Josh

Salomon Brothers 90-98 Bond Portfolio Analysis Government Desk - Long Bond Trader Derivatives - Short-Dated Options Trading (Head) Caxton Assoc Hedge Fund

[Josh @JoshMandel6ll]

You do not plant a seed in the ground and then dig it up every day to see that it is growing.

#Bitcoin will grow

[Josh @JoshMandel6ll]

@StuFrugal What’s your current read on the markets—leaning more into crypto, ETFs, or stocks lately?

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

This is the way the Banana Zone looked like when I was a kid.

@RaoulGMI

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

I tried to catch the steam emanating from the hot springs, but I mist.

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

The President is supposed to respect the independence of the FED. You might want to "End The FED", but as long as it exists, let's not put the sitting president in charge.

One day, this system of pork-fueled politics, feeding the mouths of thousands of career politicians, their aids, spokesmen, lobbyists, pundits, and spin doctors will be replaced by a Constitutional Monarchy, serving at the will of the peoples' direct support.

Consider this another bit of vision from the future ... Mr Trump may see himself to be the first new King of this new system. But the King shall SERVE THE PEOPLE, not HIMSELF and his EGO.

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

Thanks Colleen! Whatever you can do to join the party is appreciated! Too bad I can't just send you a share, the same way a token is transmitted.

One day, MSTR shares are going to be tokenized and those who are struggling to pull themselves out of war-torn regions, living in impoverished conditions in third-world countries are going to be able to buy a Micro Sat, a token share ownership of Strategy 🐝

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

After the whole 84,000 on 3/14 thing, I am going to flip a lid if we end up at $BTC = 84,000 and $MSTR = $314

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

I have a sneaking suspicion that @saylor knows exactly what he's doing in this regard. Allowing the free borrowing of Bitcoin by short-sellers and market makers over time creates a complacency, some might say "dependency". Pulling the plug on this "repo" (borrowing) is what we used to call "Boxing the stock" (like putting it in a locked box). I would not be shocked to find that we come to a crossroads where slowly, and then suddenly, MSTR's "supply" vanishes into the box.

The bigger the supply, THE BIGGER THE SUPPLY SHOCK.

@ejuline

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

I am glad you caught that ... it's a clever, tricky statement, akin to the Venus flytrap thinking "I want those flies to dine on my nectar!"

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

Alright ... I wanted you to let it go. Go ahead and write up one of your famous case studies buddies. Let the people spend a day reading it versus five minutes digesting a simple post like mine or many others I have read. Then let's put this to bed once and for all with a Poll. Unless you've got TeddyBitcoins in your corner, you're toast.

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

Despite my attempts at "advice" or "constructive observation" yesterday/today with respect to Michael Strategy (MSTR), I will be exercising and taking delivery of another 6,000 shares today.

I am not one to "talk my book". I'd rather try to walk it in the right direction if I can. Let the multiple go!

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

A Picture is worth a thousand words. During the peak of ATM sales, MSTR was able to lay off a lot of shares at a MSTR/IBIT ratio of approximately 7.0

Strategy B finds itself with a relatively high hurdle to clear of approximately $97,000 (in Bitcoin price terms) in order to generate positive EPS.

As the chart shows, the ratio spiked up to 10 during the MSTR blow-off top of $543. But it shows that heavy selling (ATM and short) from this point pushed MSTR decidedly and persistently lower over the next several months.

Bitcoin was able to maintain a bit of altitude ABOVE 97K for a while, until some unforeseen push to 84K occurred. But note that THERE IS A DEFINITE CORELLATION BETWEEN THE "MSTR BASIS TRADE" ($MSTR / $IBIT) AND THE PRICE LEVEL OF BITCOIN ITSELF. In short MSTR "richness" brings out Bitcoin buyers. It appears from looking at this chart, that we really need to "allow" MSTR to richen again, at least up to MSTR/IBIT = 9.0 if we want to see a sustained move above $100,000 in $BTC.

I am not normally a diehard NGU man (that's @dotkrueger) but at this time, I am feeling some urgency because the Big Print
(@LawrenceLepard) in $BTC is sorely needed if there's still hope (hint: my crystal ball says there IS) that $MSTR can generate positive earnings and qualify for S&P 500 inclusion.

@ejuline @saylor

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

Thank you, James, (@btcjvs)

An FTD occurs when a person selling the stock short finds that he cannot actually "get the borrow" on the stock before the end of day next business day.

US stocks are settled on a T+1 cycle as of May 28, 2024. This means most securities transactions, including stocks, bonds, municipal securities, ETFs, and certain mutual funds, settle one business day after the trade date.

A full day after selling the stock short, it can be quite unnerving to receive a notice that you are failing to deliver shares to the recipient. It typically means that many of the freely "borrowable" shares have already been lent out to other short sellers.

While 13.5% is hardly GME - like levels of short-interest, FTDs indicate that those types of investors who readily lend out shares to short sellers for a small fee (@BTCBullRider and @Z06Z07) have been tapped.

The shorts are building ... you can't see them yet but ...

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

The corporation cannot continue to flood the market with its own Class A Common, which is what ATM (shelf-registration) is. Every share sold during this down trade has been a gift to the front-running short-selling market maker!

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

A slice of apple pie is $2.50 in Jamaica and $3.00 in the Bahamas. These are the pie rates of the Caribbean.

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

and they would each be shorted versus Bitcoin. MSTR, simply because of its size and inevitability for S&P 500 index inclusion would rule the roost while game stop shorts would add to the bitcoin buying frenzy.

The point is that these would be sucker bets for the arb guys who would be relentlessly acquiring bitcoin at the rate they could borrow shares. For each share of MSTR @saylor has sold, he has ALREADY spent the money on Bitcoin. For short sellers, they would effectively be spending the same amount AGAIN on bitcoin to hedge their short. That's the thing about shares. You can sell em more than once.

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

It's possible to get these cutsie (symbolic) numbers out as LOWS when the market maker extends down hard to touch his own bid after plowing through any other bids (been there, done that) .... AND/or it could be a sign of a bottom (if you believe in a bit of magic).

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

They're BOTH cheating! I didn't have that on my Bingo card!

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

For the record, I understand .... I totally broke the matrix from the inside. I know I can fix it with a little help from my friends (hello @Saylor)

[Josh Man @JoshMandell6]

Like @JeffBooth, I believe that wide distribution of Bitcoin is essential to its successful adoption. There comes a point where more is less and 1MM could theoretically be less moaty (I love that you just made up the crazy word). Even if not, slowing the pace until we reach higher multiples serves us all. What do they say about time preference?