JoeMoran

CEO - M3 Miner Repair

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Being the best is comforting until someone changes the room. Of today's reporters, 5 of 6 beat the money supply since COVID, but 0 of 6 beat bitcoin issuance. $TMO led in dollars at +14% a year; in bitcoin, its best is −19%.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

$JNJ CY26 Q3, priced in bitcoin

Revenue: ₿360,260 = 1.7% of the 21M cap
YoY: +72% in BTC, +6% in USD (avg BTC $71k vs $114k)
Net income: ₿2,979 (−93%)
EPS: 128 sats/share

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

A sprint always looks more impressive than the walk before it. Texas Instruments ($TXN) made $6.1B, +28% on a year ago. Since COVID: +6.8% a year in dollars, barely ahead of the money supply, and −24% a year in bitcoin.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Good news tends to be announced in whichever currency suits it best. Meta ($META) took in $64.6B, +26% on a year ago, and beat expectations.

Since COVID, per year: +7.8% in dollars, −25% in bitcoin.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Bitcoin's past self turns out to have wildly inconsistent standards.

Does the start date matter? Same test, three anchors:

GFC (2007): beat M2 54/59
COVID (2019): beat M2 67/78, beat bitcoin 3/78
2022 rate shock (2021): beat M2 68/81, beat bitcoin 29/81

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Marking your own homework tends to produce good grades. Since COVID, 67 of 78 big companies beat growth in the money supply, and 62 of 78 beat federal debt. Against bitcoin's issuance: 3 of 78. Closest in bitcoin: $MU, +11%/yr.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Shareholder return = cash-flow yield + per-share growth. In dollars | in bitcoin, per year:

$AMD +60% | +9.4%
MU +55% | +11%
GM +39% | +3.8%
CMCSA +35% | +0.4%
CRM +33% | −4.8%
INTU +32% | −4.3%
ANET +32% | −9.1%
ADBE +31% | −5.6%

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Flip: $GM's shareholder return since COVID now outgrows bitcoin's supply.

In bitcoin terms: +3.8% a year
Bitcoin's supply: +1.8% a year
In dollars: +39% a year

For once, the bitcoin chart has to look up.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Forecasts are written in the currency analysts are paid in, which is convenient.

$META needs $92.8B of revenue this quarter to match Q3 '22 in bitcoin terms. The Street expects $63.3B.

Clearing that would take a rather tired bitcoin.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Impressing your former self now requires a rather larger quarter.

$LRCX reports today after the close

Shareholder return per year since COVID (2019 base):
In dollars: +21% ✓ vs M2 +6.6%
In bitcoin: −17% ✗ vs issuance +1.8%

Revenue to match Q3 '22 in BTC: $16.9B

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Today after the close: 5 reports

Shareholder return per year since COVID, in dollars (vs M2 +6.6%) | in bitcoin (vs issuance +1.8%):

$META +15% ✓ | −22% ✗
TSLA +24% ✓ | −18% ✗
LRCX +21% ✓ | −17% ✗
TXN +1.4% ✗ | −30% ✗
IBM +7.1% ✓ | −25% ✗

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Risk, it turns out, is whatever currency you weren't counting in.

$TSLA reports today after the close

Shareholder return per year since COVID (2019 base):
In dollars: +24% ✓ vs M2 +6.6%
In bitcoin: −18% ✗ vs issuance +1.8%

Revenue to match Q3 '22 in BTC: $71.9B

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Tomorrow before the open: 6 reports

Shareholder return per year since COVID, in dollars (vs M2 +6.6%) | in bitcoin (vs issuance +1.8%):

$PM +9.2% ✓ | −24% ✗
TMO +14% ✓ | −22% ✗
ABT +14% ✓ | −21% ✗
T +3.8% ✗ | −26% ✗
DHR +12% ✓ | −23% ✗
+1 more

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Anchoring is judging today by whichever number we met first. General Motors ($GM) took in $50.0B, +2.9% on a year ago.

In bitcoin, the anchor decides: +66% on a year ago, −64% on four years ago.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Corporate language can make almost any result sound resilient. Four reported today. Since COVID, 2 of 4 outgrew the money supply and 0 of 4 outgrew bitcoin's issuance.

$COF leads in dollars at +15% a year. It also leads in bitcoin, at −16%.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Beating a benchmark is easier in its bad year, a detail acceptance speeches tend to omit.

Communication stocks beat bitcoin: 6 of 8 (bitcoin −25% in dollars).

$GOOGL +81% in bitcoin. NFLX −23%, which takes effort against a falling opponent.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Dull rules attract little admiration, which is probably how they survive.

Past twelve months: federal debt +9.0%, money supply +5.7%, consumer prices +3.7%, bitcoin supply +0.8%.

The slowest line is the only one nobody needed a meeting to approve.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Printer Check

Over the last twelve months, which of these grew fastest?

No googling. Your gut is the dataset.

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

Prosperity is relative, especially to a currency that keeps quietly redecorating.

Today after the close: 3 reports

Shareholder return per year since COVID, in dollars (vs M2 +6.6%) | in bitcoin (vs issuance +1.8%):

$ISRG +19% ✓ | −18% ✗
COF +15% ✓ | −19% ✗

[JoeMoran @JosephMoranP]

The consensus estimate is a forecast. The bitcoin bar is a reminder.

Tomorrow before the open: 4 reports

Shareholder return per year since COVID, in dollars (vs M2 +6.6%) | in bitcoin (vs issuance +1.8%):

$GE +6.8% ✓ | −26% ✗
RTX +14% ✓ | −21% ✗
MMM +1.7% ✗ | −30% ✗