Joseph Invests

Founder | Equity research, valuation & market analysis | Holdings: $IREN $ZETA $SOFI $CELH $AMD | Not financial advice

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

My top stocks for the next few years

$ZETA: $19>100+
$SOFI: $18>$90+
$CELH: $29>$150+
$IREN: $45>$200+
$META: $550>$2000+
$HIMS:$33>$120+

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@Edge_Bolt hahaha

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

How is $NBIS so asset light when they are going to spend 45 B in capex next year then have 20 B+ of depreciation in 2028?
While only making 12-13 B in revenue next year and around 25 B of revenue in 2028?
Where is the funding going to come from?
Asset light does not have to take out 10's of billions of debt

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@rreddi yes but it is very very hard to with fiscal year changing, will eventually do that tho

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

FORECASTS SAY: 80% of independent neocloud providers will cease independent operations by 2030
$IREN, $NBIS, and $CRWV ARE 3 of the TOP neoclouds right now
I AMPREDICTING ONLY 1.5/3 HAVE INDEPENDENT OPERATIONS IN 2030

HERE ARE MY PROJECTIONS
Which one of these 3 is your winner?

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@RTNovak I am modeling that with the overall debt at 8.25%

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@tigster92 @PlantInvestor16 @grok the only part we are behind is the bet that will be on our balance sheets

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

Hey @grok
If $NBIS makes 12-13 B of revenue like guided for in 2027 assuming 55% ebitda margins which are higher than what they are getting today and 4% higher than $CRWV
Spends 27 Billion of capex in 2026 + 5 Billion of capex in previous years at 70% GPU at 5 year depreciation cycle and 30% at infrastructure 15 year depreciation cycle.
Then they spend 45 B of capex in 2027 at the same rate and the capex is equally weighted throughout the year so 11.25 Billion a quarter through the year on that same depreciation schedule?

Would they even be EBIT positive in 2027?

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@hm_emememem staying alive is all that matters so they can sign strong contracts

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@GlobalCollapse haha they sold $NBIS

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@hm_emememem Gotta run the numbers

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@rreddi That is true but remember $IREN’s fiscal year ends June 30.
Their Q4 is the average companies Q2

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@0xJokerFrog haha

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

$NBIS bulls realizing they were at fault for less $MSFT capex due to their delays after blaming it on $IREN

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@CharlesG_5410 @TheRonnieVShow my guy

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@QualCompounders @grok that would be insanity $AMD might go up 50% off that

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@TheRonnieVShow Fintech and nuclear

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@jusmyopinionofc @grok $CRWV is really the one in trouble $NBIS can make it thru. But the more Neo clouds who need to raise capital the harder it is for others

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@GyujinAAIG They are looking right thru net income negative next 2 years bc of depreciation from the absurd capex

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@PlantInvestor16 @grok They* acquired them

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@PlantInvestor16 @grok Mirantis the acquired. In my opinion though gotta make it thru the next 3-5 years to make it long term though. Winner of thru these years will have a great software stack whether they have it rn or acquire it

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@1MillionSprint @grok And $IREN is doing the same with way more capacity to sign at better deals with less capex

[Joseph Invests @Joseph_Invests]

@PlantInvestor16 @grok $IREN is basically the business model $NBIS is pivoting to right now. So they are way ahead with way more capacity to sign at better pricing and bigger prepayment. I agree I am not sure why they are guiding for that.