿饭，改变了老爷子的两个观念：
一是不再办收费午餐（因为被收割了），
二是对比特币产生了巨大的反感，数次公开质疑比特币。
老爷子还有一句名言：“你无法与一个坏人达成一笔好生意”（You can't make a good deal with a bad person）。

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@DonDurrett @FahadThoughts97 @HycroftMining Agreed and thank you, Don

[Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc]

Paul Tudor Jones in an Interview with Patrick Oshaughnessy sums up and connects the valuation pieces of the overall market well:

“We’re 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let’s say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we’re over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it’s about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We’re so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That’s what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that’s because that’s an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market’s really high and it’s gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view.”

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@davidbateman @KingKong9888 If he asked his clients to increase gold holdings to 100%, his funds have to be liquidated and go out of business.

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@NorthstarCharts Let’s reach the first target first, then we talk about the next one 🤔

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@michaeljburry These PE firms are devils.

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@DowdEdward I thought you are talking about the market 🤣

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@Arden_2210 4

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@its_mizuko_ 360

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@KingKong9888 @BcarmB I remembered your warning, thank you

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@BettyBVel @carm1nee Yeah, time will tell who is right but most of the time, the old fellows are right

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

Well said! Druckenmiller taught me a lot about investing.

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@DonDurrett You are damn right🙂

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@KingKong9888 揼春🤣

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@DonDurrett You are the grand master here and did tons of research in this field. I’m still a student, can’t comment on your questions. 🤫

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@sunilgurjar01 Japanese Yen also is a scam. Only physical #gold and #silver are real money.

[墓碑科技 @mubeitech]

1980年，新加坡航空飞行员联合罢工。
李光耀把带头人叫到跟前，直接亮出底牌。
没有谈判，没有妥协，只有两道路。

第一条路，立刻回去工作，恢复纪律。
第二条路，继续闹下去。
如果选第二条，他将动用一切手段反击。
哪怕让所有飞机彻底停飞。
哪怕解雇所有人，从零开始重建整个航司。

飞行员们退出去商量了整整65分钟。
最后全部认怂复工。
凭什么？
因为他们清楚李光耀是认真的。
没有他们，新加坡照样运转。

治理国家从来不是在牌桌上虚张声势。
面对利益集团的要挟，退让一次就会满盘皆输。
李光耀倾尽一生心血建立的底线，绝不允许任何人拿捏。
这种绝不向要挟者低头的硬骨头，正是今天西方政客全部丧失的东西。

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@DataCenterTOG @outsanest @DaveHcontrarian @StefanFaelschle @limitless74_ @Dagnoncap @theandymillette Simple, real estate are overpriced and oversupplied everywhere. The price must fall. You can build more homes but you can’t just dig more gold & silver out from the ground.

[Jones Chu @JonesChu700]

@DaveHcontrarian @theandymillette Thank you 🙏