Josh

Threads are not investment advice. I tweet for my own clarity of thought.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

https://t.co/TWerQaLrPW
$GMS.LN
2023 EBITDA US$86M
24E US$90M+
25E US$95M+
Utilization rate 94%, day rate US$30.2k
Net leverage ratio 3.1 v 4.4 in 2022.

Remains the largest position in my portfolio

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[John Galt @AtlasShrug1]

Nobody is going to look at it that way. Certainly give you credit for the Tanbreez deal and pivoting, to allow for Li prices to recover over time and give Wolfsberg time to play out. There really is nothing to argue about, if you understand finance you will do what I have suggested, of you son’t then you will continue to piddle around instead of dramatically shrinking the share base so we can all make a lot of money. And if you arent going to do that, the at least dividend us out the cash, we don’t need you to hold it earning bank interest for us, we can do that ourselves or put the money into something to earn a higher return. And we certainly don’t want any of that cash going to acquire more shares in related party companies or crap shoot exploration projects.

You are making this much harder than it has to be. Cancel the options, stop diluting, shrink the base considerably, and run CRML as you have been. And if there are any acquisition opportunities you do it inside of CRML because the company cost capital is much lower as the equity price reflects perceived NAV at any given point in time, whereas that is not the case at @EuropeanLithium.

Just do the right thing for God’s sake, there is no sense in being a maverick here and continuing to make poor capital allocation decisions. It just makes you look foolish.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@AtlasShrug1 @TonySage7237 @vunguye50157456 @EuropeanLithium Don’t understand why can’t he see this. Very low hanging fruit that would benefit insiders so much too.

Perpetual dilution and poor capital allocation policies lead to destruction of value for themselves.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@AtlasShrug1 @cekdrew https://t.co/ElvSD3qpxf

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@MikeComish @grok @Meglodon904 @stockplaymaker1 A win is a win. congrats!

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@MikeComish @grok @Meglodon904 @stockplaymaker1 yess they do. I am involved in this one!

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@MikeComish @grok @Meglodon904 @stockplaymaker1 no worries, thanks for sharing regardless! Been trying to find special situations in the rare earth space so this piqued my interest :).

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@grok @MikeComish @Meglodon904 @stockplaymaker1 @MikeComish i seem to get different results. Are you able to ask Grok to provide you with the source of the data?
I tried to comb through the filings and couldn't find information on the 11M shares either. Might have missed out.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@MikeComish @Meglodon904 @stockplaymaker1 @grok does TMRC own USAR shares?

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@MikeComish @Meglodon904 @stockplaymaker1 Hi there, where did you see TMRC owning over 11M shares of USAR? Thanks!

[Josh @Joshzkq]

https://t.co/TWerQaLrPW

[Josh @Joshzkq]

$GMS.LN another guidance upgrade with management consistently executing well. Yet share price is flat YTD, trading at 2x P/FCF, 4.32x EV/EBITDA vs peers at 7-9x with non-existent free cash flow. ??

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@resilience888 @ToffCap final transaction proceeds for the Disposals are known and could vary from the estimates made.

so it is accounted for?

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@resilience888 @ToffCap including redundancy payments to be in the order of $11 million to $13 million. The final tax charges included in these costs  will be determined once 2024 tax submissions are completed and agreed and ...

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@updating_priors Hey, I’m sorry, I meant adjusted EPS in FY2026.
Adj EPS in 2025 of $1. 5x gets us to $5 and still improving.
They are likely to reach their normalised performance in 26/27, ~$1.5-$2 EPS.
There’s still room for opex & NCOs to go.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

$OPRT trading at 1-2x P/E 0.20+ P/B as if they are going bankrupt tomorrow.
Cost cuts are already effected, board reshuffling, quality of book improving. Fundamentals are inflecting while valuation remains sleepy.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@updating_priors Jan 25 tranche paid off. OPRT can focus on deleveraging the 28 tranche.
At 15%, $35M of interest p.a. + principal repayment. Their improving organic cash flow should not have too much issues servicing this.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@updating_priors No near term credit risk. Maturity pushed back. More room for OPRT to get back to normalcy. Underlying business (Q3) is still improving, est $1 EPS 2024, probably at least $1.5 2025.
Dilution isn’t great but fair trade-off to mitigate what the market was fearing - default.

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@MarketShaker9 @Orakel_O Curious about this too

[Josh @Joshzkq]

@MikeFritzell Congrats!