JOX

Asymmetric conviction in what's inevitable. Crypto, AI, stocks & alternative assets, before consensus.

[JOX @JoxCap]

Oil isn't going to $150...

Brent was sitting around $111 today.

Three weeks ago it was $70…

https://t.co/qHlZh5LZGd

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says that they are switching from "reciprocal hits" to "continuous strikes" and warns that they will drive oil prices to $200/barrel, per Reuters.

Details include:

1. Iran says the US will ​not be able ​to control oil prices

2. "We won't allow even one liter ​of oil to ​reach the US, Israel, and its partners" an Iranian military spokesperson said

3. "Any vessel or tanker bound to them will be ​a legitimate ​target," he adds

4. Iran appears to be shifting their military strategy as oil prices have declined

US oil prices are now nearing $90/barrel again.

[JOX @JoxCap]

@BSCNews @CryptoHayes Lol that’s a change of tune

[JOX @JoxCap]

Tbh crypto feels very much alive despite equities running and BTC not keeping pace…

I can’t see how everyone is so bearish

All the ingredients that made crypto great and that were the vision of the space are we all coming together.

It’s a vibe but you you’ve got to immerse yourself in the space to get it

[JOX @JoxCap]

@0xRugova I’m grateful, but there’s always that part of me that says win harder 🤣

[JOX @JoxCap]

@0xRugova @bittybitbit86 I mean the above is transparent as it gets… most guys be out here saying nothing or talking about loading up and HODL

The guy who tells you…

I’m up a Rari and might cop one soon is more trustworthy

Just saying.

Damn, I miss CCF

[JOX @JoxCap]

@0xRugova @ZanaVentures Personally I’d lean towards the Huracan

But, mine baby mine!
And have them all 😉🤣

[JOX @JoxCap]

@princeharry_za

[JOX @JoxCap]

@0xRugova I can feel the good health oozing out this pic

[JOX @JoxCap]

@BassManTV @0xKant_ NOCK NOCK…

Who’s there?…

“ENTRIES”

ENTRIES WHO?….

“ENTRIES ARE ONLY GONNA GET HARDER”

[JOX @JoxCap]

@KobeissiLetter I’m not surprised

I don’t even have words for that design…

[JOX @JoxCap]

@platacrypto Always happens when any narrative runs… people always chase the lowest cap and newest sh*t coins 😂

[JOX @JoxCap]

@SebastianWols17 Happy birthday G, many blessings 🙌

[JOX @JoxCap]

If this Iran deal lands, it isn’t the ceasefire to watch…

IT’S FROZEN ASSETS COMING BACK ONLINE.

Terms being reported seem palatable.

▪️Ceasefire across all fronts.

▪️No targeting of infrastructure.

▪️Hormuz reopened under a joint monitoring mechanism.

▪️Sanctions relief phased against compliance.

▪️Seven days to begin follow-on talks.

Markets do the obvious thing first…

Brent has roughly $30-$40 per barrel of war premium left in it.

Strait reopening under formal monitoring is the cleanest catalyst to bleed that out fast.

Energy equities give back the geopolitical bid they’ve carried since February.

Refiners catch a bid as crack spreads normalise.

Gold sells off into the headline.

Dollar likely softens as the safe haven trade unwinds.

Equities rip… especially anything with European industrial exposure that’s been sitting on the energy cost overhang.

IMO timing of this isn’t accidental…

SpaceX and OpenAI are lining up to IPO into the most stretched equity tape since 1999.

Long end yields haven’t been this rich since the run-up to the GFC.

The administration needs equities holding up through these IPOs.

The banks need their fees printing at peak multiples.

A ceasefire headline does both jobs in a single news cycle.

Convenient…

It’s a bubble, and the people running it know exactly when to pull the catalysts.

Make no mistake, there’s plenty of room to run before it bursts… by now you should know my position.

The frozen assets I mentioned, sit underneath all this.

Iran has somewhere in the region of 100 billion in assets frozen across South Korea, Japan, Iraq, the UK, and the eurozone.

Phased sanctions relief means that money starts moving again.

Not all of it straight off the bat, but enough that the flow matters.

A regime starved of hard currency for three years suddenly has working capital…

What do you think happens?

Some of it ends up in dollar markets, some in gold, some in crypto via the channels Iran has used to route around sanctions for years.

More money flooding the system.

Now back to a freely transiting Hormuz…

War risk premiums on tankers crossing the Strait have been running at multiples of the pre-February rate.

Those collapse on day one of formal monitoring.

Charter rates normalise.

Supply chains running through the Gulf get a working capital tailwind that shows up in Q3 earnings.

But!

The risk to all of this is the nuclear file.

Tehran has offered 12 years of suspension, Washington wants 20.

Even the cleanest version of this deal carries a sunset risk the market will eventually have to price.

For anyone holding assets through this, the deal pays twice.

Once on the headline, once on the liquidity that follows.

Frozen assets are the move that runs the longest and the one the fewest are positioned for.

[JOX @JoxCap]

@0xRugova No doubt you would…

Been a real one since day one

Trust me, if I ever make a move there, you’ll be my first point of call 😅

Few locations in mind, but have to say this one does come across appealing 🤜

[JOX @JoxCap]

@KAPOTHEGOAT01 Dip was nice

Silly jeets

[JOX @JoxCap]

@KAPOTHEGOAT01

[JOX @JoxCap]

@CryptoSGiants No nocking about 🤜