Josh Mackenzie-Lawrie 🇬🇧

Political and media consultant.

All views my own.

[Danny Kruger @danny__kruger]

The hypocrisy over Reform's comments on the Henry Nowak murder is nauseating. Labour & LibDem MPs (and a bunch of confused Tories trying to have it both ways) are hyperventilating that Nigel said he feels 'rage' about the two-tier policing on display, as if reflecting public anger is somehow illegitimate; meanwhile they are doing exactly what they accuse us of, namely using the tragedy to score political points.

Reform is doing what politicians should - pointing out how an individual situation reflects a general problem, and making suggestions to meet it. Our opponents all did exactly that (including proclaiming their anger, rage etc - no 'calm', 'be responsible' guff then) over George Floyd, a case rather beyond our jurisdiction - when it's a British boy saying 'I can't breathe' as he lies dying on a British street, it's an occasion to attack Nigel Farage and talk about police racism.

This is why the British Left has lost the people. If the government continues to be run by the agents of mass migration and the instigators of two-tier policing we will have a REAL far-right revolt, and that will not be pretty.

[Rupert Lowe MP @RupertLowe10]

I want the world to hear what we heard.

[Robert Jenrick @RobertJenrick]

WARNING: Incredibly distressing footage.

The bodycam footage has finally been released of Henry Nowak’s last moments.

He was the victim, but treated like a criminal.

“I can’t breathe” he says, over and over again.

Instead of helping him the police arrest him on false charges of racism.

Harrowing.

It’s hard to escape the conclusion he was treated differently because he was white.

[Dan Neidle @DanNeidle]

Zack Polanski and his partner called their narrowboat their “amazing home” for three years. He registered to vote there.

If it was his main residence, council tax was due. None was paid.

His team says he stayed there only “occasionally” - if true, there's a very big problem.

[Metropolitan Police @metpoliceuk]

“Apprehending violent and dangerous criminals is a full contact and messy task which may appear shocking to observers with little experience of policing in the real world.”

Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley writes to Zack Polanski.

[Louis Mosley @louismosley]

@ZackPolanski - this is magnificent. Three things I can’t deny:

1. It is a video.
2. You are wearing a jacket.
3. Then you aren’t.
4. Then you are again.

Unfortunately that’s where the accuracy ends.

A few corrections for you:

Peter Thiel is not our CEO. Alex Karp is — and has been for 20+ years. (A lifelong Democrat, for anyone keeping score.)

We are not a “spyware company.” Spyware is malware. Malware is illegal. Calling a software company spyware is, technically, defamatory (don’t worry, we are not suing).

We don’t build surveillance technology. We build software that helps organisations make sense of data they already hold. Not the same thing.

There was no “private tour” of our HQ. There was a public photocall to which the media came. Hence, why there are so many pictures of the event.

Our MOD contract is not “the biggest defence contract in UK history.” Ajax armoured vehicles = £5.5bn. Dreadnought submarines = £31bn. We’re grateful for the work, but let’s keep a sense of scale.

We have no more access to NHS data than Microsoft has to the contents of your Word documents. I think you know this by now.

We don’t have access to patient medical records. Same story.

I agree that “nothing matters more than our health.” Which makes it worth reminding you of what Palantir’s software is actually doing in the NHS right now:

->110,000 additional operations
->15% fewer delayed hospital discharges
->7% more patients finding out within 28 days whether they have cancer

Respect again for what you did with that jacket.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: The "lines to take" script given to Labour MPs for Keir Starmer's statement has been leaked

[@breeallegretti]

[Sam Coates Sky @SamCoatesSky]

🔥NEW - buried in the bundle of documents from the Humble Address

Keir Starmer was advised by the cabinet secretary Simon Case to do security clearance BEFORE appointment but ignored the suggestion.

Case said (If you want a political appointment) "you should give us the name of the person you would like to appoint and we will develop a plan for them to acquire the necessary security clearances and do due diligence on any potential Conflicts of Interest or other issues of which you should be aware *before* confirming you choice"

Which feels quite material .....

[David Maddox @DavidPBMaddox]

I don't normally publish conversations with Downing Street but this was my initial exchange with Downing Street's then director of communications over Mandelson failing vetting on 11 September last year.

[Jack Elsom @JackElsom]

Welfare spending set to rise by £18billion this year to £333billion, before hitting an eye-watering £407billion in 2030/31.

Gulp..

[Simon Hunt @SimonHuntCityAM]

The Plan 2 interest rate is set annually based on...March inflation data 🫣

[The Critic @TheCriticMag]

Remittances sit at the heart of Britain’s migration model, writes James Alexander Smith, yet no one is talking about them
https://t.co/tRzuc3DVMF

[Police Federation of England and Wales @PFEW_HQ]

We’ve written publicly to @ZackPolanski following his comments on recent Elbit protest verdicts.

Welcoming outcomes while failing to acknowledge a police officer being seriously injured matters.

Empathy for those harmed in the line of duty should never be optional.

[Luis Cook 🇬🇧 @Luis_Cook1]

A lot of talk about whether or not Reform are slipping in the polls and I’d point to this election last night…

Gosport is a Conservative stronghold and they came nowhere ❌

Reform on the other hand went straight to 42.5% and beat the incumbent Lib Dem’s to first place🥇

[Simone Hanna @simonelhanna]

so desperate to sack him she woke up before noon damn

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

The OBR's list of risks in the Budget makes for pretty grim reading

* The tax burden will hit 38.3% of GDP by 2030-31, an all time high. The OBR says that this could 'distort or constrain economic activity by more than expected'

* Council borrowing has increased by £7bn a year, reflecting the pressures of SEND provision. It suggests local authorities will be at risk of going bankrupt in 2027-28

* Welfare spending will continue to rise, with an additional £11bn spending by 2029-30

[Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford]

THE BUDGET 2025

Here's everything we know about today's Budget, from the dozen plus tax rises to the cost-of-living giveaways and increase in spending on welfare:

TAX

* Freezing income tax thresholds for two more years until 2030, raising £8bn to £10bn.

The biggest tax rise in the Budget. Will lead to accusations that Labour has broken manifesto pledge. Will take no of higher rate taxpayers to 10million by 2030 and everyone in receipt of full state pension will pay income tax from 2028

* Tax raid on pensions contributions

Pension contributions under salary sacrifice schemes will be hit with national insurance for both employers and employees. There will be a £2,000 but move could raise as much as £4bn. Concerns it will discourage people from doing right thing and saving for retirement

* Gambling taxes

Reeves is expected to raise around £1billion by increasing taxes on online gambling, physical slot machines and other gambling duties. Horseracing will be exempted. Treasury had hoped to raise £3bn but behavioural impact means it will raise less

* High value property tax

All properties worth £2m plus will be hit with a new charge of around £4,500. Roughly 100,000 properties targeted. Top three bands of council tax will be revalued to work out who to hit with new charge. OBR expected to raise concerns about behavioural impact. Raises around £450m but crucially establishes basis of a new tax for future

* Pay per mile on electric cars

Electric vehicle drivers face new 3p per mile charge on top of other road taxes to make up for falling fuel duty revenues, with average drivers paying £250 a year. Could raise £2bn but highly uncertain. Grants being extended for electric cars but will it hit the transition from petrol and diesel to electric?

* Cash Isas

Reeves will cut the cash-free Isa allowance from £20,000 to £12,000 in a bid to encourage people to invest in stocks and shares. Lenders have raised concerns this could push up mortgage rates

* The milkshake tax

Pre-packaged milkshakes and lattes will be hit by sugar tax. Threshold for levy will also be cut from 5g/100ml to 4.5g/100ml, hitting dozens more popular brands including Pepsi, Irn Bru and Fanta

* The tourism tax

A £2 a night levy on overnight stays in hotels and other holiday rentals, including Airbnbs. Brings Britain into line with other countries but concerns it will deter tourism. Money will go to Mayors or other strategic authorities

* Cycle to work tax

Buyers of expensive manual and electric bicycles through salary sacrifice schemes will have benefits cut sharply. Concerns it has become a tax break for high earners who take '£4,000 e-bikes for weekend rides in the Surrey Hills'

* Business rates

Reeves will make a temporary discount for small retail and hospitality premises permanent but fund the move with a tax raid on properties with a rateable value of £500,000. It will hit big warehouse businesses ie Amazon but also leading supermarkets, which had hoped to secure an exemption

* Shein/ Temu crackdown

Reeves will scrap a widely criticised tax loophole that benefits Chinese ecommerce giants, but not until 2029. Retailers wanted it to come sooner

* Taxi tax

Reeves will impose VAT on Uber, Bolt and other private hire taxi firms in a move that they say could push up fares by 15%. They pay a reduced rate of VAT under a scheme originally set up for travel agents and tour operators

COST OF LIVING

* Energy bills

Could be the 'rabbit' of the Budget, although Reeves doesn't like rabbits (metaphorically speaking). Reeves will cut energy bills by removing green levies. No 10 had wanted a £170 cut, Treasury thought £80 was more realistic. Not clear where they have landed

* National living wage

A 4 per cent rise in the national living wage to £12.71. A bigger rise of 8.5% for 18 to 20-year-olds taking their pay to £10.85. Reeves says move will reward work, but left-leaning think tanks are concerned it will price young people out of work

* Fuel duty

Reeves is expected to extend the fuel duty freeze for yet another year, which has not become a near-permanent fixture of the tax system. Will cost around £3bn. But does it make sense at a time when govt is imposing new levy on electric cars?

* Rail fare freeze

In a surprise move, Reeves has frozen rail fares for the first time in 30 years instead of raising them in line with inflation by 4.8%

* The two-child cap on welfare

The two-child benefit cap will be scrapped outright. Reeves spent months resisting the move, arguing it was too expensive, only to have her hand forced by strength of feeling on backbenches. Will cost £3bn

* Uprating benefits

Benefits will rise in line with inflation. Move was fully expected but comes at a significant cost - £6billion

* The welfare/ winter fuel u-turns

Reeves will have to foot the cost of her seismic u-turns on winter fuel payments and plans to overhaul the welfare system, which came in at more than £6bn

PUBLIC SPENDING

* NHS investment

Reeves will announce more funding for the NHS as Labour seeks to cut waiting lists. How much is unclear yet, but it is expected to be one of the headline measures in the Budget

* No return to austerity

Reeves has insisted that there will be no return to austerity and public spending will be protected. However there will be a cut in the public spending profile at the end of this Parliament, for 2029/30, which is likely to be viewed with scepticism by the markets given Reeves's reluctance to pare back public spending. It is a mañana promise of spending today and unspecified cuts tomorrow

[Adam Wren @aswren]

“Since civil service decided it should be done independently of ministers & Spads”

[Nadhim Zahawi @nadhimzahawi]

Did you think about my children? @AngelaRayner breaks my heart seeing anybody distressed about their children, but, the hypocrisy really does hurt. 💔

[Tom Jones @93vintagejones]

The bin strike has been going on for over six months now, btw.