Jono Bayes

Melbourne. Pictures for markets.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@artwithinpod its hubris, not stupidity.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@Rory_Johnston the irony of hegseths 'combat ineffective' remark....

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt close?

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@ChrisEconomist this country couldnt even give first nations a symbolic voice to parliament. the undercurrent is one of selfishness.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@DannyDayan5 u r better at this than me, but i thibk liquidity is tightening (ccc's & real rates). the eco is outgrowing capital available (priv credit issues, fiscal crowding out, oil impost). & fxd inc has sniffed it out, but its summer & equity guys are always eps fixated so slow to react

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@simon_ree highest shiller p/e in history and real rates through the roof means we de-rate into the earnings

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@PharmD_KS yes. and bullish equity traders MUST at least be cognizant of that bonds are doing now. And it isnt helpful.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@Ruycorto i agree it looks oversold. This is the sector vs ASX200 + spodumene overlaid. I got a million charts like this that all say the same thing - that the stocks are pricing in $1750-1800/t spodumene.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@cena17thszn Sean again proving he's a wee bit 1-dimensional.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@Kacper_PK_CH agree. this is my favourite using M2 and GDP. It measures excess liquidity, which supposedly drives Gold. That excess liquidity has been unwinding for 3-4yrs now post COVID as the economy kicks into gear.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@LithiumIonBull @CarlCapolingua been watching these for a week or so now too and this is my picture that speaks to the disconnect (i landed with valuations reflecting more like $1800 if u use the last 2yrs relationships). See here.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@LukeyTrags big divergence. gap should close

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@GraphCall dude, im a LT gold bull. but my time frame is shorter than yours clearly. right now, until real rates fall, imo only, it isnt going up. the whole of X is calling for it up. Adam R on Cem's podcast said as much. once the pain needed for the stimulus hits, itll go up, not b4 imo.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@GraphCall lol. thats alot of ups and downs in the interim. i wasnt being narky. was just making the point the bull case was fluffy. carry on.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@taketheLearly not true. the end of the BG2 podcast a month ago they both said they were 1/3rd to 50% of previous size. both articulated that. was a cracking tell.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@Kacper_PK_CH gold names all due FCF downgrades to consensus also.

[Jono Bayes @JonoBayes]

@Dcpcooks question here. but isn't the fact that Warsh has decided to let the mkt call policy now a point of self-regulation? in other words, he might be talking dovish, but the 'bond vigilantes' are holding his feet to the fire with this hawkish tilt precisely to stop any overt dovishness