Joshua Fong. CFA.

My Trading Journal & Mkt Views. Nothing to sell. eToro live portfolio My views, not advice. DYOR.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

20261111 Market Review
• "Generals always fight the last war, Speculators always trade the last market" Author unknown
• Coreweave seemingly reignited some animal spirits and gave hope that the AI trade is back. And then the market rallied hard today, trying to give us a "Follow Through Day". Technically we have FTD today but I really don't like the look of it. Let me explain.
• Look at the attached QQQ chart. Yes we have FTD and volume signature but FTD is not an on-off switch where just because FTD has occurred, the market is safe now. It is just ONE of many factors you need to consider. What is useful about the FTD though, is that today's low now gives us a line in the sand. If this was a true FTD, the market must not take out today's low (ie 683 on the QQQ). Watching the market behaviour from here will be the tell.
• There is a TON of resistance above. We are now approaching the declining 21EMA, the declining Anchored VWAP from highs, and most importantly, the big resistance gap marked in red. Even if we overcome these, the declining 50SMA is going to exert pressure.
• I can easily make a case that the market is just forming a LOWER HIGH at the moment. Hence the downtrend is still in force.
• Digging into the internals of the market. What bounced today? All the stocks that were thrashed the last few weeks! The only exception is maybe $AMD and it is showing some leadership qualities. But the rest of the AI trade is still looking disastrous. After a sharp selloff like this, a fierce bounce is completely normal and the selloff can easily resume. Will it? I don't know. I just know I don't trust this bounce yet. Moreover, the bounce happened at a very logical support gap around 650.
• Look at the SMH semiconductor ETF. Even with today's bounce it is still trading BELOW its 200SMA.
• Look back at the March 2026 selloff. When we had the FTD, I was very excited that a low had been formed. Why not now? Because I am not seeing good setups in the typical growth stocks of the AI trade. They are bouncing hard, but they are not setting up. Back in March, when the market was bottoming, stocks like DELL, NBIS, HPE etc were already making higher lows or even near highs and when the market turned around, they broke out of their bases and went higher. This time round, they are just bouncing off oversold levels. Nothing to get me excited.
• On the other hand, the leading stocks are still healthcare, medical, financial exchanges, retail etc. It is good that these are still healthy but I am not expecting a super bull run when these are the stocks leading the charge.
• Which brings me to how I started this post. Generals always fight the last war because they learned lessons from that, and assume future wars will be fought like that. Think trench warfare in WWI, and then the tank and fighter planes came along in WWII. Think WWII and how the Americans assumed airpower will win the day in Vietnam. Anyway, investors fall into the same trap. They look at the leaders of the last bull run, and now that they have come off in price, assume that these leaders will lead back up again. Just think back to COVID or any of the past bull runs. You seldom get the same leaders coming back to lead again. Yes they might rebound, but hardly the leader.
• Anyway, too many words already. I wonder if I write too much sometimes and when people see there are so many words they don't bother to read. I was toying with the idea of making this a short video instead, let me know what you think. All I am trying to do in this post is perhaps encourage you to have an open mind and don't just buy every dip. I could be wrong, but I would rather buy safely and miss the first rebound.
• Have a look at the charts of the companies that are currently in my portfolio. You will notice they are all sloping upwards from left to right in recent months, nothing below their 50 or 200SMA.
• All the best.
This content is the personal view of the author and for information only. I am sharing my thoughts, definitely not suggesting you do anything with it. Not financial advice. Asset values can go up or down. Capital at risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

Built with data from @etoro One of my favourite features might be the insti-early tab which basically picks up companies that have seen institutional interest but the market has not caught on yet. This is a datapoint you can’t quite get on any other screening platform that I’m aware of.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

I've built Insti-Alignment Radar with @base44! https://t.co/pofSIlYuXD
I wanted to generate a quick and easy market regime app, and then generate some momentum driven stock ideas.

Credit to @Peoplewish who taught me that you can use the higher timeframe momentum to detect the lower timeframe trend. And @NickDrendel recently for having the idea of using the outperformance of the QQQ vs SPY as a rough indicator of risk on vs risk off.

Any feedback welcome!

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

@1ChartMaster This stock kept coming up on my screen and I kept thinking it’s Groupon so I just ignored it!!!! Shucks

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

You hear me talk about follow through day a lot. I didn’t invent it. Check out this explainer by the legend @mwebster1971

[Mike Webster @mwebster1971]

Follow Through Day Watch 2026🤣

Tomorrow is Day 4…for all things FTD…👇

WRO #10 Follow Through Day Part 1 https://t.co/bMEfitx6dy via @YouTube

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

@AtlasShrug1 I like Arkady. I also like the Company. But even for great companies there is a "right time" to buy, and a time to hold off.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

@Venu_7_ Thanks for your regular posts like this.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

Totally. My first trading mentor, Ray Barros, mentioned it all the time and this was more than 15 years ago!

[Nick Schmidt @NickSchmidt]

I recommend this book all the time!

Absolute must read.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

@TedHZhang @RichardMoglen @Deepvue its getting better and better. I was keeping my TradingView as a backup but seems it may not be needed much longer....

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

@RichardMoglen @Deepvue yeah i would love to see that happening too. @jfsrev is a legend. Get him on the mic more often Richard! there will be so much gold

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

A trend is weakening when it’s progress requires more effort in volume and time.

[Trader Mike @tradermike1234]

Once you conquer trading you will never have a single financial worry again

If that doesn't give you unlimited drive, I don't know what will

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

@Venu_7_ Added to SPOT and started ISRG today. Hope I wasnt being too impatient

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

20261109 Is the correction over?

Short answer, in my opinion: no.

Even though today's rebound has been very strong, it is to be totally expected during corrections. I've mentioned this several times in my recent posts. Therefore, I will not be chasing any of the AI-related stocks because they are all still very damaged and rallying into declining moving averages.

I started this post with the question: "Is the correction over?" Actually, that shouldn't be the question that you ask. Because trying to pinpoint the bottom is exactly what will keep getting us into trouble. to trade well, your mindset must not be trying to pick the bottom or the top. In other words, trying to buy the exact bottom or to try to sell the exact top. Instead, your process must allow you to get into the meat of the move. That's all.

So, be patient. Wait for the market to tell you that it has formed the bottom. Past tense . What I'll be watching for is a follow-through day, and the earliest we can get it is maybe Wednesday or Thursday. In the meantime, nothing to do in terms of the AI trades.

I have been increasing exposure, but they are all allocated to sectors which are displaying relative strength. Nothing in the tech sector yet. Retail, medical devices, some financials, biotech .

All the best.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

@Dorman06 @MktInsight7777 Greg you make a lot of sense and know what you are talking about. No point trying to convince these folks. Let them learn through their wallet.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

Remember this post?

This is the reason I use charts and watch the price action so much. Someone always knows something and acts on it.

Tech is already in a confirmed downtrend. And recently we have news coming out and the market reacting badly to it. First you get smells that tell you something is off. Then you start seeing more and more of what it is that is smelling bad. And it won't be confined to $NVDA. You will just see more and more bad news coming out from all angles, it's a feature of bear markets.

This is not a post to knock Jensen Huang. He has my utmost respect despite the seeming moral failure. I wish him and his family well. Oh, and nvda too. No position.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

This is why I use charts so much

[Za @ZaStocks]

If you don’t think the market sniffed out and started pricing in the midterm election results and Jensen news to some degree as the AI trade nuked over the last five weeks, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

The man, the legend. Stan Weinstein. Must watch

[Richard Moglen @RichardMoglen]

The podcast is out now!

Watch here: https://t.co/7Hb6m9he6X

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

Looks like this is aging well.....

[Culper @CulperResearch]

NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.

[Joshua Fong. CFA. @JoshuaFong_X]

If you're just starting out on trading, this is a great handbook. Well written and organised and covers most of what you need. I would recommend reading this a few times rather than reading more books. Go deep.

[Ameet Rai @AmeetRai]

The Trader's Handbook - 648 ratings and 4.8 average rating.

Quietly helping 1000s of traders, with over 30,000 copies sold now.

Some day we will do an update to this book to make it even better.

Grab a copy: https://t.co/HpaAOz6z3O