AJ Francia

writer, cook, numbers guy

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

The duality of prediction markets

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

check out https://t.co/duTSldn4iM for other weird prediction market quirks

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

So.. markets are saying there's a 10% chance of George Santos getting pardoned? Seems too high imo.. What's even the political benefit for the administration doing this

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@jmhorp this is what happens when there aren't enough advertisers in a social media ads marketplace - the ads auction has no choice but to show you the same ad over and over again. probably a result of the advertiser exodus if i had to guess

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@Noahpinion, thoughts on how casinos impact the local economy? there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus amongst economists

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@VitalikButerin Prediction markets may also be muddled by people betting on an outcome they don’t want to happen in order to emotionally hedge... may explain why Trump shares on prediction markets are being bid up relative to stats models

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

This is...not good

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@paulg Trump’s odds on betting markets may be inflated because of people buying up Trump shares for hedging purposes. 538’s model, meanwhile, isn’t affected by people buying insurance on a Trump victory

[Shardul @shardulgo]

Why TikTok duets are the future of music 🎶

A quick thread (w/ videos) 👇🏽

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@stan_okl Thanks!

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@stan_okl Mind sharing the paper / study on this?

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

For some context, I'm seeing a pretty wide gap between what prediction markets and polls are saying about the 2020 prez election. Wondering how much we can trust prediction markets given the impact of emotional hedging

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

Is prediction market accuracy distorted by emotional hedging? Say we have 2 outcomes (A, B) but A has significant negative externalities on society. I'd expect A to be overvalued in prediction markets b/c of ppl hedging against that outcome. Thoughts @tylercowen, @Noahpinion?

[Michelle Tandler @michelletandler]

SF's wealthy must step up as leaders to help solve our city's problems.

To expect that SF Gov can handle the influx of dilemmas is pure fantasy.

(1/x)

https://t.co/KdCAPnaufl

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@daniela_witten @zoom_us @daniela_witten, i had a couple Zoom calls two days ago and noticed this exact same issue!

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@nicholasmaustin @Noahpinion Maybe the bill never comes! 🤔

[Jeremy Horpedahl 🥚📉 @jmhorp]

The 2020 political divide

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@Noahpinion Ah, this makes a whole lot of sense now! Ty sir 🙏

[AJ Francia @JosephAndrewFr2]

@Sly08930562 @Noahpinion Definitely, more unequal than the U.S. even. Thing is, I would have expected the wealthier elements in Singapore to bid up the price of street food though, similar to what's happened in SF. Really hard to find a burrito in SF for under $9 these days